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276 ORDERS.
485 SHIPS WAITING.
ONE REVIVED YARD.
Hengli has captured 23.4% of newbuilding work across seven merchant sectors. The next test is delivery capacity, not contract signatures.
Four ships left Hengli's revived Dalian yard in 2024. Last year it delivered 17. In the first nine months of 2026 it delivered 62, while taking orders for another 276. The current schedule then calls for 99 deliveries in 2027 and 199 in 2028. Its orderbook has become enormous. Now the cranes, assembly lines, equipment suppliers and workforce have to catch up.
The 23.4% number, properly measured
Banchero Costa / Jan–Sep 2026 / CGTHengli, Dalian
New contracts across the broker's seven tracked merchant-vessel sectors. A single yard, not a group of separate facilities.
Hudong-Zhonghua
Second in the disclosed individual-yard share comparison. LNG carrier construction remains a core technical strength.
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries
Third on the same seven-sector basis. This is an individual yard, not the consolidated HD Hyundai shipbuilding group.
The delivery cliff
Completed ships versus scheduled hulls2026 annualized ship rate
62 deliveries in nine months, scaled to twelve. This is a rough ship-count run-rate, not certified steady-state annual yard capacity.
2028 schedule versus current ship run-rate
199 planned deliveries divided by ~83 annualized. By CGT, the broker reports an even steeper ~3.5× requirement because the scheduled vessel mix is larger or more complex.
The ten groups winning the order race
H1 2026 ranking / CGT order intakeThese are the published Clarksons-based group positions for the first six months of 2026. They are an independently ranked comparison, not an asserted October 30 individual-yard top ten. Capacity and investment evidence is dated separately where available.
| H1 rank | Shipbuilding group / country | Specialization / commercial edge | Delivery or backlog evidence | Expansion spending / capacity signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | CSSC / China | LNG, containers, tankers, large bulkers; multiple major yards | World's largest group orderbook by H1 CGT survey; individual Hudong unit held 57 LNG orders by Jan | Hudong-Zhonghua targets doubled capacity through 2030; group-wide comparable new capex not verified |
| 02 | Hengli Heavy Industry / China | VLCCs, containerships, bulkers and gas | 485 ships outstanding; 62 delivered Jan–Sep; 199 scheduled 2028 | RMB13.5B announced; ~4.6M dwt/year incremental project capacity planned |
| 03 | HD Hyundai / South Korea | LNG, high-spec tankers, large containers, dual-fuel | Multi-yard group; total vessel output not equivalent to individual HHI result | Proposed India greenfield yard ~2.5M GT annual design capacity, still at planning/JV stage; spend not fixed |
| 04 | China Merchants Shipbuilding / China | Tankers, Ro-Ro, offshore and increasingly specialty vessels | Multiple subsidiaries and yards; consolidated recent output not verified for a single plant | No directly comparable confirmed group expansion capex figure |
| 05 | Hantong Ship Heavy Industry / China | Geared bulkers, merchant series-building, repeat hull designs | Group named fifth for H1 intake; 136 ships / 19M dwt in older BRS group backlog snapshot | Current yard-specific expansion spend not established |
| 06 | Samsung Heavy Industries / South Korea | LNG carriers, FLNG/FPSO and complex marine plants | Higher work content per hull; ship counts alone understate complexity | Smart manufacturing and efficiency initiatives; distinct 2026 yard expansion amount not verified |
| 07 | Wuhu Shipyard / China | Ultramax/Handy bulkers and niche merchant designs | 66 new contracts in Feb 2025–Feb 2026 Veson snapshot, a different period | No directly comparable disclosed construction-capacity project budget |
| 08 | Hanwha Ocean / South Korea | LNG carriers, large commercial vessels, naval and repair | Geoje expertise; U.S. Philly yard expansion is a separate geography | Philly expansion target up to 20 ships annually, 2 docks and 3 piers; planned, not achieved |
| 09 | Jiangmen Nanyang / China | 40,500/64,500-dwt Handysize/Ultramax bulkers | 18 H1 2026 deliveries; 33 full-year plan; 148 ships cited in later orderbook update | Existing reported capacity ~1.6M dwt/year; no comparable new capex amount verified |
| 10 | Fincantieri / Italy | Cruise, defense, offshore and specialty vessels | 11 ships delivered H1; 92-ship June book, including defense/specialty | €169M H1 2026 capex groupwide; €107M shipbuilding segment, not all new berths |
What the rankings conceal
Ten strategic positions / contracting edgeThe industrial network
CSSC's size comes from a portfolio of yards rather than one dock. Hudong-Zhonghua's 57 LNG vessels in hand by January and plan to double capacity illustrate the high-complexity side of the group.
Delivery constraint: large containment-system procurement, outfitting staff and synchronized design packages, not only steel throughput.
The volume disruptor
The listed categories total 256 of 276 orders; other types account for the balance. A former failed STX Dalian plant has become a bulk-order magnet, backed by workshop, crane, drydock and engine-production investments.
Delivery constraint: repeatable block flow and outfitting throughput at more than twice the present annualized hull delivery rate.
The technology-and-network rival
Higher-value vessels and alternative-fuel engineering compete on capability rather than raw hull count. The proposed 2.5M-GT/year Thoothukudi development could widen its manufacturing footprint, but is not operational capacity.
Delivery constraint: skilled commissioning capacity, high-value machinery lead times and project approval for overseas expansion.
The diversified builder
The group competes across multiple shipbuilding facilities, including specialized construction. Demand is less dependent on one merchant hull type, but a group order figure cannot be treated as one-yard throughput.
Delivery constraint: engineering mix, concurrent berth loading and shared supplier schedules.
The series-production specialist
Scale in common merchant designs can generate learning-curve benefits. Owners should distinguish steelwork efficiency from actual availability of main engines, shafts and class-qualified subcontractors.
Delivery constraint: subcontractor capacity and maintaining quality across repeat series.
The complex-project competitor
High engineering content changes the economics of contract value and CGT per hull. Comparing its ship count with a bulk-carrier line misrepresents complexity and procurement exposure.
Delivery constraint: cryogenic systems, advanced integration and specialist commissioning.
The smaller-bulker challenger
Handy and Ultramax series can attract owners wanting standardized fleet renewal. Unlike a VLCC builder, its capacity cannot be measured simply by total dwt ordered.
Delivery constraint: rate of repeat-hull fabrication and equipment handoff.
The cross-border capacity builder
Hanwha's Korean manufacturing and planned U.S. revitalization are different capacity propositions. The Philadelphia target of up to 20 vessels/year depends on new docks, piers and block fabrication.
Delivery constraint: labor productivity, supplier localization and schedule integration across sites.
The high-throughput Handysize yard
Its specialization provides a real output benchmark: series of roughly 40,500-dwt and 64,500-dwt bulkers. The later reported 148-ship backlog stretches to 2030.
Delivery constraint: preserving annual throughput across a long queue of similar vessels.
The high-value exception
Passenger, defense and offshore projects sustain a different industrial model. Its €169M of H1 capital expenditure supports the group as a whole; it is not a quoted cost for ten additional commercial ship berths.
Delivery constraint: complex outfitting and multi-year passenger/defense production schedules.
Four bottlenecks before an order becomes a delivered ship
Execution mapFabrication halls, cranage, drydock occupation and block sequencing must support the larger annual launch rate.
Engines, shafts, propellers, fuel systems and dual-fuel equipment can become the long-lead items.
Quayside slots, electricians, pipefitters, automation engineers and commissioning teams limit physical throughput.
Trials, class certificates, documentation and warranty corrections can push contractual completion into a later year.
The disclosed spending gap
Capital program versus capacity createdHengli: expansion commitment
About RMB10B for a green/smart vessel plant and the balance for workshops and associated facilities. Announced incremental design capacity: ~4.6M dwt/year. This is planned capacity, not current delivered CGT.
Fincantieri: realized H1 CAPEX
Total group capital spending during the six months to June 2026, including €107M in shipbuilding. Represents actual spending, not a directly comparable greenfield project budget.
HD Hyundai: India proposal
Intended annual design capacity for a greenfield yard in Tamil Nadu. As of the October 28 development update, investment structure and detailed project study were not finalized.
CAN HENGLI CLEAR THE 2028 DELIVERY QUEUE?
Stress-test the published 99 ships scheduled in 2027 and 199 in 2028 against a user-defined production ramp. Hulls carried forward remain unfinished scheduled obligations. This is a ship-count exercise, not a CGT-specific yard capacity forecast.
Scheduled vs achievable deliveries
Capacity is rounded down to whole ships. Late 2027 hulls consume available 2028 slots first.
Delivery priority and delay
Capacity sensitivity
Click a ship-count / 2028 ramp combinationEach cell shows outstanding scheduled hulls after 2028, including any 2027 slippage, assuming current 2027 ramp and throughput realization.
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