Dry Bulk After Geneva: How 2026 Trade Flows Could Shift for Coal, Iron Ore and Agri

Coal is still dry bulk's second largest commodity by seaborne volumes, with shipments around the 1.3 billion tonne mark in 2024 and split mainly between thermal and coking cargoes. But after Geneva Dry, the consensus is that coal is moving from reliable volume driver to wildcard, with flat global demand, shrinking trade and more volatile regional flows through 2026.

🔍 Changes After Geneva

Geneva Dry 2025 framed coal within a broader transition story. The tone was not that coal disappears, but that it becomes more policy and weather driven and less of an automatic growth engine. Conference discussions highlighted three main shifts visible in data and forward views:

• Global coal trade has likely passed its easy growth phase. Several analysts now expect a modest contraction in seaborne coal between 2025 and 2027 as power systems lean harder on renewables and nuclear in key importing regions.
• China and India increasingly rely on domestic mining for baseline supply, using imports more tactically. That mix keeps import demand sensitive to price and hydro or weather swings rather than purely to GDP growth.
• New mining projects and commodity competition are reshaping vessel deployment. Bauxite and other minor bulks are taking Capesize days that used to be filled by coal, pushing more coal down into Panamax and Supramax parcels.

📈 Coal Demand And Trade Into 2026

Forecasts presented around Geneva and in recent market outlooks point to global coal consumption staying near record highs in 2025 and then slipping slightly below 2024 levels in 2026. The key driver is power sector fuel switching. Rapid growth in renewable generation, combined with softer industrial activity in parts of Asia and declining coal use in Europe, is capping demand growth even as security of supply remains a concern.

On the seaborne side, several houses see total coal shipments falling by low single digit percentages in 2025 and again in 2026. The main mechanics are:

• Domestic mining growth in China and India trimming import needs, especially on shorter haul trades.
• Weather and hydro conditions nudging imports up or down seasonally, but on top of a flatter underlying trend.
• Continued structural decline in European coal fired generation, cutting Atlantic basin import demand.

🧭 Coal Trade Flows 2025 - 2026

⚓ Implications For Dry Bulk Strategy

For owners, a shrinking coal pie does not automatically mean a weaker freight market, but it changes which ships work where. Capes may see more competition between coal and bauxite or iron ore for employment, while Panamax and Supramax vessels remain tightly linked to regional coal and grain flows.

For charterers and traders, the key is volatility. Coal is likely to stay in the system as a balancing fuel, with demand surging when weather, hydro, or policy lines up. That creates short windows of strong freight demand on specific routes rather than a smooth uptrend in global volumes.

Iron ore remains the backbone of dry bulk, accounting for well over one and a half billion tonnes of seaborne trade and the majority of Capesize employment. Geneva Dry framed the next 18 to 24 months as a balancing act. Demand from Asian steel mills is still firm enough to keep volumes growing modestly, but new supply from West Africa, questions around Chinese steel growth and a flatter price outlook are all shifting where tonnes load and how far they sail.

🔍 Changes After Geneva For Iron Ore

Geneva Dry sessions on iron ore underlined that the market is no longer just an Australia to China story. The focus has shifted to how new Atlantic supply, maturing Chinese steel demand and vessel design choices interact. Several themes stood out in the 2025 discussions and recent research.

• West Africa is moving from theoretical to real. Simandou in Guinea is expected to start exports around the end of 2025 and ramp toward roughly 120 million tonnes a year once fully on line, making it one of the largest iron ore mines globally and adding a very long haul route into China and other Asian buyers.
• Chinese steel demand growth looks close to its peak, but imports remain high. Record or near record import months in 2025 show that even with flatter steel output, Chinese mills still rely heavily on seaborne high grade ore to manage costs and emissions.
• Analysts expect some reshuffling of supply shares. Medium term views point to lower domestic Chinese ore output, steady to slightly lower Australian exports later in the decade and more tonnes from Brazil and West Africa, with the overall seaborne pool remaining large.
• The shift from classic Capesize to Newcastlemax tonnage is becoming more evident. Geneva panels highlighted owners ordering larger ships within port constraints to improve unit costs, reinforcing the link between iron ore flows and specific ship sizes.

📈 Iron Ore Demand And Trade Into 2026

Broad market outlooks from UN trade bodies and major brokers keep iron ore in the growth camp, even as total maritime trade growth slows. Major bulks such as iron ore are still expected to underpin seaborne trade through the middle of the decade, with iron ore trade growing modestly in tonnes and slightly faster in tonne miles as average voyage lengths increase.

On the demand side, Asia remains dominant. China alone accounts for the majority of seaborne iron ore imports, with the rest of North East Asia and emerging steel producers in South and South East Asia adding incremental volume. At the same time, scrap usage, electric arc furnace growth and decarbonisation targets are gradually limiting upside in total blast furnace demand, particularly in mature markets.

Price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 cluster in a relatively narrow band. Banks and ratings agencies see average prices in the high double digits per tonne, a step down from earlier peaks but still well above the cash cost of most established producers. That profile is consistent with a market where supply projects such as Simandou and Brazilian expansions add capacity into a world of slower steel demand growth.

🧭 Iron Ore Trade Flows 2025 - 2026

⚓ Implications For Dry Bulk Strategy

For owners, iron ore still sets the tone for the Cape and Newcastlemax market. The combination of steady Asian demand, longer average hauls and new West African supply is supportive for tonne miles, even if overall steel demand grows more slowly. At the same time, a heavy newbuilding pipeline means that ship supply will matter just as much as trade growth when assessing earnings potential.

For charterers and traders, the key questions into 2026 are how quickly new mines ramp, how sticky Chinese import demand proves to be at near record levels and how much competition emerges between Brazilian, Australian and West African tonnes. Those answers will shape not only freight rates, but also preferred loading regions and ship sizes for the next phase of the iron ore cycle.

Agricultural bulk is the most defensive leg of the dry bulk triangle. Wheat, corn, soybeans and other grains and oilseeds now account for well over half a billion tonnes of seaborne trade a year, with tonne miles underpinned by long haul routes from the Americas and Black Sea into Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Geneva Dry discussions and recent forecasts point to more growth in 2025 and 2026, but also more volatility as weather, geopolitics and trade policy pull flows in different directions.

🔍 Changes After Geneva For Agri Bulks

Geneva Dry 2025 framed agri bulk as the segment where growth is still visible, but where risk has shifted from pure demand to logistics and origin choices. Market commentary and recent data highlighted several structural changes that will matter for 2026 voyage planning:

• Global grains and oilseeds supply is moving into a high output phase. Forecasts for 2025/26 point to record wheat and maize crops and new highs in soybean production, with total grains output above 2.4 billion tonnes. That combination keeps export availability strong but also caps price driven demand surges.
• Brazil has become the clear anchor for soybeans and an increasingly important corn exporter. Record Brazilian soy shipments in 2025, with the majority moving to China, are reshaping trade shares and supporting very long haul Panamax and Supramax employment.
• The United States remains a core supplier but faces more competition. USDA forecasts still show large US corn and wheat export programs into 2025/26, yet Chinese buying has shifted part of its book from US Gulf to Brazil and Argentina, changing load port and timing patterns.
• The Black Sea grain story remains unsettled. Russia has expanded its role as a top wheat exporter, while Ukraine relies more on a mix of Black Sea and Danube routes under a fragile security and corridor regime. That creates routing uncertainty and occasional port congestion in the region.
• Demand growth is coming from a broader base of importers. Rather than a few dominant buyers, a wider mix of Asian, Middle Eastern and African markets is absorbing incremental grain and oilseed flows, spreading tonne mile demand across more routes.

📈 Agri Bulk Demand And Trade Into 2026

Most grains and oilseeds outlooks now show a similar pattern. World production of wheat and coarse grains is projected at fresh records in 2025/26, while global grain trade creeps higher after a strong 2024. The overall picture is one of modest but broad based demand growth that keeps seaborne volumes on an upward path.

On the demand side, population growth, urbanisation and dietary change in Asia, the Middle East and Africa continue to drive underlying consumption higher. At the same time, feed demand for livestock and poultry remains sensitive to income growth, while biofuel policies in several regions keep a baseline floor under maize and vegetable oil consumption.

The main uncertainty is not whether the world needs the grain, but which origin supplies it and through which route. Weather shocks, river levels, export taxes, sanctions and tariff disputes have all triggered sudden shifts in flows over the past few seasons. Looking into 2026, the baseline expectation is for seaborne grain and oilseed volumes to grow slowly, with tonne miles supported by a larger share of long haul Americas to Asia and Black Sea to Asia and Africa shipments.

🧭 Agri Trade Flows 2025 - 2026

⚓ Implications For Dry Bulk Strategy

For owners, agri bulk remains a core utilisation engine for the mid sized fleet. The mix of stable baseline demand, record crops and longer haul routes from Brazil and the US Gulf into Asia and Africa is broadly supportive for tonne miles, even if individual seasons are shaped by weather and policy headlines.

For charterers and traders, the focus into 2026 shifts to origin risk and corridor reliability. The same cargo can load from different regions depending on price and policy, so freight planning now needs more scenario work around Black Sea corridors, South American export logistics and the balance between US and Brazilian supply into China and other key buyers.