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A United Nations plan to create a protected fertilizer corridor through the Strait of Hormuz remains stalled as the next major planting window approaches, raising concern that a maritime disruption that began as an energy crisis could become an agricultural supply shock. Before the war, Hormuz handled roughly one-third of globally traded urea and nearly half of seaborne sulfur, while fertilizer shipments from Gulf producers have remained largely halted for more than six months. UN Under-Secretary-General Jorge Moreira da Silva says an agreed mechanism could be activated within 7 to 10 days and that passage of only five fertilizer vessels per day could maintain supplies to countries in critical need. The warning has become more immediate: IFAD President Alvaro Lario said on October 15 that reduced fertilizer use and more cautious planting are already appearing in harvest decisions, while agricultural commodity prices increased about 13% during the third quarter.
Five Ships a Day Could Protect a Planting Season
How the Proposed Passage System Would Work
The UN says the technical framework has already been developed and can be activated rapidly.
Washington and Tehran have exchanged proposals, but no agreement permitting the system to operate has been reached.
The Food Shock Arrives Months After the Shipping Shock
Ships stop first. Fertilizer inventories decline next. Farmers then reduce applications or plant differently. Lower yields appear only after those decisions have already been made.
Gulf fertilizer and feedstock cargoes cannot reliably reach export markets.
Farmers face fertilizer scarcity, higher transport costs and tighter credit.
Producers reduce fertilizer rates, postpone purchases or switch crops.
Lower nutrient application can reduce future production and tighten food supply.
Observed in 2026
Severe ICC Scenario
What Could Five Fertilizer Ships a Day Actually Move?
Change vessel frequency and average cargo size to estimate potential humanitarian-corridor throughput.