QatarEnergy Warns Hormuz Crisis Could Delay Parts of 142 MTPA LNG Expansion

September 21, 2026

QatarEnergy says the Strait of Hormuz crisis could begin delaying parts of its massive North Field LNG expansion because critical equipment is still unable to reach Qatar. CEO Saad al-Kaabi said the first 8-MTPA North Field East train remains on schedule for the first half of 2027, with additional NFE trains also targeted for 2027, but warned that continued disruption could push later projects back. North Field South is scheduled to begin production in 2028, while QatarEnergy’s wider plan would raise domestic LNG capacity from 77 MTPA to 142 MTPA by 2030, an 85% increase. The warning comes while Qatar is already producing only a small volume of LNG after attacks on Ras Laffan disabled about 17% of existing capacity, including two LNG trains that could require roughly three years to repair.

North Field Expansion · Hormuz Supply Chain Risk

The First Train Is Still On Schedule. The Risk Starts Behind It.

QatarEnergy's immediate warning is not that the entire North Field program has slipped. The first North Field East mega-train remains targeted for the first half of 2027. The concern is that critical equipment unable to enter Qatar could begin pushing later trains and subsequent phases backward if the maritime disruption continues.

CRITICAL EQUIPMENT BLOCKED

QatarEnergy says equipment required for the expansion is still unable to reach Qatar because of the Strait of Hormuz disruption. No quantified delay has yet been announced for the later trains.

Qatar's LNG Capacity Buildout

Existing Nameplate 77 MTPA

Fourteen existing LNG trains before the North Field expansion.

→

North Field East +32 MTPA

Four new 8-MTPA mega-trains. First train remains targeted for H1 2027.

→

North Field South +16 MTPA

Two additional 8-MTPA trains. Production currently expected to begin in 2028.

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North Field West +16 MTPA

Two more 8-MTPA trains, taking domestic LNG capacity to 142 MTPA by 2030.

First NFE Train H1 2027

QatarEnergy says the first train is progressing well and remains on the current schedule.

Later Expansion At Risk

Continued inability to import critical project equipment could delay later trains.

Existing LNG Capacity Hit 17%

Two existing Ras Laffan LNG trains were damaged in attacks earlier in 2026.

2030 Capacity Target 142 MTPA

An 85% increase from QatarEnergy's 77-MTPA pre-expansion nameplate capacity.

Mega-Trains Added 8

Four NFE, two NFS and two NFW trains.

Each New Train 8 MTPA

One of the largest standardized LNG train sizes in the industry.

Domestic Growth +65 MTPA

Planned increase from 77 to 142 MTPA.

Hormuz Bypass None Planned

QatarEnergy says proposed regional pipeline alternatives are not practical commercially or technically.

Liquefaction · Project Logistics · Shipping · Repair · Diversification

The Expansion Risk Is Bigger Than One Startup Date

Hormuz now sits in the middle of three separate QatarEnergy problems: getting construction equipment into the country, getting existing LNG production back online, and eventually getting tens of millions of tonnes of additional LNG out to customers.

Top scrollbar · project exposure ← →

Asset / Program	Scale	Current Schedule	Current Position	Hormuz Exposure	Shipping Implication	Key Distinction
FIRST TRAIN ON TRACK North Field East	4 × 8-MTPA trains 32 MTPA total	First train expected in H1 2027. QatarEnergy expects additional NFE trains during 2027.	Al-Kaabi says NFE is progressing well.	Critical equipment required for later work is unable to reach Qatar while maritime access remains disrupted.	When fully online, NFE alone adds the equivalent of more than 40% of Qatar's current 77-MTPA LNG capacity.	No formal delay has been announced for the first train.
LATER PHASE North Field South	2 × 8-MTPA trains 16 MTPA total	Production currently expected to begin in 2028.	QatarEnergy says the project is progressing well.	Longer disruption increases the probability that equipment delivery and construction sequencing begin affecting schedule.	Adds another major tranche of future Ras Laffan export volume requiring LNG carrier availability and safe Hormuz access.	QatarEnergy has warned of possible project delays but has not provided a revised NFS startup date.
2030 BUILDOUT North Field West	2 × 8-MTPA trains 16 MTPA total	Included in QatarEnergy's target of reaching 142 MTPA by the end of 2030.	Third expansion phase.	The longer the regional logistics disruption persists, the greater the potential knock-on risk across procurement and construction sequences.	Final phase would push Qatar's domestic LNG system to almost double its pre-expansion scale.	No current announcement says the 2030 capacity target has changed.
DAMAGED Existing Ras Laffan Trains	Approximately 12.8 MTPA offline.	Repairs to two damaged LNG trains could take around three years under the latest QatarEnergy estimate.	Roughly 17% of national LNG production capacity remains affected.	Even intact liquefaction capacity remains constrained commercially while LNG carriers cannot move normally through Hormuz.	QatarEnergy says it is currently producing only a very small amount of LNG.	This is damage to existing capacity, not damage to the new NFE trains.
OUTSIDE HORMUZ Golden Pass LNG Texas	3 trains ~18 MTPA	First LNG cargo shipped in April 2026. Trains 2 and 3 expected to be fully operational in 2027.	QatarEnergy / ExxonMobil U.S. export project.	Not dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for exports.	Provides QatarEnergy with growing LNG production and trading exposure outside the Gulf.	Golden Pass cannot physically replace Ras Laffan's entire expansion, but it adds geographic diversification.
FLEET BUILDOUT QatarEnergy LNG Carriers	128-vessel newbuilding program.	104 conventional 174,000-m³ LNG carriers plus 24 QC-Max ships of 271,000 m³.	Largest single LNG shipbuilding program described by QatarEnergy.	The new fleet supports North Field expansion, but vessels loading in Qatar still require access through Hormuz.	The liquefaction expansion is therefore matched by an equally large shipping-capacity expansion.	More ships solve fleet capacity. They do not solve the geographic chokepoint.

Bottom scrollbar · project exposure ← →

Scale Behind the Warning

Domestic LNG Growth 77 → 142 MTPA

QatarEnergy's planned 85% production-capacity increase by 2030.

Expansion Trains 8 Mega-Trains

Each new liquefaction train is designed for approximately 8 MTPA.

New LNG Ships 128

QatarEnergy's fleet program supports North Field and Golden Pass volumes.

Largest New LNGCs 271,000 m³

Twenty-four QC-Max vessels form the largest class in the program.

Two separate clocks are running: QatarEnergy says normal gas operations could restart within weeks once Hormuz reopens, but repairing the two physically damaged LNG trains could take years. At the same time, construction delays can accumulate if expansion equipment continues to miss its required delivery windows.

Ship Universe LNG Expansion Tool

North Field Delay Exposure Analyzer

Model the volume that would be deferred if one or more 8-MTPA expansion trains start later than planned. The calculation measures timing exposure, not permanent loss of LNG production capacity.

Expansion Trains Affected

trains

North Field expansion comprises eight planned 8-MTPA trains.

Delay per Affected Train

months

Scenario input. QatarEnergy has not announced a quantified delay.

Capacity per New Train

MTPA

Representative LNG Cargo

tonnes

Editable conversion assumption. Actual cargo mass varies by vessel size and loading conditions.

Current Qatar LNG Capacity

MTPA

2030 Domestic Capacity Target

MTPA

Deferred LNG Volume 2.0 Mt capacity × affected trains × delay fraction

Cargo Equivalent 25 illustrative LNG cargoes at entered cargo mass

Affected Annual Capacity 8 MTPA nameplate capacity represented by selected trains

Share of Expansion 12.3% affected train capacity versus 65-MTPA domestic expansion

Current Capacity Equivalent 2.6% deferred tonnage versus one year of current nameplate capacity

Monthly Output per Train 0.67 Mt 8 MTPA divided across twelve months

Delay Scale

Visualize the entered scenario against the full eight-train North Field expansion.

Affected Trains

1 / 8

Affected Capacity

8 MTPA

Deferred Volume

2.0 Mt

Scenario Classification Limited Slip

The modeled delay affects one expansion train for a short period and defers a relatively small share of the full North Field buildout.

Affected Trains 1

Delay 3 Months

Expansion Growth +65 MTPA

2030 Target 142 MTPA

Scenario model: QatarEnergy has warned that continued Hormuz disruption could delay projects, but it has not announced how many trains would be affected or by how many months. Deferred volume is therefore an illustrative timing calculation. It does not mean the LNG is permanently lost, and it does not model construction sequencing, ramp-up curves, maintenance downtime or commercial contract terms.

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