Red Sea Lane Back In Play as CMA CGM Tests Suez Return

December 8, 2025

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After almost a year of widespread container diversions around the Cape of Good Hope, CMA CGM is starting to route its INDAMEX service back through the Red Sea and Suez Canal on both headhaul and backhaul legs between India–Pakistan and the US East Coast, according to data and commentary from Xeneta. The first loop using Suez, with CMA CGM Verdi scheduled around mid-January, is a small but visible step toward normalising one of the world’s most important container corridors. For shipowners and cargo interests it raises immediate questions about security risk appetite, sailing days, bunker burn and how quickly other lines may follow if conditions hold.

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Red Sea / Suez return in 30 seconds

CMA CGM is routing its INDAMEX service back through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, with CMA CGM Verdi expected to complete the first full loop via Suez in mid-January. It is a controlled test rather than a full-scale reset, but it puts the shorter route back in play for Asia–Europe and India–US flows after months of longer Cape detours.

Service shift

One major loop leaving the Cape and returning to Suez gives the market a live example of how current security, insurance and schedule planning work on the shorter route.

Cost and time impact

Suez saves roughly one to two weeks of sailing versus Cape diversions, reducing bunker use and ship days per round trip, even after war-risk and security costs are added in.

What stakeholders watch

Carriers, shippers and insurers will track early voyages for any new incidents, schedule slips or pricing changes to judge how quickly other services follow and how stable a Suez return proves to be.

Bottom line: CMA CGM’s move marks the first visible step back toward Suez on a key corridor; whether it becomes the new normal depends on how security, costs and reliability look after the first few loops.

Item	Summary	Business mechanics	Bottom line effect
CMA CGM tests Red Sea return via Suez: Box Trade Impact
First large carrier moves back	CMA CGM is routing its INDAMEX service between India, Pakistan and the US East Coast back through the Red Sea and Suez. The CMA CGM Verdi is due to complete the first full loop via Suez around mid January after months of Cape diversions.	A big name testing Suez again gives the market a live trial run. If the loop is smooth on schedule and security, it becomes a reference point for other mainline Asia and India services still running via the Cape.	📉 Extra days at anchor and at sea stay locked in if everyone remains on the Cape route. 📈 A controlled Suez return shows where time and bunker costs can be cut if risk is judged manageable.
Security backdrop	The shift comes after a long spell of missile, drone and small-boat incidents in the Red Sea and Bab el Mandeb that pushed most liner services around the Cape. Recent weeks show fewer high profile attacks but the corridor is still treated as high risk.	Lines are weighing a shorter leg against residual threat. Selected services with defined routing, speed, timing and security arrangements suggest operators see risk that can be managed, not ignored.	📉 Any new incident on an early return service could force sudden diversions and higher war-risk pricing. 📈 A quiet period strengthens the case for more Suez routings and more predictable cost per teu.
Voyage length and fuel	Suez routing typically saves about one to two weeks of sailing time versus the Cape on long India and Asia links, with a clear drop in bunker use and ship days per round trip.	On an INDAMEX type string that means fewer vessels or more breathing room on speeds while keeping weekly calls. Both options reduce unit fuel cost and ease pressure on chartered-in tonnage.	📉 Cape detours push up fuel spend and tie up hulls, squeezing margins on weaker corridors. 📈 Suez cuts sailing days and fuel per slot, helping either earnings or the ability to sharpen rates.
Capacity and rates	Longer Cape routes soak up effective capacity. A gradual move back to Suez releases capacity without ordering new ships and can ease some of the rate support driven by extended voyages.	Xeneta and other trackers have linked Red Sea disruption to higher spot and altered contract patterns. As transit times normalise, the balance between carrier bargaining power and shipper leverage will start to shift again.	📉 If too much capacity comes back quickly into a flat demand environment, spot rates can soften. 📈 A phased return lets carriers protect load factors while offering customers faster, more stable transit times.
Network and schedules	Suez allows tighter rotations and cleaner hub connections than Cape diversions, which forced many services to tweak port orders, cut offs and transshipment hubs.	Better alignment between mainline calls and feeder windows reduces bunching and gives inland legs more predictable timing, which is critical for retail, auto and other time sensitive cargo.	📉 Long detours drag down schedule reliability and increase the need for blank sailings and ad hoc extra loaders. 📈 More Suez loops support a steadier weekly pattern that is easier to sell and to run.
War risk and surcharges	Suez transits still carry war-risk premiums, security costs and possible routing or speed constraints, but they start from a much shorter voyage than a full Cape swing.	Lines will rework the mix between Cape surcharges and Red Sea related add ons. Insurers will watch the incident count closely when setting prices for hull, cargo and war-risk cover.	📉 Elevated risk ratings keep a floor under war-risk and security cost per transit. 📈 Even with those add ons, Suez can deliver a lower all-in cost per teu than running the Cape if the corridor stays relatively calm.
Competitive signal	A major carrier openly returning one service via Suez puts competitive pressure on rivals still offering longer Cape routings on similar corridors.	History suggests once one or two lines move, others follow if security conditions allow. The timing of each shift will hinge on customer feedback, internal risk views and how early trials perform.	📉 Lines that stay long while others shorten may lag on both service and cost. 📈 Those that time a safe Suez return well can offer faster transits and defend share as the corridor normalises.
Notes: Based on published service details for CMA CGM’s INDAMEX loop and market commentary on a phased return to Suez routes. Actual routing, timing and surcharge structures may change as security conditions and demand evolve.

Suez versus Cape: what CMA CGM’s move signals

A single service returning to the Red Sea and Suez is not a full reset, but it shows that large carriers are again testing the shorter route in real time. Each successful round trip tightens voyage days, bunker use and capacity planning. Any incident pushes the risk needle back the other way.

One loop back via Suez
Market watching what follows

Suez route

Shorter path with layered risk

Restores roughly one to two weeks of sailing time compared with the Cape on long India and Asia links.
Improves schedule symmetry and hub connections for mainline and feeder networks.
Still requires war risk cover, security procedures and close tracking of developments in the Red Sea corridor.

Cape route

Longer but outside current hot zone

Uses more bunker and ship days per round voyage, but avoids the narrowest Red Sea chokepoints.
Helps some shippers feel more comfortable on risk, at the cost of longer transit times.
Can tighten effective capacity on key trades if many lines stay with the longer deviation.

Where the current trial sits on the speed versus risk line

Longer route, lower direct threat Shorter route with active, managed risk

Carriers and shipowners

Balancing cost, risk and network design.

Gain a live benchmark for running a loop via Suez with current security measures and insurance terms.
Can reduce ship days and bunker per teu if more services follow, but must stay ready to revert if risk rises.

Shippers and forwarders

Transit time and reliability back in focus.

Watch early voyages closely to judge whether faster Suez routings become available at scale.
Compare Cape surcharges against any Red Sea related surcharges on services that return to Suez.

Ports, canals and bunkering hubs

Flow patterns can shift again.

Potential for a gradual redistribution of calls and fuel demand from Cape waypoints back toward Suez and Red Sea hubs.
Monitor how quickly volumes on the first returning services build and whether other loops follow the same path.

What a successful return supports

If early Suez loops run smoothly.

Shorter and more predictable transit times on corridors that have been stretched since diversions began.
Lower voyage costs per slot once war risk and security are averaged against reduced distance and fuel.
Clearer planning horizons for network design, allowing carriers to trim emergency blank sailings and ad hoc extra loaders.

Where risk and cost could rise again

If security conditions deteriorate.

A new wave of attacks or close calls would quickly trigger fresh diversions, adding days and fuel back into the system.
War risk and insurance premia could move higher just as more services had begun to rely on the shorter leg.
Schedules and contract terms might need another round of adjustments if the corridor swings back into disruption.

How the picture could look over the next year

Indicative views, not forecasts

Short term Selective Suez use A limited number of services on specific trades use Suez with tight security measures while others stay via the Cape, giving shippers a choice between faster and longer routings.

Medium term Gradual normalisation If the corridor stays relatively calm, more loops move back over time, and Red Sea routing becomes the default again with Cape detours reserved for specific risk events.

Stress scenario Stop-start pattern Any renewed spike in incidents would bring a stop-go cycle of returns and diversions, which keeps both costs and schedule planning volatile for carriers and cargo owners.

CMA CGM’s decision to run an India–US loop back through the Red Sea gives the market its first clear test of Suez routing under current conditions. For now it is a controlled move rather than a wholesale shift, but it puts shorter voyages and lower fuel use back on the table for one of the world’s key corridors. The way other carriers respond and whether the security picture stays stable, will determine if this is remembered as an early sign of a broader return to Suez, or a brief experiment in a lane that remains tightly linked to regional risk.

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