Drewry WCI Slips to $4,468 as Suez Return Begins to Outweigh Carrier Capacity Cuts
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Drewry’s World Container Index fell 1% to $4,468 per 40-foot container in its September 24 assessment, reversing the previous week’s increase as falling Asia-Europe rates outweighed a still-firm Transpacific market. Shanghai-to-Los Angeles rose 2% to $7,838, while Shanghai-to-New York was essentially unchanged at $10,373. Europe moved sharply in the opposite direction: Shanghai-to-Genoa fell 5% to $3,835 and Shanghai-to-Rotterdam declined 4% to $3,485. The more significant change is in the capacity picture. Carriers have announced 15 Transpacific blank sailings for next week, up from nine this week, and seven on Asia-Europe, up from three. Drewry nevertheless expects both markets to weaken next week as China enters its Golden Week holiday and returning Suez Canal services add effective capacity. Suez containership transits increased from 41 in Week 37 to 48 in Week 38, a rise of roughly 17%.
More Blank Sailings, Yet Rates Are Expected to Fall
Carriers are removing more scheduled capacity ahead of Golden Week, but Drewry now expects both Transpacific and Asia-Europe spot rates to soften as Chinese export demand pauses and more containerships return to the Suez Canal.
The Composite Is Flat. The Trade Lanes Are Not.
Over two weeks the global headline benchmark has moved by less than $10, while the price of moving a container from Shanghai to Rotterdam has dropped more than $500 and Shanghai-New York has risen nearly $650.
| Market Signal | September 10 | September 24 | Two-Week Move | Current Driver | Drewry Forward Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WCI Composite | $4,476 | GLOBAL INDEX $4,468 | -$8 · approximately flat | Rising U.S. headhaul rates have broadly offset falling Asia-Europe prices. | Drewry expects overall east-west spot pricing to soften next week around Golden Week. |
| Shanghai → Los Angeles | $7,352 | UP $7,838 | +$486 · +6.6% | Tight Transpacific capacity and carrier blank-sailing programs supported rates into the pre-holiday period. | Drewry now expects a decline next week despite 15 announced blank sailings. |
| Shanghai → New York | $9,726 | HIGHEST $10,373 | +$647 · +6.7% | U.S. East Coast pricing remains exceptionally high compared with European destinations. | The September 24 weekly reading was effectively flat, suggesting the preceding rise has stalled for now. |
| Shanghai → Genoa | $4,216 | DOWN $3,835 | -$381 · -9.0% | Asia-Europe demand is weaker while more vessels are again using the shorter Suez routing. | Drewry expects another decline despite an increase in blank sailings. |
| Shanghai → Rotterdam | $3,997 | DOWN $3,485 | -$512 · -12.8% | Returning Suez transits are increasing effective capacity into North Europe. | Drewry says recovering capacity should outweigh the effect of seven Asia-Europe blank sailings next week. |
| Transpacific Blank Sailings | 8 | NEXT WEEK 15 | +7 sailings | Carriers are substantially increasing schedule withdrawals around Golden Week. | Drewry still forecasts lower rates, indicating expected demand reduction exceeds the support from withdrawn sailings. |
| Suez Containership Transits | Not comparable | WEEK 38 48 | +17% vs Week 37 | Week 37 recorded 41 containership passages through the canal. | More Suez routings shorten voyages and effectively release additional ship capacity into the network. |
| Drewry Intra-Asia Index | Separate index | RECORD HIGH $1,491 | +6% this week | Geopolitical and typhoon-related disruption continues to constrain capacity within Asia. | Fifth consecutive all-time high, showing that falling east-west WCI rates do not mean container markets are weakening everywhere. |
Two-Week Freight Cost Divergence Analyzer
Apply the September 10 and September 24 Drewry rates to an actual shipment program and see how dramatically the economics have changed by destination even though the global WCI is almost unchanged.
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