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A new Bellona Foundation analysis says 100 sanctioned vessels used Russia’s Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2025, a sharp jump from 13 the year before. Reporting based on that analysis adds that nearly one third of ships using the route this year were tied to the sanctioned “shadow fleet,” with oil and LNG tankers making up most of the activity. The same reporting flags recurring risk markers in Arctic waters: weak or missing ice class on some ships, AIS gaps, frequent flag changes, and reduced transparency after NSR administrators stopped publishing some route activity and incident summaries.
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Arctic NSR sees a sharp rise in sanctioned “shadow fleet” voyages
A Bellona Foundation analysis, echoed by multiple maritime outlets, says about 100 internationally sanctioned vessels used Russia’s Northern Sea Route in 2025, up from 13 in 2024. The reporting describes the sanctioned share as close to one third of the cargo ships using the route, with energy trades heavily represented.
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Quick facts that anchor the story
Count cited: 100 sanctioned vessels in 2025 versus 13 in 2024. Mix cited: 38 oil and oil product tankers, 13 LNG carriers, plus 39 cargo ships, 5 research vessels, and 5 service vessels. -
Why it matters to shipping economics
When sanctioned traffic becomes a large slice of a corridor, screening, insurance placement, and counterparty risk all get harder. Even firms not operating sanctioned tonnage can see higher friction and reputational sensitivity around Arctic-linked calls and services. -
Risk signals the market is watching
The coverage points to weak or missing ice class on some vessels, AIS gaps and frequent flag changes, and reports that some sanctioned tankers moved without formal NSR permits. Bellona also says public visibility has declined after NSR administrators stopped publishing some route activity data and incident summaries.
The NSR is becoming a bigger sanctions exposure zone. The consequence is not just regulatory. Arctic operating risk, thin rescue capacity, and lower transparency can translate into higher insurance and disruption costs that ripple into legitimate shipping activity near the same corridor.
Numbers that frame the shift
Vessel mix at a glance
Arctic risk markers that push costs up
The Bellona reporting on Northern Sea Route traffic points to a sharp increase in sanctioned vessel activity in 2025, with energy-linked tonnage forming a large share of the movements. The development matters to shipping stakeholders because Arctic operations amplify downside risk: weaker visibility, tougher navigation conditions, and limited response capacity can turn operational problems into high-cost events. At the same time, the surge also highlights how sanctions-linked trade is adapting by leaning on remote corridors, which can raise compliance and insurance friction across related services and counterparties as scrutiny follows the traffic.