Turkey’s Quiet Pivot On Russian Oil Shakes Up Med Crude Trades

December 2, 2025

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Turkey has sharply cut its purchases of Russia’s flagship Urals crude in November, trimming volumes by around 100,000 barrels per day to about 200,000 bpd, according to Kpler and LSEG data. That is a clear step down from peaks near 400,000 bpd earlier in the year. To keep refineries running, Turkey is pulling in more barrels from Kazakhstan – mainly CPC Blend and KEBCO – and from Iraq’s Basrah grades, which are not hit by Western sanctions. For shipowners this is a quiet but important route shift: fewer Urals barrels into Turkish ports, more Kazakh and Iraqi flows through the Bosphorus and into the wider Med, plus the risk that displaced Russian crude chases longer-haul buyers elsewhere.

Click here for 30 second summary

Turkey’s crude pivot in 30 seconds

Turkey has cut its imports of Russian Urals to roughly 200,000 barrels per day and is filling the gap with more Kazakh CPC Blend and Iraqi Basrah grades. The barrels still move through the Black Sea and Turkish straits, but a bigger share now comes from origins that are easier to finance and insure under Western sanctions. For tankers this means fewer simple short haul Urals runs into Turkey and more business tied to CPC reliability, straits conditions and Gulf to Med routes.

🧭 What changed

A major regional buyer is rebalancing away from discounted Russian crude toward Kazakh and Iraqi supplies, keeping refineries fed while lowering sanctions and banking friction on core barrels.

⛽ Impact on ships and routes

Short haul Black Sea to Turkey Urals voyages shrink, while Aframax demand on CPC flows and Suezmax or VLCC combinations from the Gulf to the Med gain weight in the portfolio.

📊 Two tier tanker market

Displaced Urals move further into long haul and shadow trades, widening the gap between compliant fleets that focus on Kazakh and Iraqi barrels and higher risk operators that stay active on Russian flows.

Bottom line: Turkey’s quieter pivot does not cut Russian exports, but it rewires who lifts which barrels and on what terms. Owners and charterers now need separate strategies for compliant Med and Kazakh business versus Russian linked routes, each with different earnings, risk and financing dynamics.

Item	Summary	Business mechanics	Bottom-line effect
Turkey trims Russian Urals, leans on Kazakh and Iraqi grades: Industry Impact
How much Urals is gone	Urals arrivals into Turkey in November fell by about 100,000 barrels per day to roughly 200,000 bpd, down from peaks near 400,000 bpd earlier in the year.	Tracking data shows a clear step down as Turkey reduces exposure to Russian crude ahead of tighter rules on fuels made from Russian oil.	📉 Fewer short haul Black Sea to Turkey runs for standard Aframax and Suezmax tonnage. 📈 More Russian barrels will chase longer haul buyers, adding tonne miles where they are accepted.
Rise of CPC Blend and KEBCO	Turkish refiners are lifting Kazakh CPC Blend and KEBCO, with November CPC volumes into Turkey at their highest level since early 2024.	Kazakh grades ship via the CPC system to the Black Sea, then through the Turkish straits to Med refineries, and are treated as non Russian in sanctions terms.	📈 Extra CPC flows support steady employment for Aframaxes through the Bosphorus. 📉 Any CPC or straits disruption now hits a larger share of Turkey’s “clean” sour supply.
More Basrah and Iraqi grades	Iraq’s Basrah grades are covering part of the gap, supplying medium sour crude that fits Turkish refinery configurations.	Cargoes move from the Gulf to the Med on Suezmax and VLCC combinations, via Suez or Cape, adding longer haul legs to Turkey’s crude mix.	📈 Longer routes add tonne miles and support mid and large crude carrier demand. 📉 Exposure to Suez delays and regional tensions feeds directly into freight and margin volatility.
Sanctions and price cap risk	Stronger enforcement of sanctions and the G7 price cap makes Urals trades more complex for ships, banks and insurers, even when buyers are not under EU rules.	When Urals prices move near or above the cap, access to Western insurance and finance tightens, raising transaction costs versus Kazakh or Iraqi barrels.	📉 Mainstream owners become more cautious on Russian-linked cargoes, shrinking the pool of “clean” tonnage. 📈 Operators willing to take higher compliance risk can earn premiums on niche voyages.
Where displaced Urals go	Reduced Turkish demand pushes Urals toward India, China and smaller buyers, usually on longer routes and with more ship to ship transfers.	These flows rely heavily on older, shadow fleet tankers outside mainstream insurance, while conventional fleets focus on non sanctioned business.	📈 Rerouting supports high utilisation and longer hauls for shadow operators. 📉 Conventional owners lose some volume and must compete harder on cleaner Med and Atlantic trades.
Straits traffic and Med balances	The Turkish mix still runs through the Bosphorus, but with a higher share of Kazakh barrels and relatively fewer Russian state company exports.	Weather, queue management and any CPC or straits incident now have a bigger impact on non Russian sour flows into the Med.	📉 Extra days at anchor raise costs for owner and charterer when delays hit CPC-linked voyages. 📈 Clearer separation of “clean” and Russian barrels helps charterers build documented, bankable supply chains.
Refinery economics in Turkey	Cheap Urals supported margins, but rising legal and reputational risk plus future EU fuel rules push Turkish refineries to prove slate flexibility.	Plants can switch between Urals, CPC, KEBCO and Basrah, with freight, differentials and sanctions headlines feeding directly into crude choice.	📈 Flexibility creates trading upside and more cargo options for well positioned ships. 📉 If alternatives price up or face bottlenecks, margin gains from leaving Urals fall away.
Med pricing and spreads	Less Turkish demand for Urals can widen its discount, while non Russian sour grades such as CPC and Basrah price closer to benchmarks.	Shifts in grade spreads influence where traders send ships, how often they ballast between basins and which ports become pricing points.	📈 Bigger spreads open arbitrage routes and extra voyages for agile owners. 📉 More volatile differentials increase risk on long fixtures if freight and bunkers move faster than crude prices.
Insurance and bank comfort	A higher share of Kazakh and Iraqi crude generally sits better with Western insurers and banks than heavy reliance on Russian Urals.	Owners with little direct Russian exposure often see smoother renewals and less friction on financing and payments than those active in shadow trades.	📈 Cleaner portfolios can support sharper pricing on cover and capital. 📉 The cost of capital gap between conventional and shadow operators widens, shaping who can profitably chase which routes.
Strategic read for owners and charterers	Turkey’s move shows how a major buyer can rebalance away from Russian barrels while keeping throughput stable, reshaping routes without a formal embargo.	Stakeholders need separate playbooks for compliant Med and Kazakh trades versus higher risk Russian-linked routes, each with different earnings, risk and funding assumptions.	📈 Treating route mix as a portfolio choice can stabilise returns and protect access to finance. 📉 Treating Russian and non Russian barrels as interchangeable without adjusting risk controls leaves P and L and reputations exposed.
Notes: Volumes and patterns reflect late 2025 reporting and tracking data for Turkish crude imports, including Urals, CPC Blend, KEBCO and Iraqi grades. Flows will depend on sanctions enforcement, CPC availability, straits conditions and global demand.

Turkey’s crude pivot in one glance

Turkish refiners are quietly swapping some discounted Russian barrels for Kazakh and Iraqi grades. That keeps plants supplied, reshapes Black Sea and Med routes, and widens the gap between compliant and higher risk tanker trades.

Turkey

From discount hunter to slate manager

Imports move away from a heavy Urals share toward a mix of CPC Blend, KEBCO and Basrah. The aim is to keep margins while avoiding barrels that strain banking, insurance and future fuel rules.

Russia and shadow fleet

Barrels pushed farther afield

Cutbacks from a nearby buyer mean more Urals sailing longer routes to India, China or smaller outlets, often on older tonnage with complex ownership and fewer mainstream services.

Kazakhstan and Iraq

Steadier role in Med supply

CPC and Basrah barrels gain share in Turkey and the wider Med, tying refineries and shipowners more tightly to CPC uptime, straits conditions and Gulf stability.

How a Turkish refinery barrel is changing

Old pattern Urals via Black Sea, short haul

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Transition Blend of Urals, CPC, Basrah

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New pattern CPC and Iraqi grades with smaller Urals slice

📈 Upside levers

More long haul barrels from the Gulf into the Med support tonne miles for Suezmax and VLCC combinations.
CPC and Kazakh flows create repeat business for Aframaxes that are set up for Black Sea and straits routines.
Cleaner crude slates make it easier for mainstream owners to keep insurance and bank relationships on good terms.
Grade and route spreads open arbitrage chains for traders and fleets that can move quickly between basins.

📉 Pressure points

Less short haul Urals trims low risk regional lift for conventional tankers in the Black Sea to Turkey corridor.
Higher reliance on CPC and straits traffic raises exposure to weather, draft and any future security incidents.
Shadow fleet tankers soak up a larger share of Russian flows, deepening the split in earnings and risk profiles.
Refinery margins can be squeezed if alternative sour grades price up or face bottlenecks at key terminals.

Where stakeholders should check their exposure

Owners: share of days on Russian versus Kazakh and Iraqi trades

Charterers: dependence on CPC and straits transit for core supply

Refiners: margin sensitivity to CPC outages and Suez delays

Financiers: portfolio mix between compliant and shadow linked tonnage

Turkey’s step away from some Urals barrels is not a shock event, but it quietly moves money, risk and opportunity around the basin. Mainstream fleets and refiners gain more compliant options in Kazakh and Iraqi grades, at the cost of greater dependence on CPC, the straits and Gulf stability, while Russian barrels slide further into long haul and shadow trades that carry different earnings and scrutiny. For owners, charterers and banks the practical task now is to map how much of their portfolio sits on each side of that divide and adjust route, risk and capital decisions accordingly.

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