The reintroduction of steep tariffs by the U.S. administration is reverberating through global supply chains, causing a tangible drop in shipping volumes, disrupted routes, and shifts in sourcing strategies. Maritime consultancy Drewry has issued a revised outlook reflecting this changing landscape.
U.S. Tariff Impact Snapshot – April 2025
Key Development
Details
Global Container Throughput
Forecast to decline 1% in 2025 per Drewry – only the third drop since 1979
Universal U.S. Tariffs
10% tariff imposed on most imports, including from allies
China-Specific Tariffs
145% tariff on Chinese imports, severely impacting competitiveness
China–U.S. Trade Volume
Drewry forecasts a potential 40% drop in U.S. imports from China
Chinese Retaliatory Tariffs
Target U.S. agriculture and tech exports, straining outbound flows
Sourcing Shifts
Accelerated moves to Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia
Blank Sailings
Widespread capacity cuts and rerouting from China-centric routes
Terminal Forecasts
Some West Coast ports expect double-digit TEU volume drops
Retail Procurement Strategy
Shift to shorter lead times and diversified sourcing models
Reshoring Viability
Contingent on rapid upgrades to U.S. manufacturing infrastructure
Note: Data compiled from Drewry’s April 24, 2025 forecast, NRF estimates, and global trade reporting. Verified as of April 25, 2025.
Surge in Blank Sailings Reflects Market Uncertainty
The latest round of blank sailings underscores the deepening volatility in global container shipping. As demand softens due to tariff disruptions and order cancellations, carriers are aggressively removing capacity to stabilize freight rates and manage vessel utilization.
Key insights and current data
Blank Sailings Snapshot – Late April to June 2025
Key Development
Details
Total Cancelled Sailings
75 blank sailings across East-West routes (10% of total scheduled)
Transpacific Eastbound Share
61% of cancellations – includes routes from China/Southeast Asia to U.S. coasts
Asia–Europe and Mediterranean
31% of total – driven by lowered European demand and sourcing shifts
Transatlantic Westbound Share
8% of cancellations – volume flows remain relatively stable
Load Factor Pressures
Some services falling below 75% utilization, prompting financial caution
Alliance Activity
Ocean Alliance and THE Alliance lead in early cancellations on Asia-linked routes
Advance Voyage Cancellations
Shippers now receiving 4–6 week notice vs. last-minute cuts pre-2020
Outlook Through Summer
Forecast: 20–25% reduction in transpacific capacity if tariffs persist
Port Call Impacts
Fewer weekly vessel calls at Los Angeles, Rotterdam, and Hamburg
Shipper Guidance
Forwarders urging flexible booking strategies due to dropped reliability
Rate Behavior
Spot rates remain relatively stable, but fragile heading into peak season
Note: Data sourced from Drewry Carrier Capacity Tracker and verified maritime trade sources as of April 25, 2025.
Freight Rates Experience Modest Declines
Despite a noticeable downturn in shipping volumes and vessel capacity cuts, freight rates have not collapsed as they did in previous downturns. Strategic blank sailings and cautious carrier behavior have helped preserve rate stability — at least for now.
Key takeaways:
ShipUniverse: Global Freight Rate Trends – April 2025
Rate Indicator
Details
World Container Index (WCI)
Down 2% to $2,157 per FEU as of April 24, 2025
Comparison to Peak
Down 79% from the September 2021 high of $10,377 per FEU
Shanghai to New York
Down 3% to $3,611 – still above pre-pandemic pricing levels
Shanghai to Los Angeles
Down 2% to $2,617 – impacted by reduced China–U.S. volume
Carrier Strategy
Rate discipline enforced through blank sailings and consolidation
Stability by Route
Transatlantic and intra-Asia rates remain relatively stable
Volatility on Secondary Lanes
Rates fluctuate due to demand surges and vessel redeployments (e.g., Vietnam–U.S.)
Shipper Behavior
Shift toward long-term contracts with pricing stability and space guarantees
Negotiation Environment
Tight pricing with limited room for discounts without volume commitments
Note: Rate data based on Drewry’s April 24, 2025 World Container Index and verified logistics market insights.
Retailers and Importers Adjust Strategies
Facing a turbulent tariff environment and unpredictable lead times, U.S. retailers and importers are shifting gears. From altering sourcing locations to adjusting inventory strategies, the goal is now agility over efficiency.
Key shifts and strategies:
U.S. Retailer Strategy Shifts – Mid 2025
Tactic or Impact
Details
Import Volume Outlook
NRF forecasts 20%+ drop in containerized imports in H2 2025
Inventory Frontloading
Retailers advancing shipments to beat tariffs, straining storage space
Order Cancellations
Lower-margin items seeing higher cancellation and deferment rates
Sourcing Diversification
Big-box retailers expanding supply bases to Vietnam, India, Indonesia
Nearshoring Trends
Mexico and Central America under review for regional production
Southeast Asia Volume
Vietnam and Cambodia seeing double-digit increases in bookings
Flexible Contracts
Volume-adjustable and multi-location fulfillment deals are increasing
Extended Lead Times
Retailers moving to 90–120 day supply buffers for risk mitigation
Free Trade Zone Use
E-commerce firms using bonded warehouses to delay tariff payments
Industry Impact
Retail and apparel sectors hardest hit by 145% tariffs on China goods
Note: Sourced from NRF projections, freight booking data, and verified trade logistics reports as of April 25, 2025.
The path forward for the shipping industry involves several key considerations:
Regulatory Developments Will Define Market Entry: The International Seabed Authority's (ISA) forthcoming Mining Code is expected to formalize environmental and operational standards. National policies may diverge, especially among countries not bound by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Geopolitical Tensions May Drive Resource Nationalism: Strategic minerals like cobalt and nickel are essential for defense and energy independence. Some nations may pursue unilateral claims or bilateral deals to bypass multilateral constraints.
Investment Trends Are Tied to ESG Pressures: Investors are closely monitoring ESG risks associated with ocean floor disruption. Sustainable finance metrics could influence which companies receive funding.
Technology Will Be a Game Changer: Advances in autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), precision dredging, and sediment control will improve extraction viability. Real-time ecological monitoring may become standard to satisfy environmental conditions.
Public Sentiment and Environmental Campaigns Could Slow Adoption: Growing public awareness may trigger pushback, especially in coastal communities and conservation circles. NGOs and research institutions are calling for precautionary pauses until long-term impacts are better understood.
Supply Chain Security Is a Strong Catalyst: Global disruptions have highlighted vulnerabilities in sourcing minerals from politically unstable regions. Deep-sea mining offers an alternative route to secure domestic and allied supply chains.
Interdisciplinary Collaboration Will Gain Importance: Partnerships between marine scientists, legal experts, engineers, and policymakers will be essential. Universities and research institutions may take on a larger role in pilot studies and impact assessments.
Market Dynamics Will Shift Based on Terrestrial Competition: If land-based mining operations become more sustainable or expand, deep-sea ventures may face pricing pressure. Alternatively, environmental constraints on land could push demand toward ocean-based supply.
Climate Policy May Accelerate Development: Transitioning to net-zero economies requires lithium, cobalt, and nickel—many of which are found offshore. Carbon credit schemes or tax incentives could be adapted to support responsible seabed mining.
As the global shipping industry continues to adapt to these challenges, stakeholders must remain agile and responsive to the evolving trade landscape. Strategic planning, investment in technology, and collaboration across sectors will be critical in navigating the uncertainties ahead.
