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Hapag-Lloyd reported $999 million in third-quarter group profit on November 12, 2026, compared with $172 million a year earlier, after its average liner freight rate increased 28% to $1,808 per TEU. The German container carrier recorded quarterly revenue of $6.88 billion and operating profit (EBIT) of $1.09 billion, while transported volume edged down to 3.383 million TEUs. On November 11, the company raised its full-year EBIT forecast for the third time in 2026, to $2.0 billion–$2.4 billion, from $1.25 billion–$1.75 billion. Its EBITDA guidance increased to $4.6 billion–$5.0 billion from $3.9 billion–$4.4 billion. The new EBIT range represents a $700 million increase at the midpoint. Hapag-Lloyd attributed the revision to elevated spot freight rates and stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter performance.
Third-Quarter Profit Nears $1 Billion as Freight Rates Leap 28%
Nearly double the $866 million reported in the third quarter of 2025.
Versus a 4.2% group EBIT margin in Q3 2025, an increase of 11.6 percentage points.
Five quarters of average liner freight rates
Reported realized rates, including the carrier's customer mix. These are not a spot-market index.
Source: Hapag-Lloyd's November 12 investor presentation. All bars use $1,808 per TEU as the maximum.
The third 2026 guidance increase
November 11 executive-board decision, reiterated with the November 12 nine-month results.
Previous forecast: $1.25B–$1.75B.
Previous forecast: $3.9B–$4.4B.
One Powerful Quarter.
Two Very Different Earnings Stories.
What the new 2026 forecast requires from Q4
Full-year EBIT target less reported nine-month EBIT of $1.104B.
Full-year EBITDA target less reported nine-month EBITDA of $3.048B.
Q3 EBIT as a share of nine-month group EBIT, a calculated comparison.
Nine-month $827M profit less Q3 profit of $999M.
Four stages of Hapag-Lloyd's full-year EBIT guidance
Hapag-Lloyd attributes higher rates to demand and capacity restrictions, while Middle East diversions, longer voyages, weather and port disruption add operating costs.
Growth includes first-time full consolidation of J M Baxi's container business. The company reached 27 marine-terminal interests following its October 30 Maasvlakte II transaction.
The approximately $4.2B planned ZIM acquisition remains subject to approvals, with closing expected in Q1 2027. Forecast consolidation effects are excluded.
The industry newbuilding orderbook stood at 14.2M TEUs at September's end, equal to 41.8% of existing global capacity, creating a future supply consideration.
How Much Is a $100 Freight-Rate Move Worth?
Q4 earnings assumptions
The five Simple inputs start from actual Q3 reported values. Advanced mode introduces additional operational cost and terminal adjustments.
Nine-month actual EBIT plus hypothetical fourth-quarter EBIT. Compare with official full-year guidance of $2.0B–$2.4B.
Q3 EBIT adjusted for modeled changes in rate, volume, cost and other factors.
Includes actual nine-month EBITDA and modeled Q4 EBITDA.
Difference in assumed average realized freight rate per TEU.
Indicative Q4 realized rate under all other selected model assumptions.
Q4 earnings bridge
EBIT bar scale: $0–$3B. EBITDA bar scale: $0–$6B. Official guidance is a range, not the full bar.
Freight budget assumptions
The rate defaults are Hapag-Lloyd's reported Q3 averages for 2025 and 2026, not specific contractual quotes. Use your own market or booking prices if known.
Difference between the old reference freight budget and the modeled new budget, including any selected surcharges and extra holding costs.
Number of TEUs to which the selected rate change applies.
All modeled TEUs at the previous reference price.
Unexposed cargo retains the old rate.
Total modeled additional cost divided by all shipment TEUs.
Budget change breakdown
Methodology, definitions and limitations
Carrier model: Q4 modeled EBIT = Q3 group EBIT + [(Q4 rate − Q4 unit cost) × Q4 TEUs − (Q3 rate − Q3 unit cost) × Q3 TEUs] + other EBIT adjustments − additional operational costs. Values are expressed in millions of USD when volume is in millions of TEUs.
Advanced extra bunker and port costs are multiplied by Q4 TEUs and subtracted separately. They must not also be included in the base unit-cost slider. The group EBIT anchor is $1.085B, the Q3 volume baseline is 3.383M TEUs, and the base price-cost spread is $286 per TEU. The difference between that spread and actual EBIT is held constant in the basic sensitivity calculation; it is not identified as a verified separate revenue stream.
FY EBIT = actual 9M EBIT ($1.104B) + modeled Q4 EBIT. Q4 EBITDA = modeled Q4 EBIT + assumed Q4 depreciation/amortization gap. FY EBITDA = actual 9M EBITDA ($3.048B) + modeled Q4 EBITDA. The default $641M Q4 gap equals reported Q3 EBITDA minus Q3 EBIT.
Shipper model: Exposed TEUs = total TEUs × exposure percentage. Rate change = exposed TEUs × (new rate − old rate). Add selected surcharges on exposed units and any separately modeled delay and handling costs on all units. This is a hypothetical budget sensitivity, not an actual customer invoice or proof of a freight-rate pass-through.
Key caveats: Hapag-Lloyd's Q3 $1,808/TEU is its blended realized rate, not a spot index, public tariff, route-specific freight quote or guaranteed Q4 rate. Unit costs are companywide liner metrics. The carrier model does not forecast taxes, financial results, exchange rates, acquisitions or group net income. No modeled result should be described as company guidance. The official 2026 forecast excludes the pending ZIM transaction and remains subject to uncertainty.
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