Global Trade Passes the 35 trillion dollar mark, with most of the value still moving by sea

December 10, 2025

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Global trade in goods and services is on track to exceed 35 trillion dollars in 2025, around 7 percent higher than 2024 according to UNCTAD’s latest Global Trade Update. This new high comes even as maritime trade growth in tonnage terms starts to flatten, with more value moving on longer, more complex routes that reflect geopolitical tensions and changing demand. For shipowners, that means record value flowing across oceans, but on trade lanes that are more uneven, more regional and more exposed to disruption and cost swings than in earlier cycles.

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Global trade hits a new record, with most of the value still moving by sea

UNCTAD now expects global trade in goods and services to exceed 35 trillion dollars in 2025, around 7 percent higher than 2024. Most of that value still rides on ships, but the growth is uneven and more dependent on specific regions and corridors than in past cycles.

Trade backdrop: Around 2.2 trillion dollars of extra trade is added this year, with roughly 1.5 trillion dollars from goods and about 750 billion dollars from services as manufacturing and electronics stay strong.
Regional drivers: East Asia exports, Africa imports and South South flows grow faster than the global average, while developed market lanes see more mixed and policy driven patterns.
Shipping exposure: More than 70 percent of this record trade by value remains tied to seaborne routes. Diversions around the Red Sea and shifts in sourcing lift tonne days even when cargo volumes grow only modestly.
Risk and outlook: UNCTAD flags a softer outlook for 2026 as higher costs, debt and policy uncertainty build. Owners face a backdrop where trade value is high, but route choice, fuel strategy and regulatory fit drive who captures the earnings.

Bottom line: A 35 trillion dollar trade world is positive for long term shipping demand, yet the benefit is not automatic. The biggest upsides sit with fleets positioned on the fastest growing corridors and compliant with tightening rules, while exposure to weaker or politically stressed trades can dilute the headline boost.

Item	Summary	Business Mechanics	Bottom-Line Effect
Global Trade Tops $35 Trillion: Owner P&L Signals
Record 35 trillion dollar trade value	UNCTAD projects global trade in goods and services to exceed 35 trillion dollars in 2025, about 2.2 trillion dollars or 7 percent above 2024 levels, with goods and services both contributing to the rise.	Higher nominal trade reflects a mix of volume, inflation, freight and insurance costs, and more services tied to moving and financing cargo, rather than pure cargo growth alone.	📈 Strong macro trade value supports long term demand for shipping services, even if physical volume growth is modest.
How much runs by sea	UNCTAD and industry data indicate that over 80 percent of world trade by volume and more than 70 percent by value move by sea, so a large share of the 35 trillion dollar figure is exposed to maritime routes and costs.	Even if tonnage growth slows, the value of cargo on each sailing rises with higher unit prices, longer voyages, energy costs and embedded logistics and insurance services.	📈 More value per voyage increases the economic importance of reliable shipping, but 📉 also raises liability and risk concentration when disruptions occur.
Seaborne volume vs ton-mile picture	UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport 2025 points to seaborne trade volume growth of around 0.5 percent for 2025 after a modest 2.2 percent in 2024, but stresses longer routes and rising ton-miles driven by conflicts and canal constraints.	Red Sea diversions, Panama constraints and rerouted energy flows add sailing days even when the number of loaded sailings changes only slightly, lifting tonne day demand relative to simple volume.	📈 Longer average voyage lengths support fleet utilization and freight over time, but 📉 also increase fuel burn and operating cost per cargo unit.
Regional trade reshuffle	Growth is concentrated in Asia linked trades, South South routes and energy and commodity flows that avoid some tariff and sanctions friction, while traditional Europe United States lanes see more volatility.	Cargo sourcing and destination shifts change which hubs, corridors and vessel classes are busiest, and move some demand from established mainlines into regional and feeder, or alternative long haul routes.	📈 Owners well positioned on growth corridors gain higher utilization and better fixture terms, 📉 while ships tied to slower or shrinking lanes face weaker earnings and repositioning cost.
Segment demand signals	Container flows benefit from resilient consumer and manufactured trade, bulk from food, coal and ore movements, and tankers from redirected crude, products and LNG, although each segment faces its own cyclical corrections.	Orderbooks, congestion patterns and regulatory pressure interact with demand. Segments with moderate supply growth and exposure to longer voyages translate trade value into stronger earnings more efficiently.	📈 Healthy trade value and selected ton-mile growth support rate floors in tighter segments, but 📉 oversupplied fleets or weak sub trades still see margin pressure.
Asset values and ordering	A record trade backdrop feeds confidence in multi year demand, but owners balance that against slower volume forecasts, a heavy orderbook in some sectors and fuel technology uncertainty.	Stronger cash flows and macro trade headlines can push secondhand prices and support newbuilding quotes, while banks and lessors use the 35 trillion dollar story to justify exposure, subject to route and regulatory risk.	📈 Positive sentiment supports asset values and refinancing terms, yet 📉 mistimed ordering on the back of macro optimism can compress returns if growth underperforms.
Cost base and volatility	UNCTAD warns that the record trade value sits alongside fragile growth, higher logistics costs and more frequent disruptions, which translate into more variable freight and insurance pricing.	Supply chain shocks, climate impacts on ports and canals, and regional conflicts can turn quickly into surcharges, waiting time, rerouting and higher capital costs as lenders and underwriters reprice risk.	📈 Volatility can lift earnings for flexible and well hedged owners, but 📉 raises downside risk for highly leveraged or route dependent fleets.
Seaborne outlook behind the headline	UNCTAD’s maritime outlook points to low single digit average growth in seaborne volumes through the second half of the decade, with more emphasis on corridor resilience, decarbonisation cost and logistics efficiency than on raw tonnage expansion.	That implies a market where fleet mix, fuel strategy and route selection matter as much as size, and where trade value can rise even if physical growth is modest or uneven across regions and segments.	📈 Owners that align fleets with resilient trades and new regulatory requirements can convert record trade value into stable earnings, while 📉 ships mismatched to routes or rules risk value erosion even in a 35 trillion dollar world.
Notes: Trade value figures reflect UN Trade And Development global trade updates for 2025. Seaborne growth and outlook references draw on UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2024 and 2025 and related public summaries. Actual exposure varies by trade lane, segment and contract structure.

Record 2025 nowcast

> 35 trillion USD

Around 7 percent growth versus 2024 in combined goods and services trade.

Goods vs services

+1.5T / +0.75T

Goods add about 1.5 trillion dollars. Services contribute roughly 750 billion dollars with faster percentage growth.

Regional engines

Asia & Africa lead

East Asia export growth, stronger Africa imports and resilient South South trade drive much of the increase.

Asia centered flows

Electronics and manufacturing pull in tonnage

East Asia exports up solidly with intra regional trade growth outpacing the global average.
Electronics volumes expand on AI linked demand, keeping high value container slots in focus.
China imports lag some peers, but regional supply chains still concentrate around Asian hubs.

Africa, South South and commodities

More demand from developing regions

Africa import growth and improved exports support bulk and container flows on north south routes.
South South trade grows faster than the global average, lifting demand for tonnage on non traditional corridors.
Iron and steel trade rises sharply while overall resource trade stays sensitive to fuel prices.

Developed markets and fragmentation

High volumes with changing partners

United States imports remain firm while the overall deficit narrows compared with last year.
Europe posts moderate growth with some shift in sourcing as nearshoring and friendshoring gain ground.
More trade is routed through a smaller set of large economies, reinforcing hub port importance.

Tailwinds for shipping volumes

📈 Trade value at a new record level

📈 Volume driven growth as goods prices cool

📈 Manufacturing and electronics up strongly

📈 South South and Africa demand rising

Headwinds and pressure points

📉 Growth momentum expected to soften in 2026

📉 Trade imbalances stay large and persistent

📉 Higher trade costs and finance constraints

📉 More political and geographic concentration of flows

Radar point	Near term backdrop	Medium term signal
Fleet ordering and yards Capacity pipeline	Record trade supports current orderbooks in containers, LNG and some tanker segments, while dry bulk ordering stays more cautious.	If trade holds near this level, slots at key Asian yards remain tight and pricing power stays with builders for efficient, low carbon designs.
Asset values S&P and resale	Strong global flows underpin secondhand values for modern eco ships, especially where forward supply is thin.	Persistent high trade with more regionalisation favors flexible, mid age fleets that can shift between lanes as sourcing patterns move.
Charter markets Rates and terms	Boxship and bulk chartering still reacts to regional congestion and chokepoints, but the overall cargo base is larger than in pre pandemic years.	As friendshoring and nearshoring deepen, charter demand may tilt toward ships suited for shorter regional loops instead of only long mainline hauls.

Global trade moving above 35 trillion dollars puts shipping on a larger demand foundation, but the details show a more complex picture than a single headline number. East Asia, Africa and South South trade are doing much of the heavy lifting, while trade imbalances, higher costs and more politically shaped flows keep risk elevated for shipowners and charterers planning vessels, routes and contracts into the next cycle.

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