HomeMaersk Stays Cautious on Suez Return as Red Sea Risks Linger

Maersk Stays Cautious on Suez Return as Red Sea Risks Linger

November 26, 2025

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Maersk says it will resume using the Red Sea and Suez route only when conditions allow and has not set a firm date, despite signals from Egypt’s Suez Canal Authority about an early-December partial comeback. That leaves many Asia–Europe strings on longer Cape of Good Hope routings, keeping fuel bills high and schedules tight until security and insurance costs clearly improve.

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Maersk has not set a firm date to fully return via the Suez Canal. Networks still lean on detours through the Cape, which lengthen voyages, raise fuel use, and keep insurance steps in place. A phased comeback would reduce costs and free capacity, but until risk clearly eases, schedules and rates will remain less predictable.

📍 Status check
No fixed restart date. Limited trials possible, but operating plans continue to assume caution around the Red Sea.
⏱️ Cost and time
Detours add days and bunker burn; war-risk and security surcharges persist. A stable safety window would trim both quickly.
📦 Capacity and rates
Longer round trips reduce effective weekly sailings, tightening supply and keeping rate swings elevated on Asia–Europe and linked trades.
🔎 Signals
Incident flow, underwriter guidance, carrier advisories, canal throughput data, and bunker demand will flag a durable shift back to Suez.
Bottom line: Detours stay in the base case. Costs and reliability improve only when a clear and lasting safety window supports a full Suez return.
Maersk keeps Suez return on hold: Industry Impact
Item Summary Business Mechanics Bottom-Line Effect
Status & timeline Maersk says it will “take steps to resume” when safe but has no specific timing. The Suez Canal Authority indicated early-December partial transits, yet the carrier has not confirmed dates. Crew safety remains the priority. Network planning holds Cape routings in the base case while monitoring security, insurance, and corridor coordination. 📉 Prolonged uncertainty keeps detour costs elevated; 📈 sudden greenlight could tighten capacity short-term during re-routing.
Detour cost & fuel Cape of Good Hope re-routes have lifted global bunker demand; analysis estimated ~100,000 bpd extra fuel oil consumption while detours persisted. Longer distances increase voyage days and fuel uplift; any gradual Suez return reduces burn and frees vessel days. 📉 Higher OPEX while detouring; 📈 margin relief when normal routing resumes.
Insurance & risk posture War-risk premia and security protocols rose during attacks; carriers signal caution and a staged approach to any return. Voyage quotes factor higher premia, armed guards where applicable, and buffers for inspections and delays. 📉 Added per-voyage cost and time; 📈 potential easing if premiums retreat with sustained calm.
Capacity & rates With ships tied up on longer rotations, effective capacity shrinks and schedules remain tight, supporting rate volatility until routings normalize. Longer round trips reduce weekly sailings; blankings and sliding ETAs ripple across terminals and inland flows. 📈 Spot swings persist; contract discussions may add risk premiums.
Carrier & canal messaging SCA has promoted a partial December resumption; Maersk and partners emphasise no firm timeline and safety-led gating. Customers receive corridor updates and contingency advisories; planners keep both Cape and Suez options ready. 📈 Flexibility for operators; 📉 continued planning complexity for shippers and NVOs.
Triggers to watch Sustained drop in incidents, insurance softening, and aligned carrier statements would signal a durable return; any fresh attack resets caution. Port windows and rail slots are rebased as routing decisions shift; inland congestion risk rises during transitions. 📈 Stable routing helps restore schedule reliability; 📉 reversals prolong costs and variability.
Notes: Sources include Maersk updates on Nov 26, 2025, Suez Canal Authority comments on a partial December resumption, and recent reporting on detour fuel exposure and carrier timelines. Effects vary by service, speed policy, and insurance terms.
Route Scenarios Shaping Near-Term Costs

Full return via Suez

Transit normalizes on main East-West services. Sailing days and bunkers step down. War-risk lines fade when underwriters ease cover loadings.

Partial return

Select strings re-enter while premium loops stay on the Cape. Capacity stays uneven and rates remain choppy on affected corridors.

Status quo detours

Cape routings persist. Extra days and fuel support freight but lift operating costs. Schedule buffers remain in weekly plans.

Re-escalation

New incidents stall any comeback. War-risk premia rise and more carriers re-route, adding time and bunker burn across networks.

Lane Pressure Snapshot
Asia to Europehigh tension
Detour days keep schedules tight; yield sensitive to return pace and risk pricing.
Transpacificmedium
Less dependent on Suez, but global box imbalances and vessel rotations spill over.
Intra-Asia and feedermedium
Feeder connections reflect mother-ship reliability. Port windows move with network changes.
Bars are qualitative gauges for planning context.
Quick Voyage Cost Check
Extra bunker cost
$0
War-risk cost (voyage)
$0
Total delta per voyage
$0
Indicative cost per TEU
$0
Signals To Watch
📄 Carrier statements
  • Public guidance on routing and timetable restoration cadence.
  • Language around crew safety and insurance conditions.
🛡️ Insurance posture
  • War-risk rates quoted by leading underwriters.
  • Scope of exclusions and required escorts or guards.
⛽ Bunker pull
  • Fuel demand shifts that reflect detour persistence or unwind.
  • IFO/MGO spreads at bunkering hubs.
🧭 Canal traffic
  • Daily transit counts and waiting times published by canal authorities.
  • Any restrictions that change slot certainty.
Notes: Inputs reflect planning placeholders. War-risk line here is a simple single-voyage proxy and not binding insurance advice.

Maersk has publicly said it will resume Red Sea and Suez transits when conditions allow, but it has not set a firm date. Canal officials and some trade outlets suggested an early-December partial restart, which Maersk has not confirmed. Detours have increased global bunker demand and kept war-risk loads elevated; any return will likely be gradual, with network and insurance constraints easing in steps rather than all at once. Longer routings have added meaningful fuel consumption, with analysts estimating roughly +100,000 barrels per day of extra bunker demand at times this year; insurance surcharges on Red Sea passages spiked to around 0.7%–1% of hull value during heightened risk. A durable easing could remove some of these costs, but operators are expected to phase changes carefully.

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