VLCC Shortage Sends Newbuild Supertankers Sprinting Empty for Crude

December 12, 2025

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Refinery-fresh VLCCs that would normally start life carrying refined products out of Asia are now sailing in ballast straight to crude loading areas, as owners chase tight slots in an overheated crude market. The unusual pattern is a clear signal that available VLCC tonnage is stretched, with longer voyages, sanctions reshuffles, and stronger demand all combining to lift earnings and redraw deployment plans.

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New VLCCs are skipping the usual product voyages and racing in ballast to lift crude instead, a clear sign that available large crude tonnage is thin and earnings on core routes have firmed.

Market tone – Prompt VLCC lists are tight on key long-haul crude trades, supporting stronger spot and time-charter levels.
Cost and planning – Oil majors and traders face higher freight and less flexibility on late liftings, with more value in early cover and COAs.
Fleet decisions – Owners weigh fresh orders, life extensions and retrofit spend against today’s strong returns and an older global VLCC fleet.

Item	Summary	Business mechanics	Bottom-line effect
VLCC Shortage has new Supertankers Sailing Empty for Crude
Empty newbuild sprints	A number of newly built VLCCs that would typically lift refined products on first voyages are instead leaving Asian yards in ballast to load crude as soon as possible.	Owners are choosing immediate crude employment over gradual ramp up on product trades because available VLCC slots are tight on key long haul crude routes. That is a visible sign that demand for large crude carriers is outrunning near term supply.	📈 Strong signal of tight VLCC availability and firm owner negotiating power on prompt cargoes. 📉 Charterers that rely on last minute fixing in the Atlantic and Middle East face higher freight and less choice.
Supply side and fleet profile	VLCC ordering and sale activity has slowed while scrapping remains low, leaving an ageing fleet and limited near term capacity growth even as utilisation rises.	High newbuilding prices, long delivery slots and fuel technology uncertainty have kept many owners from adding ships. At the same time only a few older VLCCs have gone for recycling, so more work is being done with roughly the same number of hulls.	📈 Tight structural supply supports firm asset values and stronger period earnings for existing VLCC owners. 📉 Limited replacement options raise technical and regulatory risk for operators who continue to run older units hard.
Longer routes and tonne miles	Sanctions reshuffles, Red Sea routing changes and strong Asian demand are pushing more crude on longer VLCC routes, which locks ships in longer voyages and tightens effective supply.	Barrel flows that might once have moved on shorter Middle East to Europe legs are increasingly routed to Asia or around risk areas. Each extra day at sea ties up capacity that cannot be used for other cargoes, which lifts utilisation across the segment.	📈 More tonne miles per cargo support higher base freight levels across the VLCC curve. 📉 Extra days at sea raise fuel and operating cost for charterers and make schedule planning more complex.
Spot and period charter dynamics	VLCC spot earnings have climbed and one year time charter rates have pushed above earlier levels as charterers compete for prompt tonnage in a thin list.	Oil majors and traders that need reliable liftings are shifting more volume into COAs and longer term cover. Owners are able to lock in higher floors on time charters while still keeping some exposure to spikes on the spot market.	📈 Owners gain improved earnings visibility and stronger cash generation when fixing forward at higher levels. 📉 Cargo interests see freight become a larger share of delivered barrel cost and may need to adjust margins or pricing.
Newbuild, retrofit and life extension choices	Tighter markets and strong returns revive interest in scrubber retrofits, potential life extensions and selective newbuilding, but decisions are complicated by fuel transition and regulatory timelines.	Owners weigh whether to order new VLCCs at high prices and far out slots, invest in upgrades on mid life ships, or run older units longer while earnings are strong. Financiers and yards are watching closely to judge how long the upcycle may last.	📈 Strong current earnings can justify targeted capex on efficient ships and well priced yard deals. 📉 A late rush of orders based on current rates risks over supply and weaker returns later in the decade.
Spillover to wider tanker and freight markets	When VLCCs are scarce, some long haul crude and fuel flows switch into smaller crude tankers and clean segments, which can tighten those markets and reshape regional rate patterns.	Aframax and suezmax owners may see extra demand on certain routes as charterers split VLCC cargoes into smaller parcels. That can lift earnings across several tanker sizes and shift where ships are positioned between basins.	📈 Tightness at the top of the tanker stack can support firmer returns for owners across multiple segments. 📉 Charterers that operate mixed fleets face a broader uplift in freight costs and more competition for flexible ships.
Notes: Readout based on recent reporting that newly built VLCCs are leaving Asian yards in ballast to load crude, combined with market analysis on VLCC ordering, scrapping, earnings and tonne mile trends. Actual impacts vary by fleet age, financing, scrubber and fuel setup, and regional cargo mix.

VLCC tightness at a glance

Newbuilds leaving yards in ballast for crude liftings are the visible tip of a tight VLCC market driven by longer routes, sanctions reshuffles and cautious ordering.

Spot market tone Firm, thin prompt lists on key crude legs

Tonne-mile loading Longer hauls keep more hulls tied up per cargo

Newbuild pipeline Limited near-term deliveries, high yard prices

Rate and utilisation pulse (directional)

VLCC spot earnings		Strong
One-year time charter appetite		Active
Effective fleet utilisation		Elevated
New ordering momentum		Cautious

Bars are qualitative signals for current conditions relative to a “normal” VLCC market, not forecasts or specific rate levels.

Where tightness helps owners 📈

More ballast sprints for crude are a sign that VLCCs are in demand even before formal fixtures are signed.
Firm spot returns support stronger levels on time charters and can improve loan and refinancing conversations.
Modern, fuel-efficient ships are better placed to capture the upside where longer routes magnify bunker savings.

Where cost pressure builds for charterers 📉

Competition for prompt hulls raises freight for late-planned liftings and reduces flexibility on load dates.
Crude trades that once relied on “opportunistic” VLCC cover may need more structured COAs or period cover.
Longer tonne-mile patterns make it harder to reposition ships quickly when margins or arbitrages shift.

Fleet slices: where the squeeze shows up first

Segment	Readout
Core VLCC owners Direct beneficiaries	Higher utilisation and firmer earnings across benchmark routes, with the best upside on flexible, younger ships able to switch quickly between Atlantic and Pacific employment.
Oil majors and traders Freight cost risk	Pay more for last-minute coverage and may need to adjust contract terms, hedging or sourcing patterns if tightness persists into new trading cycles.
Suezmax / aframax owners Indirect impact	Some crude flows can be split into smaller parcels when VLCCs are scarce, tightening utilisation in adjacent tanker sizes on specific routes.
Older VLCC tonnage Short-term lift	Tight conditions can keep ageing ships in play for longer, but regulatory and class timelines still cap how far life extension can go in practice.

Relative effects vary by charter coverage, technical setup and exposure to sanction-related trades and longer-haul crude flows.

The empty sprint of new VLCCs into crude loadings is a visible symptom of how tight the large crude carrier market has become. For now it supports firmer earnings and asset values across much of the VLCC fleet, while pushing freight and planning risk back onto cargo interests. How long that pattern lasts will depend on fresh ordering decisions, any shift in sanctions-driven trade flows, and whether longer-haul crude routes remain the norm rather than the exception.

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