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$1.30 A MILE. 26 CENTS A MILE. SAME INDUSTRY.
Ten directional container trades expose the difference between an expensive box, a valuable ship-day and a genuinely profitable round trip.
A 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles is fetching about $7,500 for 5,775 nautical miles. The comparable container bound for Rotterdam earns far less per mile, particularly when the ship goes around Africa. Carriers are moving bigger ships into the Pacific. The harder question is how many loaded boxes they can carry before the additional capacity pulls the rate down.
The fivefold gap is real. The profit claim is not.
Alphaliner / early NovemberShanghai → Los Angeles
Per loaded FEU per nautical mile. About 5,775 nautical miles; Alphaliner's roughly $7,500 spot-rate reference.
Shanghai → Rotterdam, via Cape
Per loaded FEU per nautical mile. The longer route dilutes spot revenue intensity, before higher bunker and vessel-day costs are counted.
Ten trade directions under the revenue microscope
Ranked by indicative USD / FEU / nmEight current Drewry WCI directional benchmarks, plus two Alphaliner Latin America examples, make the comparison auditable. Lower-revenue reverse legs are deliberately included: without them a shipowner cannot assess a round trip. The ranking is these ten observed or inferred lanes, not a claim to have surveyed every world container service. Prices are 29 October WCI or early-November Alphaliner observations; no 5 November WCI print is assumed.
| Rank / direction | Spot / FEU | Distance, nm | $/FEU-nm | Benchmark | Capacity / primary downside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Shanghai → Los Angeles | $7,514 | 5,775 | $1.30 | Drewry WCI | Asia–USWC ~400K TEU/week planned; excess capacity, softer US imports |
| 2 · Rotterdam → New York | $3,106 | 3,408 | $0.91 | Drewry WCI | Transatlantic contract repricing, load factors and ECA fuel costs |
| 3 · Shanghai → Manzanillo, Mexico | ~$6,293* | 6,915 | $0.91 | Alphaliner inferred | Volatile $0.70–$1.10/mile observed range; capacity and Mexico cargo mix |
| 4 · Shanghai → New York | $9,631 | ~10,621 | $0.91 | Drewry WCI | Panama slot/toll exposure and arrival congestion; Alphaliner ~96¢ on another rate basis |
| 5 · Shanghai → Genoa, Suez | $4,151 | ~8,763 | $0.47 | Drewry WCI | Red Sea risk; additional Mediterranean capacity and Suez tolls |
| 6 · Shanghai → Santos | ~$4,671* | 11,121 | $0.42 | Alphaliner inferred | Alphaliner says spot returns halved since late August; long Cape route |
| 7 · Shanghai → Rotterdam, Suez | $3,686 | 10,607 | $0.35 | Drewry WCI | ~350K TEU/week Asia–North Europe; Suez normalization adds effective supply |
| 8 · New York → Rotterdam | $1,135 | 3,408 | $0.33 | Drewry WCI | Atlantic backhaul cargo, container equipment mix and weaker pricing |
| 9 · Los Angeles → Shanghai | $837 | 5,775 | $0.14 | Drewry WCI | Pacific backhaul: low paid freight plus empty-equipment repositioning |
| 10 · Rotterdam → Shanghai, Suez | $646 | 10,607 | $0.06 | Drewry WCI | Very weak eastbound rate; ship still incurs return-voyage costs |
*The Manzanillo and Santos dollar amounts are calculated from Alphaliner's published $0.91 and $0.42 per nautical mile multiplied by independently estimated routing distances. They are not published freight quotations. Route distances are planning approximations. WCI rates use October 29 observations; index scope, surcharge coverage and actual carrier contract realization vary. Shanghai–Rotterdam via the Cape would be about 13,927 nm, reducing the same $3,686 FEU rate to approximately $0.26/nm, but it is not counted as an eleventh distinct trade.
How a $7,514 container becomes a much smaller margin
Return leg and capacity dilutionHeadhaul capture
Only occupied paid slots earn the quoted rate; contract/spot mix and discounts determine average realized revenue.
Return loading
LA–Shanghai is only $837/FEU in the latest WCI observation. The ship must return even if some boxes are empty.
Full round-trip costs
Fuel, ship capital/hire, crew, port time, canal charges and delays must be covered across both directions.
Supply response
More vessel slots chasing a strong lane can push spot revenue down before the carrier's fixed costs decline.
What could reverse today's ranking?
Four market transmission pathsAdditional megaships can consume the rate premium
MSC has upgraded Sentosa service ships from roughly 15,000 to 23,600 TEU. ZIM plans an additional China–California service in December. More slots may expand gross revenue opportunity for one operator while reducing the clearing rate for the whole trade.
$9,631 per FEU is not $9,631 of incremental profit
Shanghai–New York commands a larger outright rate than Los Angeles but sails much farther and faces Panama transit costs on a representative all-water routing. The East Coast premium can be absorbed by a longer cycle, more fuel and fewer annual rotations.
A shorter passage may weaken pricing
Moving Shanghai–Rotterdam from roughly 13,927 Cape nautical miles to 10,607 via Suez cuts sailing days and fuel, but it also releases ships from the network. Lower unit cost can coincide with lower freight revenue when additional capacity returns.
A strong per-mile snapshot can disappear quickly
Alphaliner puts Shanghai–Manzanillo near $0.91 per mile and Shanghai–Santos around $0.42. The Mexico measure has ranged from $0.70 to $1.10, while Santos pricing is roughly half its late-August reference. Single-week margin extrapolation is dangerous.
Rotterdam–New York earns nearly three times the backhaul rate
WCI reports $3,106 westbound against $1,135 eastbound. Both directions use the same ocean distance, yet the average paid cargo and empty-box repositioning load differ. A round-trip result cannot be constructed from the westbound number alone.
Revenue can fall before the vessel-day cost does
Carrier charter liabilities and owned-vessel financing persist while spot rates adjust. That exposes the difference between high margin in a fully loaded short cycle and poor economics on a longer, underutilized service.
TRADE MARGIN / LIVE ROUND-TRIP STRESS TEST
Select any of the ten directions. The tool combines the outbound benchmark with a separately priced return leg, paid slots, mixed contract/spot realization, at-sea fuel, vessel-day expense, canal costs and port time. It then calculates modeled voyage contribution and the headhaul rate needed to cover it. It is deliberately not a carrier profit forecast.
Freight-price × paid-loading sensitivity
Click any cell to apply its assumptionsEach cell is modeled round-trip contribution in USD millions. It moves the outbound spot benchmark by the selected percentage and applies the chosen outbound paid loading, keeping return loading and other costs constant.
Auditable voyage cash bridge
Illustrative, before corporate overhead and tax| Cash component | Basis | USD / round trip |
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