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The latest tanker market picture is no longer moving in one direction. Crude-tanker earnings remain unusually strong by historical standards, but the drivers underneath them are starting to split. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has partially resumed, with a handful of VLCC cargoes moving again, yet the corridor is still operating far below normal and major producers are warning that a full restoration of flows could take much longer than the market once hoped. At the same time, Atlantic Basin crude exports have surged as buyers in Asia and elsewhere replace disrupted Gulf supply with barrels from the United States, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela, tightening tanker availability on those routes and lifting tonne-mile demand. That Atlantic pull has strengthened some crude segments sharply, especially around the U.S. Gulf Coast, even as freight costs for Russian Urals cargoes have recently weakened because more ships are piling into Europe-facing and Russia-linked trades. The result is a market that still looks strong in headline earnings, but increasingly divided between areas of genuine tonnage scarcity and areas where redirected ships are starting to soften rates again.
The strongest tanker signal now is divergence, not simple strength
Freight markets are still elevated, but the support is coming from fewer Gulf sailings, more Atlantic replacement flows, and a very uneven redistribution of available ships.
| Market lane | Current position | Importance | Commercial effect | Next signal to watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC and crude tanker earnings | Crude tanker earnings are still running at unusually firm levels. Recent market commentary from listed owners says daily earnings remain in roughly the $80,000 to $120,000 range even after some easing from the most extreme peaks. Still strong, but off the hottest highs | The market has not normalized even though freight has come off the most frantic spike. | Owners are still capturing strong cash generation, while charterers are still paying historically elevated transport costs. | Whether earnings stabilize near current levels or fall faster as more tankers reposition into Atlantic trades. |
| Hormuz traffic recovery | Some crude liftings are moving again, but Hormuz remains far below normal. A few supertankers have exited with Gulf crude, yet reported daily crossings are still only a fraction of pre-conflict levels. Partial movement, not full recovery | The crude market is still being priced around restricted Gulf availability rather than open and reliable passage. | Freight remains supported because Gulf exports are constrained, staggered, and harder to schedule. | Whether daily tanker crossings rise meaningfully or stay stuck in a low-flow regime. |
| Atlantic Basin replacement flows | The Atlantic Basin is doing more of the balancing work. Higher exports from the U.S., Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela are increasingly feeding East-of-Suez demand. Long-haul demand still supportive | Longer voyages raise tonne-mile demand and tighten vessel availability where alternative crude supply is being loaded. | Atlantic-loading routes keep pulling tankers away from other markets and help support crude freight overall. | Whether Atlantic export growth keeps climbing or starts fading as reserve releases and substitution flows slow. |
| U.S. Gulf Coast tightness | Tanker availability around the U.S. Gulf Coast has tightened sharply. VLCC availability roughly halved, while Suezmax and Aframax supply also dropped hard as Asia and Europe sought replacement barrels. One of the tightest crude-loading zones | This region has become one of the main stress points in the global crude-tanker map. | Freight for Atlantic replacement barrels can surge quickly when local tonnage gets thin. | Whether vessel supply in the U.S. Gulf rebuilds or remains structurally tight into summer. |
| Russia-linked freight softness | Freight for Urals cargoes to India has recently weakened. An overhang of ships and redirected tonnage has pushed down some Aframax and Suezmax voyage costs on Russian routes. Softness appearing at the margin | Not every tanker lane is tightening. Some are loosening because the same redirection that hurts Gulf supply increases ship availability elsewhere. | Russian netbacks improve when freight falls, even while mainstream crude-tanker markets stay comparatively strong. | Whether Europe and Black Sea tonnage keeps building enough to pressure more regional routes. |
| Crude versus product tanker outlook | The broad medium-term setup looks stronger for crude than for products. Industry forecasts still see crude tanker demand outperforming product tanker demand as product-fleet growth runs faster than cargo growth. Structural divergence widening | The current market is not only about geopolitics. It is also about different supply-demand balances across tanker classes. | Crude owners may keep better earnings support than product-tanker owners if fleet growth stays more manageable. | Whether product tanker supply growth starts eroding returns faster in the second half. |
The latest tanker market is still strong in the headline numbers, but it is becoming more uneven underneath. Restricted Gulf flows keep freight elevated, while redirected ships are starting to soften selected Atlantic and Russia-linked routes.
The market is being pulled by two opposite forces at the same time
Restricted Gulf exports are still tightening effective tanker supply, while redirected ships and weaker oil demand are gradually building the conditions for softer rates on some routes.
The strongest way to read the current tanker market is as a collision between scarcity and redistribution. Scarcity is still coming from Hormuz, where the IEA says Gulf output in April remained 14.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels and where the agency also says cumulative losses from Gulf producers have already exceeded one billion barrels. Redistribution is coming from the Atlantic Basin, where higher production and exports from the Americas and other non-Gulf producers have been pulled toward hard-hit East-of-Suez buyers. That re-routing supports tonne-mile demand and keeps crude freight firm, but it also starts to move ships away from the Gulf and pile them into alternative loading zones and destination basins, which is why some regional rates are already easing even while the headline market stays hot.
The second big change is that the tanker market is no longer being driven only by crude demand. It is also being driven by inventory behavior and replacement logistics. Some owners and analysts still believe a fuller reopening of Hormuz could create another freight spike because restocking would follow. But that outcome is far from guaranteed. CMB.Tech’s chief executive has warned that the market may be underestimating how slowly Middle Eastern oil exports would return and overestimating how scarce tankers would remain once more vessels re-enter service. That is why the market now feels strong but unstable: it can stay elevated while flows remain constrained, yet it can also soften quickly if more tankers reappear in the wrong places at the same time that demand is weakening.
Atlantic barrels are doing more of the balancing work
IEA says Atlantic Basin crude exports have increased by 3.5 million barrels per day since February, which is one of the clearest reasons tonne-mile demand has remained so supportive for crude tankers.
U.S. Gulf tightness is one of the market’s clearest pressure points
Replacement demand from Asia and Europe drained tonnage from the U.S. Gulf Coast, where Reuters reported a 41% drop in overall tanker availability and very sharp declines in available VLCCs, Suezmaxes, and Aframaxes.
Russia-linked freight is showing the other side of the market
Reuters reported that freight costs for Urals cargoes to India have dropped as redirected vessels and shadow-fleet overhang increased ship availability in Europe-facing trades.
Crude and product tankers are no longer on the same earnings path
BIMCO still expects crude tanker supply-demand balances to remain firmer than product tanker balances, with product fleet growth running much faster than expected demand growth in 2026 and 2027.
This model is built for the current split tanker market. It shows how restricted Gulf flows and long-haul Atlantic substitution can keep crude freight elevated, while redirected tonnage, softer demand, and product-tanker oversupply build downside risk at the same time.
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