HomeSupertanker Ordering Surges to 25-Year High as VLCC Owners Bet on Longer Oil Routes

Supertanker Ordering Surges to 25-Year High as VLCC Owners Bet on Longer Oil Routes

September 18, 2026

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Shipowners have ordered more than twice as many Very Large Crude Carriers in 2026 as they did during all of 2025, pushing supertanker contracting to its highest level in at least 25 years. Signal Group counts 217 VLCC orders so far this year versus 93 in 2025, while Allied Shipbroking counts 164 versus 83, reflecting differences between shipping databases but the same sharp acceleration in contracting. The investment exceeds $20 billion, with a typical new VLCC currently costing around $130 million. The ordering wave coincides with longer crude trading routes caused by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, growing Atlantic Basin exports to Asia, record tanker freight markets and an aging fleet in which roughly one-fifth of VLCCs are more than 20 years old. Some of the vessels being contracted today will not enter service until 2029 or 2030.

VLCC Newbuilding Market | September 2026

The Supertanker Orderbook Has Changed Fast

Owners are locking in VLCC construction slots several years ahead as crude trades stretch across longer routes, tanker earnings remain elevated and replacement pressure grows across an aging fleet.

2026 Orders
217
Signal Group count through September, versus 93 during all of 2025.
Investment
$20B+
Estimated value committed to the current VLCC ordering wave.
Typical Newbuild
~$130M
Approximate current construction cost for one new VLCC.
Cargo Capacity
~2M bbl
Approximate crude capacity carried by a standard VLCC.
Aged 20+ Years
~20%
Large portion of the existing fleet entering replacement territory.
Longer Oil Voyages Asian and European refiners are sourcing more crude outside the Middle East, increasing tonne-mile demand from the United States, Brazil, Guyana and other Atlantic Basin exporters.
Extra Vessels Tied Up Gulf disruption, waiting time and ship-to-ship transfer patterns are absorbing tanker capacity that would otherwise be available for normal trading.
Fleet Renewal Years of limited replacement ordering have left a significant portion of the VLCC fleet above 20 years of age.
High Freight Earnings VLCC spot earnings recently exceeded $500,000 per day, compared with roughly $132,000 per day before the current conflict intensified in February.
Where the new tonnage lands
2026-27 Previously ordered ships continue entering the fleet.
2028 First major concentration of vessels from the current ordering surge.
2029 Another heavily booked delivery year for recently contracted VLCCs.
2030 Some newly signed contracts are already extending this far.

Inside the 2026 VLCC Ordering Wave

Different ship databases produce different absolute order counts, but all show historically exceptional contracting and a heavy concentration of deliveries in 2028 and 2029.

Indicator Current Reading Previous / Comparison Market Detail Shipyard / Owner Signal
2026 VLCC Orders 217 vessels 93 during all of 2025 25-Year High+ Signal Group dataset. Allied Shipbroking separately counts 164 versus 83 in 2025.
H1 Contracting 177 vessels
54.5M dwt		 Previous annual dwt record: 32.6M dwt in 2006 Record MSI says the first six months alone surpassed every previous full calendar year by deadweight.
Orderbook / Fleet ~35% About 2% in 2023 Rapid Expansion The increase raises the amount of replacement and incremental capacity scheduled later this decade.
2028-29 Deliveries 83% Share of H1 2026 orders Concentrated Most of the current contracting surge does not affect near-term fleet supply immediately.
Chinese Yard Share ~89% H1 2026 VLCC contracts Dominant MSI reports Chinese builders captured nearly nine out of ten VLCC contracts placed in the first half.
Hengli Position ~55% Share of Chinese H1 VLCC contracting cited by MSI Major Yard Hengli has become one of the central beneficiaries of the current crude-tanker investment cycle.
Western Owners ~50% H1 orders Greek-Led MSI says Western owners, primarily Greek companies, accounted for about half of first-half contracting.
Asian Owners ~25% H1 orders Active Asian buyers represented roughly one-quarter of the first-half VLCC order flow.
Newbuild Cost ~$130M Approximately $131.5M quoted for Korean-built VLCCs in June High Capex Individual prices vary by yard, specification, propulsion package and contract timing.
Fleet Age 18-20% VLCCs already above 20 years old Replacement Pressure Frontline cited an industry figure of 18.3%; Veson estimates around 20%.
Spot Freight $500K+/day About $132K/day in February Exceptional Middle East disruption, vessel positioning and longer voyages have sharply tightened available capacity.
Atlantic Supply Growth +2.5M bpd Potential East South America growth through 2030 Long-Haul Vortexa expects Brazil, Guyana and Argentina to drive additional crude flows toward Europe and Asia.
Shipyard Equipment

A larger VLCC backlog expands future demand for main engines, pumps, boilers, inert-gas systems, valves, cargo-control equipment and deck machinery.

Efficiency & Emissions Systems

Recent tanker specifications increasingly include Tier III compliance, efficiency packages, scrubbers on selected vessels and digitally monitored machinery systems.

Lifecycle Supply

Each delivered vessel subsequently creates recurring requirements for coatings, spares, inspections, drydocking, class work, navigation systems and maintenance support.

Important distinction: order counts differ materially between Signal Group, Allied Shipbroking, MSI and other databases because of timing, optional vessels, contract-status definitions and how individual projects are recorded. The direction of the market is consistent across the datasets even where the exact total differs.

VLCC Newbuild Breakeven Rate Calculator

Estimate the daily TCE required to support a new VLCC based on acquisition cost, financing, operating expenses, utilization and residual value.

Estimated Capital Cost / Day $0
Estimated Breakeven TCE $0/day
Annual Revenue at Breakeven $0M

Breakeven Versus Selected Freight Levels

Breakeven
$0
February
$132,000
Recent Spot
$500,000+
Simplified illustrative model only. It excludes bunker costs where not reflected in TCE, commissions, drydock reserves, special surveys, taxes, management fees, off-hire, hedging, balloon payments, refinancing, charter structure and changes in vessel value. Actual financing structures can differ substantially.
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