VLCC Ordering Wave Builds Momentum as Owners Lock In 2028 Delivery Slots
The VLCC signal is broad-based ordering momentum, not one yard headline. Over the last few weeks, multiple owner groups have been committing to 306,000 dwt VLCC newbuildings with delivery largely clustered in 2028, including fresh contracting tied to Capital, Eastern Pacific, and additional Greek-linked buyers stepping into or expanding crude exposure. In parallel, reported benchmark value levels for modern VLCCs are firming, which narrows the perceived gap between buying today versus building for later. The combination matters for shipowners because it shifts the forward supply narrative earlier than many expected, and that can influence term negotiations, asset pricing, and the upside profile of the next cycle even if spot conditions stay constructive.
| Signal piece | What moved | Fast impact path | Operator-facing tell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Order clustering | Multiple owners are contracting 306,000 dwt VLCCs with deliveries concentrated in the second half of 2028, including fresh disclosed batches and follow-on deals by different groups. | When delivery windows cluster, forward supply becomes easier for charterers to plan around and harder for owners to “surprise” the market with scarcity narratives in term talks. | Longer-dated charter coverage conversations start referencing delivery timing and optionality more than spot sentiment. |
| Scale and pace | Recent reporting highlights large VLCC packages, including an 11-ship order by Capital-linked interests and additional VLCC bookings by other buyers in the same timeframe. | Big, repeated batches accelerate the cycle because they can pull peers into “keep up” ordering when they see slots tighten. | Brokers and yards talk less about “availability” and more about “which quarter can you still get.” |
| Owner mix | The buyer set spans repeat tanker builders and groups returning to VLCC exposure, including Eastern Pacific’s VLCC return and additional Greek-linked entrants ordering new crude tonnage. | A broader buyer base reduces the chance this is just one sponsor’s strategy and increases the odds the orderbook keeps growing. | More competing specifications appear, with owners converging on similar modern designs aimed at charterer acceptance. |
| Asset value backdrop | Reported benchmarks for modern VLCC values have been firming, including Clarksons-referenced levels for 5-year and resale units cited around late January. | When secondhand values strengthen, the perceived penalty of ordering newbuilds can shrink, supporting more contracting. | Owners and lenders become more willing to underwrite newbuild exposure when resale values look supportive. |
| Broader tanker order tone | The ordering backdrop is not limited to VLCCs, with additional tanker newbuilding activity reported across crude and product segments. | Wider tanker contracting can tighten yard capacity and pull VLCC delivery dates later, which changes how quickly supply hits but does not remove the supply signal. | Slot scarcity becomes part of negotiation strategy, including earlier down-payments and faster option declarations. |
Comprehensive Overview
Bottom-Line Effect
The signal is forward supply visibility arriving early in the year: multiple VLCC orders landing close together, with deliveries commonly pointed at 2028. That pattern can increase charterer confidence in future availability and can flatten long-dated upside for owners unless demand surprises to the upside or the exit pace accelerates. Near-term rates can still be strong, but the forward story is shifting toward a more competitive supply picture.
What keeps the ordering wave alive
Bars are directional. The ordering pulse is visible through repeated VLCC contracting, while the offset from exits depends on earnings, surveys, and recycling economics.
Owner tells that usually appear as a VLCC orderbook grows
- Term discussions shorten in duration or include more redelivery flexibility as charterers anticipate more forward optionality.
- S&P focus shifts from headline prices to delivery dates, specifications, and ability to secure employment around delivery.
- More “platform standardization” where owners repeat the same yard and design to reduce build and acceptance risk.
How this shows up on commercial desks
- Charterers become more selective on long period deals, especially if they can wait for 2028 availability.
- Owners with near-term open ships can still enjoy spot leverage, but medium-term leverage can soften as order visibility rises.
- Optionality value rises: vessels with better fuel performance and charterer-favored specs can separate from the pack.
Net fleet change (ships)
+35
Deliveries minus exits for your chosen window.
Net change vs fleet
+3.9%
Simple scale gauge, not a forecast.
Commercial cue
Term resistance risk rises
Meaningful net growth can shift bargaining power toward charterers in forward coverage.
This is a simplified lens. Actual impact depends on demand growth, tonne-miles, speed, port constraints, and how much older tonnage slows down or exits.
Source note
Ordering momentum examples include: Capital-linked interests reported ordering 11 VLCCs, additional VLCC newbuild bookings tied to Navios and Monte Nero, and Eastern Pacific’s VLCC return with further 306,000 dwt contracting with 2028 delivery timing. Value backdrop includes Clarksons-referenced benchmarks for VLCC values cited in late January reporting.
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