Hormuz Shipping Falls Back to 7 Transits as VLCC and LNG Traffic Disappears Again
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply again, with only seven commodity vessels recorded crossing on Thursday, August 20, according to the latest Kpler tracking data. Four vessels entered the Gulf and three exited, down from a revised 14 crossings the previous day. None of Thursday's detected movements involved a VLCC or LNG carrier, although one very large gas carrier carrying propane and butane exited through the Iranian route. The latest reading follows several days of extremely thin traffic and comes as the political and security situation around the strait remains unresolved. The disruption continues to affect a waterway that carried roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows before the current conflict, while vessels operating with AIS transponders switched off may not appear in the tracking totals.
Operator Impact Snapshot
Only seven commodity vessels detected
Thursday's traffic consisted of four vessels entering the Gulf and three exiting, half the previous day's revised total.
No supertankers in the latest tally
No VLCC was recorded crossing Thursday, removing the vessel class normally capable of carrying around 2 million barrels in one voyage.
LNG carrier traffic is absent again
No LNG tanker appeared in Thursday's detected crossings, maintaining severe pressure on Gulf LNG export logistics.
Confirmed ship incidents continue rising
IMO's latest Middle East tally reached 66 confirmed incidents and 18 seafarer fatalities as of August 19.
Tracked traffic is not necessarily total traffic
Ships transiting with AIS switched off do not appear in the published Kpler counts, limiting visibility into actual movements.
Traffic Loss Versus the Cargo Normally Moving Through Hormuz
The vessel count is small, but the cargo normally dependent on the strait is measured in millions of barrels and billions of cubic feet.
| Market Signal | Reference Level | Latest Development | Available Alternative | Condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tracked Vessel Traffic | Kpler recorded around 45 crossings/day during the June 7 to July 7 truce period. | Latest Thursday reading: 7 commodity vessels. | No alternative maritime passage connects the Persian Gulf directly with the Arabian Sea. | SEVERE |
| Oil & Petroleum | 20.9M bpd crossed Hormuz in 1H25. | Large tanker movements remain highly selective and no VLCC appeared in Thursday's detected traffic. | Saudi and UAE pipelines can bypass roughly 4.7M bpd. | SEVERE |
| LNG | About 11.4 Bcf/day crossed in 1H25, more than 20% of global LNG trade. | No LNG carrier was recorded in Thursday's crossing tally. | Gulf LNG has substantially fewer physical bypass options than crude oil. | SEVERE |
| Asian Crude Supply | About 89% of Hormuz crude and condensate went to Asia in 1H25. | China, India, Japan and South Korea remain the largest destination markets exposed to disrupted flows. | Buyers are sourcing replacement barrels from outside the Gulf and using offshore transfer arrangements. | TIGHT |
| VLCC Freight | A typical prewar Iraqi crude voyage was reported around $2M. | A recent 2-million-barrel Iraq-to-India VLCC fixture reached $23M–$25M. | Shipowners can remain outside the Gulf, but that sharply reduces available tanker supply inside Hormuz. | EXTREME |
| Chinese State Tankers | COSCO Shipping Energy and CMES previously carried about half of China's Middle Eastern oil imports. | Both have avoided Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb since late July. | Ship-to-ship transfers outside the Gulf and alternative loading locations are increasingly being used. | REROUTED |
| Iranian Oil Exports | 2025 average: ~1.4M bpd. | August shipments have fallen to roughly 534,000 bpd. | Chinese refiners are increasing purchases of alternative grades including Iraqi and Brazilian crude. | DOWN |
Hormuz Transit Exposure & Freight Premium Calculator
Compare normal voyage economics with a high-risk Hormuz fixture, then add war-risk insurance, delay and security costs to calculate the total disruption premium.
Hormuz Cost Stack
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