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Commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has rebounded sharply after several days of disruption, with 39 commodity vessels recorded passing through the chokepoint on July 28, the highest daily total since July 19 and up from 28 vessels one day earlier. The renewed movement included crude and product tankers in both directions, with Aframax tankers Aisopos and Gustav each carrying more than 750,000 barrels of crude out toward the Gulf of Aden and Karachi carrying roughly 430,000 barrels toward Pakistan. The recovery remains incomplete, with the latest count still below the July monthly high of 46 vessels. Conditions at the Strait of Hormuz remain substantially weaker. Only eight commodity vessels crossed Hormuz on July 28, five entering and three exiting, while preliminary July 29 tracking had recorded just one passage at the time of reporting.
Operator Impact Snapshot
Vessel movement is diverging sharply across the region’s two strategic shipping corridors, with Bab el-Mandeb recovering toward its recent peak while Hormuz remains at a fraction of comparable daily activity.
Highest daily transit count since July 19 and a strong rebound from the previous day.
Traffic increased by 11 vessels in one day after several sessions of suppressed movement.
Five vessels entered and three exited, leaving the Gulf chokepoint at exceptionally low activity.
The latest 39-vessel day has recovered to roughly 85% of the month’s highest recorded level.
Bab el-Mandeb handled nearly five times as many tracked commodity vessels as Hormuz on July 28.
Chokepoint Traffic Dashboard
Current tracking shows a meaningful rebound at Bab el-Mandeb without a comparable recovery at Hormuz, even as security and political risks remain elevated around both waterways.
| Indicator | Latest Reading | Recent Comparison | Current Situation | Operator Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Daily Traffic | 39 ships July 28 | Up from 28 vessels on July 27 and the highest daily count since July 19. |
REBOUNDING Commodity-vessel movement increased substantially despite continued Houthi threats to Saudi-linked shipping. |
Tanker owners, container operators, Red Sea ports, Suez users, insurers and energy traders. |
| Bab el-Mandeb Monthly Peak | 46 ships July 14 | July 28 traffic reached approximately 85% of the month’s peak. |
PARTIAL RECOVERY The latest rebound is substantial but does not yet represent a full return to the strongest July traffic level. |
Operators evaluating whether Red Sea capacity and schedules can normalize. |
| Strait of Hormuz Traffic | 8 ships July 28 | Earlier tracking showed only three daily transits on July 22, 23 and 24. |
SEVERELY REDUCED Hormuz has improved from the three-per-day stretch but remains weak compared with normal regional activity. |
VLCC operators, LNG carriers, Gulf exporters, Asian refiners, charterers and commodity desks. |
| July 29 Preliminary Traffic | 5 vs 1 Bab / Hormuz | Preliminary counts published early in the trading day and subject to revision. |
DIVERGENCE Early tracking continued to show more movement through Bab el-Mandeb than through Hormuz. |
Real-time routing decisions should account for rapidly changing and incomplete AIS-based data. |
| Crude Tanker Movements | 3 Aframax among July 28 exits | Aisopos and Gustav each carried more than 750,000 barrels, while Karachi carried roughly 430,000 barrels. |
OIL FLOWING The traffic rebound includes meaningful crude movements rather than only dry or empty vessel passages. |
Crude traders, refiners, tanker owners and oil-terminal operators. |
| Saudi-Linked Shipping Risk | HIGH active Houthi threat | Houthi forces said they fired ballistic missiles at a Saudi oil tanker on July 28. |
SECURITY RISK Rising traffic has not been accompanied by a clear reduction in the physical threat to selected vessels. |
Saudi-linked cargoes, vessel managers, war-risk insurers and chartering desks. |
| China Safe-Passage Talks | Direct talks reported July 28 | Chinese parties have discussed individual tanker passage with the Houthi movement. |
WATCH Vessel access could increasingly vary by ownership, destination, cargo relationship or political exposure. |
Charterers, compliance teams, Chinese-linked tankers and counterparties using Saudi Red Sea terminals. |
| Potential Red Sea Transit Fees | Under review not yet established | Reports indicate the Houthis are considering a formal fee mechanism for commercial passage. |
WATCH Any implemented fee system could add a new compliance and insurance layer alongside existing security risk. |
Owners, insurers, sanctions teams, P&I clubs and charterers. |
| Bab el-Mandeb Oil Flow | 5.4M b/d Q1 2026 baseline | Up from 3.7 million b/d during Q1 2025. |
ENERGY CORRIDOR The strait had already regained a substantial volume of petroleum traffic before the latest security escalation. |
Oil exporters, Mediterranean refiners, Suez-linked tanker trades and global fuel markets. |
| Hormuz Oil Flow | 14.6M b/d Q1 2026 baseline | Down from roughly 20.4 million b/d during Q1 2025. |
SYSTEMIC EXPOSURE Even before the latest July traffic collapse, tracked petroleum flow through Hormuz had fallen materially. |
Gulf producers, Asian importers, tanker markets, LNG buyers and global crude pricing. |
Chokepoint Traffic Divergence Analyzer
Compare current vessel movement through Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz, measure the Red Sea recovery against a selected reference level, and estimate the time required to clear an illustrative vessel queue at current traffic rates.
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