ONE Keeps Container Earnings in the Black as Transpacific Demand Absorbs a Cost Surge
Ocean Network Express stayed profitable through the first quarter of FY2026 even as the operating environment became materially more expensive. ONE reported $4.539 billion in revenue, $707 million of EBITDA, $76 million of EBIT and $31 million of net profit for the April-to-June quarter. Liftings increased to 3.257 million TEU, while ONE’s average freight rate improved to $1,300 per TEU, up from $1,199 in the comparable quarter. The carrier said demand strengthened substantially in May and June, led by Transpacific cargo front-loading ahead of possible tariff changes, inventory restocking and expectations of higher fuel surcharges. At the same time, ONE’s average bunker price jumped to $666 per metric ton, $131 higher than a year earlier and $226 above the preceding quarter, as Middle East disruption pushed fuel and operating costs higher. Freight-rate recovery and high utilization were strong enough to offset much of that pressure, although net profit still fell from $86 million a year earlier. ONE has now lifted its full-year profit forecast to $900 million from $300 million, with management expecting stronger freight-rate support through the second quarter.
Operator Impact Snapshot
Demand Recovered Faster Than the Cost Base Deteriorated
ONE entered April with a mixed cargo environment, but the picture changed quickly through May and June. China-origin volumes increased as customers accelerated shipments ahead of potential tariff changes, anticipated fuel-surcharge increases and inventory restocking. The Transpacific was the clearest beneficiary, while Asia-Europe demand also continued to recover.
The resulting utilization helped tighten the supply-demand balance. ONE said services across its major trades were running at high utilization and that freight rates moved higher as the quarter progressed. The carrier's average freight rate climbed to $1,300 per TEU, compared with $1,154 in the immediately preceding quarter and $1,199 a year earlier.
A Much More Expensive Bunker Quarter
The offsetting pressure came from fuel. ONE's average bunker price reached $666 per metric ton, compared with $440 in the preceding quarter. Middle East instability was the main driver, with Strait of Hormuz disruption also preventing the carrier from resuming normal direct Middle East services during the quarter.
Current earnings signal: Container demand and freight rates are presently doing enough work to keep ONE profitable, but the spread between improving revenue and rising voyage cost remains the key tension in the earnings story.
ONE Q1 FY2026 Earnings and Trade Readout
| Metric | Q1 FY2026 | Q1 FY2025 | Year-on-Year Read | Commercial Signal | Next Indicator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.539 billion | $4.049 billion | +$490M Roughly +12% |
Higher liftings and stronger freight-rate realization outweighed cost pressure at the revenue level. | Whether elevated rates persist through Q2 as front-loading normalizes. |
| EBITDA | $707 million | $616 million | +$91M Roughly +15% |
Operating cash earnings improved despite fuel and ship-cost inflation. | Margin durability if bunker prices remain elevated. |
| EBIT | $76 million | $38 million | +$38M About double |
Improved freight economics generated measurable operating leverage. | Whether the rate recovery remains ahead of depreciation and operating-cost pressure. |
| Net Profit | $31 million | $86 million | -$55M Roughly -64% |
The company stayed profitable, but higher cost pressure still compressed the final earnings result. | Q2 profitability as stronger rates flow through for a fuller quarter. |
| Liftings | 3.257 million TEU | 3.165 million TEU | +92,000 TEU | Volume growth came mainly from Transpacific, Asia-Europe and Latin America trades. | Whether front-loaded Transpacific demand leaves a softer late-summer cargo profile. |
| Average Freight Rate | $1,300 / TEU | $1,199 / TEU | +$101 / TEU | Rate recovery became increasingly important as operating costs rose. | Spot-rate direction through the remainder of Q2. |
| Bunker Price | $666 / MT | $535 / MT | +$131 / MT cost | Middle East instability materially increased the carrier's fuel burden. | Hormuz conditions and the duration of emergency fuel surcharges. |
| Global Fleet Supply | 34M+ TEU | Growing | Supply pressure remains | More than 300,000 TEU of global fleet capacity was added during the quarter. | Whether congestion and geopolitical diversions continue absorbing new tonnage. |
| Full-Year Profit Forecast | $900 million | Previous guidance $300 million | 3× previous forecast | ONE now expects stronger freight economics to outweigh more of the fuel-cost drag than previously assumed. | Whether operating conditions around Hormuz stabilize on the timetable assumed by management. |
ONE Freight and Fuel Earnings Pressure Simulator
Stress-test the current quarter using freight-rate, cargo-volume and bunker-cost changes. The tool uses ONE's reported Q1 figures as the starting point and produces directional commercial proxies rather than a company earnings forecast.
Adjusted average rate per TEU.
Adjusted quarterly lifting volume.
Average freight rate multiplied by scenario liftings. This is not total ONE revenue.
Estimated change using your bunker-consumption assumption.
Change versus the Q1 freight-revenue proxy of about $4.23 billion.
Rate and volume assumptions currently outweigh the modeled bunker movement.
Scenario Pressure Bars
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