U.S. and Iranian representatives are exploring a phased arrangement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease the U.S. economic blockade of Iran, according to diplomatic and regional sources involved in contacts around the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Reuters reported on September 24 that one possible first stage would pair restored navigation through Hormuz with U.S. blockade relief and potentially renewed Iranian access to frozen assets. Iran has separately proposed a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days and a gradual reopening of the strait. No agreement has been reached, however, and Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary said September 25 that Washington must meet Tehran's conditions before Hormuz is reopened or formal negotiations resume.
Hormuz Negotiations · September 25, 2026
A Possible Deal Is Taking Shape Around the Strait
60 Days
maximum regional ceasefire period in Iran's reported road map
Diplomatic contacts in New York are examining whether maritime access, U.S. economic pressure and a temporary regional ceasefire can be sequenced together rather than resolved in one comprehensive settlement.
Where the Negotiations Stand
Several elements are being discussed, but none should yet be treated as agreed or implemented.
1
Phased framework under discussion
Reuters sources say representatives are exploring a staged arrangement linking Hormuz navigation with U.S. blockade relief.
2
Mediators remain central
Qatar, Pakistan and Egypt have carried messages between the two sides during the New York contacts.
!
No reopening agreement
Tehran says Washington must act first and that Hormuz remains closed until its conditions are met.
Maritime Component
Reopen Hormuz
Iran has discussed restoring navigation in stages rather than immediately returning to unrestricted pre-war traffic.
U.S. Component
Ease Blockade
Tehran is seeking removal of the U.S. economic and maritime blockade as a central part of any arrangement.
Financial Component
Frozen Assets
Reuters sources say Iranian access to frozen overseas assets could also form part of a phased settlement.
Regional Component
Temporary Ceasefire
Iran's reported road map proposes a ceasefire of up to 60 days while negotiations continue.
The reported framework is not a signed agreement.
Reuters' September 24 reporting is based on Iranian, regional and Western diplomatic sources. The White House and State Department had not publicly confirmed the reported terms when Reuters published the account, and Iran's security leadership subsequently reiterated that Washington must meet Tehran's conditions first.
Reported Negotiating Sequence
Reopening Hormuz Requires More Than Announcing a Deal
Even if political terms are accepted, commercial shipping would still need security conditions, insurance capacity and owner confidence to normalize.
1
Political Stand-Down
The reported Iranian road map calls for a temporary regional ceasefire while negotiations continue.
2
Blockade Relief
Tehran wants Washington to ease or terminate its blockade. The disagreement over which side acts first remains unresolved.
3
Strait Reopens
Iranian officials have said navigation could be restored quickly once the required political conditions are met.
4
Commercial Normalization
Shipowners, charterers and insurers would still have to decide that physical and financial risks have fallen enough to resume normal service.
AIS-Tracked Commodity Ships · Sept. 23
10
Kpler's preliminary data recorded nine inbound commodity vessels and one outbound ship. The 10-day moving average was approximately 17.
U.S. Official Estimate · Same Day
~60
A U.S. official told Reuters that about 60 commercial vessels crossed, including ships operating with military coordination. Reuters could not independently verify the figure.
Pre-War Large Commercial Traffic
~125 / Day
Approximate daily level before the conflict began on February 28.
Why the traffic counts differ
Commercial AIS datasets can miss vessels that shut off transponders during dangerous passages. The U.S. figure also covers a broader group of commercial vessels than Kpler's commodity-vessel series. The numbers therefore should not be treated as directly equivalent.
One unusually large oil-flow day
The U.S. official said approximately 22 million barrels of oil exited Hormuz on September 23, the highest daily amount since early July, with about 40 of the 60 vessels coordinating with U.S. forces. Reuters said it could not independently confirm those figures.
Brent · Sept. 25
~$105.70
Prices eased after approaching $108 as reports of the phased diplomatic framework reduced part of the immediate supply-risk premium.
Pre-War Energy Exposure
~20%
Hormuz carried roughly one-fifth of global daily crude-oil and LNG supply before the conflict.
UN Reopening Statement
~80 Countries
A joint statement at the UN called for urgent restoration of navigation through the strait.
Ship Universe Hormuz Reopening Monitor
Test the Conditions for a Commercial Reopening
Mark conditions as they become confirmed. Political agreement is only the first layer. Normal shipping also requires physical security, insurance and owner participation.
Current Default Status
Negotiations Only
No phased reopening agreement has been confirmed. Commercial traffic remains heavily restricted and exposed to attack risk.
Operational Reopening Conditions
This tracks whether the conditions needed for normal merchant traffic have actually occurred, rather than whether political discussions are taking place.
0 of 6 conditions confirmed
✓
Ceasefire Implemented
A formal cessation of the relevant hostilities is in force rather than merely proposed.
✓
U.S. Blockade Relief
Washington has implemented the agreed economic or maritime relief rather than only discussing it.
✓
Iran Authorizes Normal Navigation
Commercial passage is permitted without vessel-by-vessel political authorization or unresolved transit restrictions.
✓
Attacks Stop
Commercial ships complete repeated transits without new projectile, drone or seizure incidents.
✓
War-Risk Insurance Falls
Underwriters materially reduce additional premiums and restore broader capacity for Gulf voyages.
✓
Merchant Traffic Returns
Independent traffic data shows a sustained recovery rather than one escorted convoy or isolated high-volume day.
Latest Tracked Commodity Traffic
10 / Day
Kpler preliminary count for September 23.
Recent Tracked Average
~17 / Day
Ten-day moving commodity-vessel average.
Pre-War Commercial Baseline
~125 / Day
Broader large-commercial-vessel traffic.
Reported Reopening Window
≤7 Days
Iranian official's stated capability if political conditions are met.
Current-state warning:
The checklist is deliberately conservative. A signed political document should not automatically be treated as a normal maritime reopening. Shipping conditions would need to be confirmed independently through vessel movements, security reports, carrier decisions and insurance pricing.
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