Brent Breaks $100 as Bunker Costs Surge and 2027 Outlook Shifts
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Marine fuel markets moved sharply higher on September 9 as renewed attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure in the Middle East pushed front-month Brent crude to a $101.21-per-barrel close and WTI to $96.05, their highest closes since May 22. Bunker markets remain under additional pressure from constrained refinery output and depleted product inventories: Singapore VLSFO was assessed around $856.50 per metric ton and LSMGO around $1,283 per metric ton on September 9, while fuel-oil inventories across Singapore, Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and Fujairah have been running about 30% below three-year seasonal averages. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's September outlook now forecasts Brent averaging about $90 per barrel during the second half of 2026 before declining to an average of $74 in 2027 as Middle East production recovers and global inventories rebuild.
Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Snapshot
Crude has returned above $100 while tight refinery capacity and reduced fuel-oil inventories continue to amplify the pressure on marine bunkers.
Front-month Brent gained 3.4% and closed at its highest level since May 22.
U.S. crude also reached its highest closing level since late May.
The main 0.50% sulfur bunker grade remains elevated at the world's largest bunkering hub.
Distillate marine fuel remains particularly expensive as global diesel markets tighten.
Energy Aspects expects the third-quarter fuel-oil market to move into a significant supply deficit.
Bunker Price & Forward Market Board
Current hub pricing shows a large regional spread, while forward markets continue to price lower VLSFO levels later in 2026 if physical supply conditions improve.
| Bunker Hub | HSFO | VLSFO | MGO / LSMGO | VLSFO-HSFO Spread | Latest Move | Current Market Condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | $650 USD / MT | $852 USD / MT | $1,267 USD / MT | $202 scrubber spread |
VLSFO +$5 LSMGO +$13 during the latest East of Suez session. |
Asia remains particularly exposed to reduced Gulf fuel-oil supply. Singapore imports more than half of roughly 1 million bpd of fuel-oil demand, while regional inventories remain below normal seasonal levels. |
| Rotterdam | $590 USD / MT | $697 USD / MT | $1,380 USD / MT | $107 scrubber spread |
VLSFO +$3 LSMGO rose $9 in the latest European session. |
European distillates remain exceptionally expensive relative to residual fuels as diesel inventories stay constrained and refinery margins remain elevated. |
| Fujairah | $657 USD / MT | $865 USD / MT | $1,468 USD / MT | $208 scrubber spread |
VLSFO +$21 Sharpest VLSFO increase among the major Asian hubs in the latest session. |
Conventional bunker availability is tight across all grades as Strait of Hormuz disruption directly affects supply into the UAE market. |
| Houston | $543 USD / MT | $730 USD / MT | $1,327 USD / MT | $187 scrubber spread |
VLSFO +$19 LSMGO rose $54 during the latest Americas session. |
Demand has been firm and prompt supply somewhat tight. Recent market indications placed HSFO and VLSFO lead times around five to seven days. |
Bunker Forward-Curve Voyage Cost Analyzer
Compare today's bunker cost with current Singapore VLSFO forward-market levels or build a custom fuel-price scenario for an upcoming voyage.