Fresh Tanker Strikes Hit Hormuz as Commercial Traffic Remains Near Standstill
September 18, 2026
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Fresh attacks on tankers are adding to the severe disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, where only four commodity vessels were recorded transiting on September 17, compared with a 10-day average of about 16 and normal pre-war traffic of roughly 125 large commercial vessels per day. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it struck and stopped the Togo-flagged products tanker Trend after what it described as an unauthorized transit attempt, while UK Maritime Trade Operations separately reported a tanker hit by an unknown projectile that sparked an onboard fire before being extinguished; it remains unclear whether those reports describe the same vessel. UKMTO also confirmed a delayed report of another tanker struck while outbound on September 16. Despite the security deterioration, Saudi Arabia is increasing crude movements through the Gulf using tanker shuttles and ship-to-ship transfers off Oman, while VLCC freight rates have risen to unprecedented levels as owners limit their exposure to the strait.
Strait of Hormuz · September 18, 2026
Fresh Tanker Strikes Meet Near-Standstill Traffic
4 Ships
commodity-vessel transits on September 17
Commercial movement through the strait remains heavily suppressed while new tanker attacks reinforce the security, insurance and crew-risk barriers keeping many operators away.
Latest Security Reports
Attribution and vessel identification differ between reports, so confirmed events and Iranian claims should not be treated as identical until investigations establish the details.
Trend · Togo Flag
IRANIAN CLAIM
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it struck and stopped the 7,119-dwt products tanker after an alleged unauthorized transit attempt. Independent confirmation remained limited.
Unnamed Tanker · Sept. 18
UKMTO REPORT
UKMTO reported a tanker hit by an unknown projectile. A fire was extinguished and the crew was safe; environmental impact remained unconfirmed.
Outbound Tanker · Sept. 16
UKMTO VERIFIED
A time-late UKMTO report said another tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while outbound from Hormuz. Crew were safe.
Sept. 17 Commodity Transits
4
Three vessels entered the Gulf and one exited in preliminary Kpler tracking.
10-Day Average
~16 / Day
Even the recent crisis-period average remains far above Thursday's observed traffic.
Pre-War Commercial Traffic
~125 / Day
Approximate large-commercial-vessel transit level before the February conflict.
IMO Verified Attacks
80
Confirmed attacks on international shipping in and around Hormuz as of mid-September.
Confirmed Seafarer Deaths
22+
IMO-confirmed fatalities from the current conflict's attacks on shipping.
Oman-China VLCC
$871K / Day
Baltic Exchange assessment on September 17.
MEG-China VLCC
~$1.2M / Day
Record-level index as inside-Gulf tonnage remains exceptionally scarce.
Saudi Gulf Export Plan
~60M Bbl
Reported September-October crude volume routed toward STS transfers off Oman.
LNG Signal
3 Carriers
Three LNG ships reappeared outside Hormuz on September 17 after several days of limited visibility.
Attacks · Tanker Flows · Freight · Alternative Logistics
Hormuz Security & Shipping Board
The strait is still moving cargo, but the operating model increasingly depends on restricted passages, dark transits, shuttle tankers, military coordination and ship-to-ship transfers outside the Gulf.
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| Date | Vessel / Development | Status | Crew / Environmental Impact | What Happened | Operational Significance | Commercial Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep. 18 | Trend 7,119-dwt products tanker · Togo flag | IRANIAN CLAIM NOT FULLY VERIFIED | Crew and pollution details were not immediately confirmed in the Iranian statement. | Iran's Revolutionary Guard said the tanker was struck, caught fire and was stopped while attempting what it called an unauthorized transit. | Iran paired the claim with a warning that ships attempting unauthorized passage could be destroyed. | Raises the risk premium for owners considering independent passage rather than using approved or escorted movement windows. |
| Sep. 18 | Unnamed Tanker Strait of Hormuz | UKMTO INCIDENT |
CREW SAFE Fire extinguished; environmental impact unconfirmed. |
UKMTO said the tanker was struck by an unknown projectile, starting an onboard fire. | It was not immediately clear whether this was the same incident Iran identified as Trend. | Adds another live security event at the same time owners are being asked to move more Gulf crude. |
| Sep. 16 | Unnamed Outbound Tanker Hormuz outbound transit | UKMTO VERIFIED |
CREW SAFE Damage and pollution assessment not reported. |
A delayed verified report said an unknown projectile struck the tanker while it was leaving the Gulf. | Demonstrates that outbound vessels remain exposed even after reaching the narrow exit corridor. | Supports continued reluctance by independent operators to accept Gulf voyages without significant freight and security premiums. |
| Sep. 14 | St Helena Djibouti flag | PROJECTILE STRIKE | No casualties, vessel damage or environmental impact were initially reported. | UKMTO received a verified report that the vessel had been struck by an unknown projectile. | Added to a continuing pattern of intermittent attacks rather than a sustained period of safe navigation. | Prevents normal risk pricing from returning even on days when traffic temporarily rises. |
| Sep. 17 | Hormuz Commodity Traffic Kpler preliminary tracking | 4 TRANSITS | Two Panamax tankers, one Supramax and one Kamsarmax were identified. | Three vessels entered the Gulf and one exited. | Traffic remained far below both the 10-day crisis average and historical normal traffic. | Physical ship availability is increasingly a question of owner willingness, insurance and security access rather than fleet size alone. |
| Sep.-Oct. | Saudi Aramco Gulf Exports Ras Tanura → Sohar STS | ~60M BBL PLANNED | No casualty event; logistics workaround. | Trading sources say Saudi Arabia plans to move about 60 million barrels from Gulf terminals and transfer cargoes ship-to-ship near Sohar, Oman. | Shuttle movements through Hormuz allow long-haul VLCCs to remain outside the highest-risk section of the trade. | Keeps crude moving but consumes more vessel-days and supports extreme tanker freight rates. |
Shipping Market Response
Oman-China VLCC
$870,947 / Day
Baltic Exchange assessment, up roughly 250% month-to-date.
Recent Physical Fixture
$912,864 / Day
Reported VLCC put on subjects for Gulf of Oman loading.
MEG-China Index
$1.2M / Day
Inside-Gulf benchmark remains above the million-dollar threshold.
Fujairah-Asia
WS 800
Reuters-reported October supertanker freight indication as Saudi Gulf exports rise.
Ship Universe Hormuz Traffic Tool
Strait Transit Suppression & Cargo Exposure Analyzer
Compare current daily vessel movement with a chosen reference level and estimate the number of vessel movements and tanker cargoes displaced over time.
ships / day
ships / day
Default is the latest 10-day Kpler commodity-vessel average.
days
%
User assumption applied only to the modeled missing vessel movements.
barrels
Editable blended assumption. Actual cargoes vary widely by tanker class.
USD / day
Default reflects the September 17 Oman-China Baltic assessment.
Traffic Suppression
75%
current daily traffic below selected reference
Missing Vessel Movements
84
modeled difference across entered scenario period
Current Vessel Movements
28
entered current traffic multiplied by scenario days
Estimated Missing Tanker Trips
42
user-entered tanker share applied to missing movements
Modeled Deferred Cargo
31.5M
missing tanker trips multiplied by entered cargo assumption
VLCC Earnings Reference
$871K
current entered daily freight reference
Daily Transit Comparison
Compare entered current movement with the selected reference traffic level.
Traffic Ratio
25%
The tool measures traffic against the selected reference only. It does not assume that every missing ship represents a lost cargo; vessels may wait, transit dark, use alternative routes, shuttle cargo to STS points or sail later.
Scenario
7 days
Tanker Share
Cargo / Tanker
750K bbl
Reference
16/day
Data caution:
Kpler's latest four-vessel count covers tracked commodity vessels and is preliminary. Some ships switch off AIS while crossing the conflict zone, while military and maritime-security organizations may report broader traffic counts. The pre-war 125-vessel reference includes a wider universe of large commercial vessels and therefore should not be treated as directly identical to the commodity-only series.
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