Hormuz Traffic Stuck at Three Ships a Day as Insurance and Spill Risks Escalate
The Strait of Hormuz remains open to limited vessel movements, but the latest traffic data show that commercial activity has again fallen to an exceptionally low level. Preliminary tracking data recorded only three vessel transits per day from July 22 through July 24, including the VLCC New Giant carrying two million barrels of Iraqi Basrah crude and the laden Romania Prosperity, which later appeared outside the strait near Fujairah with Murban crude. At the same time, the operating environment around the waterway has acquired two additional complications. Marine insurers now have model policy wording allowing cover on a vessel to cease when an owner makes a payment connected with passage through Iranian waters, reflecting concerns over sanctions and terrorism legislation, while satellite monitoring has identified oil leaking from two tankers near Iran’s Larak Island. One spill is associated with the previously attacked Greek-owned tanker Kavomaleas, while the identity of the second AIS-dark vessel has not been confirmed. The developments leave Hormuz functioning with limited traffic while physical security, insurance, compliance and environmental risks continue to overlap.
Operator Impact Snapshot
Vessel traffic remains severely constrained while route selection, war-risk pricing, sanctions exposure and damage from previous attacks continue to complicate commercial passage.
Preliminary tracking recorded only three commodity-vessel transits through the strait on each of three consecutive days.
Kpler’s wider crossing dataset fell from roughly 45 per day during the truce period to about 13 after fighting resumed.
Most recent broader traffic has shifted onto the Iranian-defined route rather than the Omani alternative.
Additional war-risk pricing remains at levels capable of adding millions of dollars to a single vessel transit.
Satellite monitoring identified leakage from Kavomaleas and a second unidentified AIS-dark tanker.
Hormuz Shipping Risk Dashboard
The latest operating picture combines extremely low visible commodity traffic with concentrated routing, expensive war-risk cover and a new sanctions-related insurance issue around transit payments.
| Indicator | Latest Reading | Reference Point | Current Situation | Operator Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commodity-Vessel Transits | 3/day July 22–24 | Preliminary tracking showed exactly three transits on each of three consecutive days. |
SEVERELY REDUCED The latest narrow commodity-vessel series remains near standstill despite individual crude and bulk movements. |
Tanker owners, LNG operators, commodity traders, Gulf exporters and chartering desks. |
| Broader Vessel Crossings | ~13/day post-truce average | Approximately 45 crossings per day between June 7 and July 7. |
-70% Kpler’s wider risk-and-compliance dataset shows that the recovery achieved during the truce has largely reversed. |
All Gulf-connected commercial shipping, port planners, terminals and marine-service providers. |
| Route Concentration | ~90% Iranian route share | During the truce the split was closer to 60% Iranian route and 40% Omani route. |
CONCENTRATED The vessels still crossing have shifted heavily toward the Iranian-defined corridor. |
Navigation teams, insurers, sanctions teams and operators assessing route-specific exposure. |
| Transit-Payment Insurance Clause | Cover can cease new LMA model wording | Published July 23 for use by marine hull underwriters. |
COMPLIANCE RISK Under the model clause, a financial or non-financial payment connected with passage can cause cover on the relevant vessel to cease because of sanctions or terrorism-law exposure. |
Owners, managers, insurers, lenders, compliance officers and charterers arranging Hormuz passage. |
| Additional War-Risk Premium | 7.5–10% of hull value | Approximately 1% to 3% of hull value only weeks earlier. |
VERY HIGH Insurance can now represent a multi-million-dollar single-voyage cost for high-value tankers and gas carriers. |
Tanker owners, LNG carriers, cargo interests, underwriters, lenders and voyage-charter counterparties. |
| Kavomaleas Spill | Active slick near Larak Island | The Greek-owned tanker was previously attacked south of the strait and later towed into Iranian waters. |
POLLUTION Satellite observations show oil leaking from the vessel and drifting toward the Iranian islands. |
Salvors, pollution-response contractors, insurers, coastal authorities and ship managers. |
| Second Tanker Spill | Identity unknown AIS-dark tanker | The vessel appears to have remained in approximately the same location since May. |
MONITOR A second slick has been detected near Larak, with satellite data providing more visibility than public AIS. |
Environmental response teams, coastal authorities, insurers and maritime-intelligence providers. |
| AIS-Dark Vessel Activity | 19 vessels Windward identification | A large cluster was reported on the Iranian side with a smaller group detected in the southern lane. |
VISIBILITY GAP Public AIS alone does not represent all traffic currently moving through the strait. |
Fleet-security teams, insurers, commodity desks, port agents and sanctions-screening providers. |
| New Giant Crude Transit | 2.0M bbl Iraqi Basrah crude | The VLCC exited Hormuz on July 23 and was reported heading toward Rizhao, China. |
PASSAGE OCCURRED Large crude shipments are still capable of moving through the strait, but individual passages remain exceptional compared with normal traffic. |
Iraqi exporters, Asian refiners, VLCC operators and crude-trading desks. |
Hormuz Transit Exposure Analyzer
Compare restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic with higher-throughput conditions while estimating vessel war-risk costs and the time required to move a waiting fleet through the chokepoint. Traffic and insurance assumptions are fully adjustable.
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