COSCO Bets on 24 New Supertankers as the Global VLCC Orderbook Swells to 38% of Today’s Fleet

At an illustrative two million barrels per loaded VLCC, the planned fleet would hold approximately 48 million barrels in one fully laden cycle. That is a cargo-capacity comparison, not an annual oil-export forecast.

Industry effect: Large fleets allow cargo commitments and vessel positioning to be coordinated across many loading locations, but utilization depends on actual trade demand.

Six Yangzhou vessels are scheduled between August 2029 and November 2030; four Dalian units between September 2029 and May 2030; and all 14 planned charters during 2030.

Industry effect: The timing of deliveries, drydock retirements and global oil demand will determine whether this new capacity replaces older tankers or adds net supply.

Veson reported a 38% VLCC orderbook-to-fleet ratio in September 2026, up from 15% in September 2025. These figures precede COSCO's November announcement and should not be described as a newly recalculated ratio.

Industry effect: If trade growth and scrapping lag the deliveries, greater vessel availability could weaken freight earnings.

COSCO's directly contracted hulls create a shipbuilding investment and future ownership exposure. Bareboat-chartered ships allow operating control without the same initial purchase outlay, while leaving substantial fixed hire obligations.

Industry effect: The two structures respond differently to vessel residual values, debt arrangements and periods of weak freight rates.

RMB 17.4 billion is the maximum aggregate payment across the proposed leases, not their construction price or an upfront cash requirement. The actual per-day hire cannot be established from the total alone without final terms and payment schedules.

Industry effect: COSCO reduces immediate asset-purchase needs but accepts fixed contractual obligations during future freight cycles.

The 14 planned charter vessels include ten LNG dual-fuel ships and four conventionally powered ships. The ten directly ordered ships feature LNG-ready or LNG/methanol dual-fuel-ready arrangements.

Industry effect: Fuel-system maturity, future conversion costs, bunker availability and emissions regulation will affect operating competitiveness.

All ten directly ordered ships are assigned to domestic yards. COSCO's Yangzhou shipbuilder is a related party, requiring additional shareholder approval; Dalian's four-ship contract does not require that vote.

Industry effect: A concentrated Chinese industrial supply chain may simplify coordination but makes yard schedules, financing approvals and related-party governance important execution variables.

Veson recorded a 15-year-old, 310,000-dwt VLCC valuation of $139.2 million against $138.7 million for a comparable newbuilding at the end of September. The premium reflects the immediate earnings opportunity available from existing vessels.

Industry effect: Ordering for later delivery avoids some present secondhand premiums, but earnings by 2030 may look very different.

S&P Global Energy CERA projected total tanker capacity increasing from 703.72 million dwt at year-end 2025 to 862.98 million dwt in 2029, after taking orders and scrapping into account.

Industry effect: That is a forecast for the entire tanker fleet, not just VLCCs. Global utilization will depend on demand, vessel speed, sanctions, aging fleets and voyage distances.

Gulf security disruption and longer Atlantic Basin-to-Asia crude voyages have increased demand for tanker capacity in 2026. A return to shorter routes, changes in Middle Eastern exports, or a recovery of previously constrained vessels could alter future ton-mile demand.

Industry effect: Vessel value and freight-rate forecasts require route scenarios, not merely assumptions that today's strong rates will persist.