Middle East Crude Exports Rebound to 12.8M b/d as Hormuz Oil Movements Accelerate
🔔 Subscribe to ShipUniverse Weekly →
Crude exports from the Middle East are on track to average about 12.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in February, according to preliminary Kpler data. The rebound is being driven largely by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and coincides with a sharp acceleration in oil movements through the Strait of Hormuz, where exports are expected to reach about 7.4 million b/d this month. Saudi crude exports alone are projected at roughly 5.4 million b/d, more than double August’s 2.446 million b/d, while loadings from Ras Tanura have climbed to approximately 3.6 million b/d from 929,000 b/d. Kpler tracked 19 VLCCs carrying about 38 million barrels of Saudi crude through Hormuz during the latest week. Despite the recovery, regional exports remain about 6 million b/d below the 18.8 million b/d recorded in February
Oil Exports Are Recovering Faster Than Normal Shipping
Gulf producers have rebuilt a large portion of lost crude exports through heavier use of Hormuz, eastern Saudi terminals, direct VLCC voyages and record ship-to-ship activity outside the strait.
Roughly 58% of the region's current crude exports are now moving through the strait.
Saudi shipments more than doubled from approximately 2.446M b/d in August.
Loadings rose from only 929,000 b/d in August as Saudi Arabia shifted barrels east.
Kpler tracked 19 Saudi-loaded VLCCs exiting Hormuz during the latest week.
Each vessel was carrying roughly 2 million barrels of Saudi crude.
September Export Recovery Board
More oil is reaching the market, but the rebound depends on a shipping system that remains expensive, vessel-intensive and increasingly constrained by offshore transfer capacity.
| Flow Signal | Latest Reading | Previous Reference | Scale of Change | Shipping Mechanism | Constraint Still in Place |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East Crude Exports | SEPTEMBER 12.8M b/d | February: 18.8M b/d | Approximately 68% of the February level has been restored, but the region remains about 6M b/d below its pre-war export rate. | Recovery combines Hormuz shipments with export routes outside the strait from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman. | Physical exports have recovered faster than normal commercial shipping conditions. Security, insurance, freight and vessel availability remain abnormal. |
| Strait of Hormuz Crude Exports | ACCELERATING ~7.4M b/d | Severely constrained earlier in the conflict. | Hormuz now represents roughly 58% of projected September regional crude exports. | Direct VLCC voyages, restricted-AIS movements and shuttle tankers are all contributing to the flow recovery. | Kpler and Reuters figures exclude vessels whose movements cannot be captured because AIS transponders are switched off. |
| Saudi Arabia | SHARP REBOUND ~5.4M b/d | August: 2.446M b/d | Increase of approximately 2.95M b/d, or about 121% month on month. | Saudi Arabia redirected barrels toward its Gulf terminals after damage to the East-West Pipeline disrupted the Yanbu export route. | The eastern shift increases Saudi exposure to Hormuz and absorbs additional tanker capacity. |
| Ras Tanura | LOADINGS SURGE ~3.6M b/d |
August: 929K b/d February: 6.411M b/d |
Up approximately 288% from August, but still roughly 44% below February. | The Saudi Gulf terminal has become the principal release valve for barrels that were previously routed west toward Yanbu. | Higher east-coast loadings must still be matched with safe Hormuz passage and sufficient VLCC availability. |
| Gulf of Oman STS Activity | RECORD LEVEL 7.2M b/d | 2025 average: 0.16M b/d | Kpler's September 26-to-date measure shows extraordinary growth in liquids handled through Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship operations. | Gulf-loaded shuttle tankers transfer cargo to long-haul vessels around Fujairah and Sohar. | The STS number is activity, not unique crude flow. A barrel may be transferred more than once, so it cannot be added directly to Hormuz export volumes. |
| VLCC Freight | EXTREME Up to ~$32/bbl | Pre-war freight represented a much smaller component of delivered crude economics. | Kpler says recent Mideast Gulf VLCC rates reached approximately $32/bbl, equivalent to earnings near $1.2M per day at the peak. | More Hormuz cargoes, restricted vessel availability and inefficient shuttle cycles keep tonnage tight. | Kpler expects freight to ease from record highs, but remain substantially above pre-war levels. |
Export Recovery & VLCC Demand Analyzer
Measure how much Middle East crude supply has returned, how heavily the recovery now depends on Hormuz, and how many VLCC-equivalent cargoes are required to move the entered volumes.
We welcome your feedback, suggestions, corrections, and ideas for enhancements.
Please click here to get in touch