QatarEnergy has extended its force majeure on LNG deliveries to Italian utility Edison into early December 2026, canceling another six cargoes and taking the number of undelivered shipments since April to 35. Edison, one of QatarEnergy’s largest European customers, has replaced 23 of those cargoes so far, mainly with U.S. LNG, and says it can continue supplying its customers. But the extension pushes disruption to a major 6.4-bcm-per-year Qatari contract directly into Europe’s heating season. Qatar’s wider LNG export system remains severely impaired: Reuters reported that Qatari exports were down about 96% by the end of August, with ICIS counting just 18 exported cargoes through August compared with 509 during the same period in 2025. Some Qatar-linked LNG carriers have begun making visible passages through Hormuz again in September, but those movements have not yet restored reliable contracted supply to Europe.
Europe LNG Winter Watch · September 28, 2026
Partial Tanker Movement Is Back. Reliable Qatari Supply Is Not.
Qatar-linked LNG carriers have begun appearing outside Hormuz again,
but QatarEnergy's contractual supply disruption to one of its largest
European customers has now been extended into the opening weeks of winter.
Where the Supply Chain Is Breaking
Source
Ras Laffan
Qatar remains one of the world's largest LNG production centers,
but export volumes have collapsed since the Hormuz disruption began.
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Maritime Constraint
Strait of Hormuz
Some LNG carriers are now making visible transits, but shipping
remains irregular and exposed to substantial security risk.
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European Contract
Adriatic LNG
Edison's long-term Qatari cargoes normally arrive at the offshore
Adriatic LNG receiving terminal in Italy.
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Current Workaround
U.S. Replacement LNG
Edison says it has replaced 23 canceled cargoes so far, turning
mainly to U.S. suppliers.
Edison Cargoes Under Force Majeure
35
QatarEnergy's latest notice adds six more canceled LNG cargoes and
extends the interruption from April through the beginning of December.
Replacement Cargoes
23
Edison says replacements have been sourced mainly from U.S. suppliers.
Qatar Contract
6.4 bcm / Year
Long-term supply agreement representing roughly 10% of Italian gas consumption.
Qatar Export Collapse
-96%
Reuters calculated the decline in Qatari LNG exports by the end of August.
Visible Cargo Count to August
18 vs 509
ICIS export count for January-August 2026 compared with the same 2025 period.
Europe Enters Winter With an Uneven Storage Cushion
EU70.62%
799.1 TWh in storage on September 27.
Germany57.15%
Europe's largest national storage system remains comparatively low.
Netherlands57.14%
Another major Northwest European hub enters winter below 60%.
Italy86.38%
Italy's buffer is considerably stronger despite the missing Qatari cargoes.
France81.97%
French storage also provides a larger seasonal cushion than Germany.
Supply impairment is not the same as a European gas shortage.
Qatar's contracted supply channel remains severely disrupted, but Europe is
replacing cargoes from the Atlantic Basin and drawing on a much larger LNG
import network than it had before the 2022 energy crisis.
Force Majeure Escalation · March → December
Every Extension Has Pushed the Missing Cargoes Closer to Winter
The QatarEnergy-Edison disruption began as a limited spring interruption.
Six months later, the force-majeure window has reached December and the
cumulative canceled-cargo count has more than tripled.
March 27
10 Cargoes
Through Mid-June
First major Edison notice covering April through approximately mid-June.
About 1.6 bcm had already arrived during Q1 before the interruption.
May 25
17 Cargoes
Through Mid-August
Five additional cargoes were removed from the schedule.
Cumulative affected volume reached approximately 2.2 bcm.
June 30
21 Cargoes
Through Early September
Four more cargoes were canceled, lifting affected volume
to approximately 2.7 bcm.
August 28
29 Cargoes
Through Early November
Cumulative affected supply reached about 3.8 bcm.
Edison had replaced 21 cargoes by this point.
September 28
35 Cargoes
Through Early December
Six more cargoes were removed from the schedule.
Edison says 23 replacement cargoes have been secured so far.
Replacement Cargoes Secured
23
Edison has relied mainly on U.S. LNG to replace the missing Qatari supply.
How Europe Is Bridging the Gap
U.S. LNG
Primary Replacement
Atlantic supply has become the principal replacement source for
Edison's disrupted Qatari deliveries.
Flexible Global Cargoes
Europe Bidding Hard
High European prices are attracting flexible cargoes while expensive
LNG suppresses demand in parts of Asia.
Storage
Buffer, Not Replacement
Stored gas protects winter supply but lower inventories mean Europe
has less room to absorb additional supply shocks.
The September 28 Reuters report does not give a new cumulative bcm figure
for all 35 canceled cargoes. Earlier Edison disclosures provide confirmed
volumes through the 29-cargo stage. Any extrapolation of average gas volume per cargo
beyond that point should be treated as a calculation, not an announced company figure.
Ship Universe LNG Replacement Tool
Missing Cargo & Winter Replacement Analyzer
Model the remaining procurement exposure after long-term LNG cargoes are
canceled and substitute supply is sourced. The defaults use Edison's latest
cargo counts and an average cargo-gas equivalent derived from its August disclosure.
cargoes
cargoes
bcm
Derived from Edison's August disclosure of 3.8 bcm across 29 affected cargoes.
Individual cargoes vary.
bcm/year
cargoes/month
€/MWh
Scenario input only. Edison's contractual Qatar LNG price is not public.
Cargoes Still to Replace
12
simple difference between canceled and replacement cargo counts
Implied Gas Volume
1.57 bcm
modeled cargo-count gap × average gas equivalent
Energy Equivalent
16.6 TWh
using approximately 10.55 TWh per bcm of natural gas
Share of Annual Contract
24.6%
modeled gas gap versus the 6.4-bcm annual Qatar contract
Procurement Time
3.0 mo
if replacements can be secured at the entered monthly pace
These bars use cargo counts only. They should not be interpreted as
customer supply deficits because Edison says its customers remain fully supplied.
Canceled
35
Replaced
23
Modeled Gap
12
Winter Procurement Scenario
12 Cargoes
This is the simple cargo-count difference at the latest public
snapshot. Additional replacement procurement may already be underway.
Gas Volume1.57 bcm
Energy16.6 TWh
Procurement Pace4/mo
Premium€20/MWh
Scenario model only:
the latest public data do not show Edison's actual spot purchase prices,
the volume of every individual replacement cargo, hedging positions or any
remaining purchases already contracted but not publicly reported. The cargo
gap therefore measures public cargo-count exposure, not an actual shortage
to Edison's customers.
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