Secondhand Ship Market Outlook: Tankers Lead Asset Surge as 2027 Supply Risks Build
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Secondhand ship values are entering the final quarter of 2026 at elevated levels across most major shipping sectors, but the market is increasingly split by vessel type. Clarksons Research says average secondhand asset pricing has risen about 17% over the past two years, with crude tanker values up roughly 30%, while its Q3 shipping-market barometer reached an all-time quarterly high of $46,384 per day. Korea Ocean Business Corporation's October 1 assessments show five-year-old VLCCs valued at $178.09 million, 38% above its $129.46 million newbuilding benchmark, with similar inversions in Suezmax, Aframax and LR2 tankers. Dry bulk values are also firm but much closer to replacement cost, containership prices continue to be supported by a shortage of prompt charter-free tonnage, and the outlook for gas carriers is diverging between exceptionally strong VLGC markets and an LNG-carrier sector absorbing heavy newbuilding deliveries.
The Secondhand Market Is Strong Almost Everywhere, But the Risk Is No Longer Equal
Prompt ships are carrying a premium because they can earn immediately while shipyard delivery slots extend years into the future. The key question heading into 2027 is how much of today's asset value is supported by lasting fleet fundamentals and how much is capitalizing unusually high current freight markets.
KOBC's five-year benchmark sits $48.63 million above its equivalent newbuilding assessment.
Five-year-old vessels are valued roughly 25% above the current newbuilding benchmark.
Five-year values remain strong but sit slightly below the equivalent newbuilding benchmark.
The recent EF Emma sale illustrates the price support created by scarce prompt containership availability.
VLGC earnings are exceptionally strong while heavy LNG-carrier deliveries are pressuring freight.
The Most Important Asset-Price Signal in Q4 2026
$178.09M five-year versus $129.46M newbuild.
$109.57M five-year versus $87.58M newbuild.
$86.90M five-year versus $75.96M newbuild.
$86.26M five-year versus $77.58M newbuild.
$36.79M five-year versus $35.78M newbuild.
What Is Holding Values Up
- Exceptional tanker and LPG freight earnings
- Scarcity of modern prompt tonnage
- Shipyard backlogs extending toward 2030
- Very limited vessel recycling
- Longer voyages and geopolitical disruption
- Strong owner balance sheets reducing forced sales
What Could Break the Premium
- Normalization of Middle East and Red Sea routes
- Heavy 2027-2029 newbuilding deliveries
- Falling freight or charter rates
- Accelerating recycling of older vessels
- Container services returning through Suez
- Large tanker and container orderbooks reaching the water
Secondhand Ship Market Board: October 2026
Tanker and bulker benchmark values are KOBC assessments dated October 1. Container and gas-carrier rows use recent reported transactions and market conditions where equivalent public benchmark series are not available.
| Segment | Reference Vessel | Resale / Recent Sale | 5-Year Benchmark | 10-Year Benchmark | Newbuilding Benchmark | 5Y vs Newbuild | 2027 Market Setup | Asset-Value Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC | 320,000 dwt | $199.26M resale | $178.09M | $152.23M | $129.46M | +37.6% | Near-term freight support remains exceptional, while most of the enormous new orderbook arrives later. | High Premium is heavily exposed to normalization of freight and effective vessel supply. |
| Suezmax | 160,000 dwt | $133.20M resale | $109.57M | $96.61M | $87.58M | +25.1% | Strong earnings and limited prompt modern ships remain supportive into the near term. | High Current value incorporates a large immediate-earnings premium. |
| Aframax | 110,000 dwt | $92.03M resale | $86.90M | $73.96M | $75.96M | +14.4% | Regional crude dislocation remains supportive but value inversion is less extreme than larger crude tankers. | Elevated |
| LR2 | 110,000 dwt | $94.41M resale | $86.26M | $75.02M | $77.58M | +11.2% | Product-market strength and longer voyages support values, though the premium is narrower. | Elevated |
| MR | 50,000 dwt | $58.23M resale | $49.93M | $40.19M | $50.54M | -1.2% | Healthy product-tanker earnings support the segment without the same extreme price inversion seen in crude. | Moderate |
| Capesize | 180,000 dwt | $82.56M resale | $72.42M | $55.67M | $73.67M | -1.7% | Strong tonne-mile demand supports earnings into 2027, but larger-segment deliveries are rising. | Moderate |
| Kamsarmax | 82,000 dwt | $44.19M resale | $38.82M | $29.82M | $38.22M | +1.6% | Balanced current market, but heavier scheduled fleet additions make 2027 supply growth more important. | Moderate |
| Ultramax | 64,000 dwt | $41.88M resale | $36.79M | $28.92M | $35.78M | +2.8% | Diversified cargo exposure and strong utilization offer support, with a manageable premium over replacement cost. | Moderate |
| Handysize | 33,000 dwt | $34.89M resale | $28.31M | $21.43M | $31.25M | -9.4% | Strong employment and broad cargo flexibility support older ships, though Handysize fleet growth has recently been faster. | Moderate |
| Containership | 1,710 TEU feeder | $24M EF Emma | Public benchmark not used | Public benchmark not used | Varies by specification | Prompt Premium | Charter-free tonnage remains scarce today, but a 14M+ TEU orderbook creates a substantial 2027 capacity test. | Rising |
| VLGC | 84,100 cbm | $91M Clermont, 2015 | Public benchmark not used | Public benchmark not used | Varies by yard/specification | Strong Market | Spot earnings reached fresh highs, but Clarksons expects some easing during 2027-28 as deliveries rise. | Elevated |
| LNG Carrier | 174,000 cbm modern vessel | Approx. $220M 5Y benchmark in August | Approx. $220M | Approx. $126M for 160K/10Y | Varies significantly | Supply Heavy | Export growth improves the medium-term picture, but record vessel deliveries are currently weighing on freight. | High |
The extraordinary freight environment and limited immediate vessel availability should continue supporting asset values while major newbuilding supply remains weighted toward later delivery years.
Strong freight and tonne-mile growth are supporting values, but five-year-old prices remain much closer to newbuilding cost than in crude tankers. That leaves less speculative premium embedded in today's benchmarks.
Asset scarcity is supporting today's secondhand values, but BIMCO expects containership fleet capacity to grow about 9% in 2027 as a 14-million-TEU-plus orderbook moves toward delivery.
Secondhand Ship Purchase Stress Test
Test whether current earnings could offset an asset-value correction. Select a current KOBC benchmark, enter an expected daily TCE and apply your own 2027 valuation scenario.
Asset Value Under Your Scenario
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