VLCC, Capesize, Container: Which Segments Are Really Under-Ordered Going Into 2027?

🛢️ VLCCs – under ordered or catching up?

After years of very low fleet growth, VLCCs are moving into a renewal cycle that looks moderate on paper but tighter in practice because so much capacity sits in an older, restricted sub-fleet.

Takeaway: VLCCs are no longer “forgotten” in the yard orderbook, but they are still a long way from the aggressive ordering seen in the container space.

2️⃣ Deliveries and retirements

• Only a small number of VLCCs were delivered in 2024–2025, which kept fleet growth very low in the near term.
• Deliveries rise sharply from 2026, with dozens of ships scheduled each year as owners finally renew older units.
• A significant group of ships that reach 20 years plus through 2027 already face charter and insurance barriers.
• This mix of low recent deliveries, a bulge of ageing ships and a rising orderbook keeps the real supply picture finely balanced.

3️⃣ Age, sanctions and effective fleet size

• Analysts highlight an unusually high share of VLCCs above 15 and 20 years in the global fleet.
• Many of the oldest units are concentrated in sanctioned or grey trades, where major oil companies and banks are absent.
• For mainstream charterers, the usable VLCC pool is closer to the modern and mid-age fleet, not the total fleet on the register.
• That gap between headline and effective supply is a big reason why rates can move even when the orderbook percentage looks moderate.

4️⃣ Owner playbook: what to watch into 2027

• Track how much of the VLCC orderbook is dual fuel or clearly more efficient, not just the raw number of ships.
• Compare the delivery curve with the schedule of ships crossing 15 and 20 years to see when high-grade supply actually tightens.
• Follow sanctions and compliance rules that may lock more older tonnage into restricted trades or, in some scenarios, force early recycling.
• Check yard slot availability: ordering now often means a delivery date around 2028 or later, which matters for cycle timing.

5️⃣ Questions boards and lenders will ask

• Is the VLCC exposure concentrated in ships that will still clear vetting after 2030, or in older units that may become hard to place?
• How sensitive are forward earnings to a scenario where the VLCC orderbook grows further from the mid-teens into higher territory?
• Do planning decks use effective fleet estimates that strip out grey tonnage, or just headline fleet statistics?
• Where does VLCC renewal sit versus other capital needs such as scrubbers, future fuel readiness and digital upgrades?

⚓ Capesize and dry bulk – still the disciplined corner?

Dry bulk carries one of the lowest orderbook to fleet ratios in deep sea shipping, and within that picture Capesize sits in a narrow band of replacement tonnage rather than a growth spree. Net fleet growth is slow and many ships are older, which keeps the supply story quite different from containers.

The main message is that bulkers in general, and Capes in particular, have not repeated the aggressive ordering seen on the container side.

2️⃣ Age profile and demolition pressure

• Dry bulk fleets include a substantial block of older ships above 20 years, particularly in smaller sizes, while the Capesize and VLOC segment is younger but still carries a visible tail of older units.
• Low scrapping in recent years means ageing ships remain on the water even where earnings are marginal.
• Stricter emissions and efficiency rules are expected to push more older bulkers toward recycling through the late 2020s.
• In Capesize, replacement orders are increasingly tied to fuel efficiency and regulatory compliance rather than pure volume bets.

3️⃣ Speed, downtime and effective capacity

• New carbon rules and technical speed limits keep average Capesize speeds low, which reduces effective supply without scrapping a single ship.
• Higher drydock time for retrofits and maintenance further trims the number of days available for earning cargo.
• Owners with modern eco Capes can trade at competitive speeds while still clearing CII and fuel cost requirements.
• For charterers, this splits the market between vessels that can take long term contracts comfortably and those that are increasingly confined to opportunistic spot work.

4️⃣ Owner playbook to 2027

• Track how much of the dry bulk orderbook sits in Capesize versus smaller segments and how much is alternative fuel capable.
• Map the age curve of your own Capes against expected regulatory tightening and likely demolition windows.
• Stress test earnings with slightly lower effective supply, not just headline fleet numbers, to understand upside scenarios.
• Watch iron ore and coal tonne mile demand into Asia as the key driver for whether a “disciplined” orderbook really turns into a sustained tight market.

5️⃣ Questions boards and lenders will ask

• Are we treating Capesize as a structurally tight segment or as one that could swing quickly if contracting picks up again?
• How much of our exposure depends on older bulkers that may struggle with future carbon and efficiency rules?
• Do our investment cases use realistic assumptions on speed, off hire and drydock time, or just nameplate capacity?
• How does Capesize capital compete with alternative uses of cash, including containers, tankers or returning money to shareholders?

📦 Container ships – record orderbook, long overhang

Boxships are the clear outlier in this cycle. The global container orderbook has climbed to record territory as a share of the fleet, much of it in large alternative fuel capable ships. Even if part of that replaces older tonnage, most analysts now expect supply to run ahead of demand well into the second half of the decade.

For owners, the key question is not whether the orderbook is large but how much of it is truly replacement versus net growth that competes directly with today’s fleet.

2️⃣ Age profile and replacement pressure

• Average container fleet age has risen into the low to mid teen years, making it the oldest of the main deep sea sectors in many comparisons.
• Roughly a fifth of capacity sits above twenty years of age, particularly in mid sized and smaller ships that are less efficient on fuel and emissions.
• Analyst work comparing TEU on order with TEU older than twenty years suggests the current orderbook is more than sufficient to replace ageing tonnage.
• The real unknown is how fast owners are willing or able to recycle older ships while freight markets remain volatile.

3️⃣ Alternative fuels and competitive gap

• A high share of recent container orders are alternative fuel capable or built around very low consumption profiles.
• Many large newbuilds sit in the 8 000 TEU and above brackets, concentrated in neo panamax and larger classes that dominate mainline trades.
• Older conventional ships can compete on capital cost but face higher operating expenses and more pressure from emissions rules and customer expectations.
• Once the new cohort delivers in full, charterers will have far more choice of efficient, low emission ships at each size band.

4️⃣ Owner playbook to 2027 and beyond

• Segment your fleet by size, age and fuel capability, then map that against the delivery schedule in each trade lane you serve.
• Stress test earnings with realistic assumptions on new tonnage arrival, slow steaming and possible demand shocks, not just base case growth curves.
• Consider whether new orders genuinely upgrade your position or simply add capacity into an already heavy pipeline.
• Keep close track of alliance capacity management and blank sailing patterns, since these will be the main tools used to absorb surplus ships.

5️⃣ Questions boards and lenders will ask

• How exposed are we to a long period of softer freight rates if fleet growth stays ahead of demand to the end of the decade.
• Does our fleet plan treat alternative fuel capable ships as a must have standard, or as a niche add on.
• Are we relying on slow steaming alone to absorb capacity, and if so how does that affect service quality and contract commitments.
• Where does new container tonnage sit in the queue against other capital needs like tanker or bulk exposure, logistics investments or debt reduction.