HomeShip RecyclingDeadweight Economics: What It Really Costs to Scrap a Ship in 2026
Deadweight Economics: What It Really Costs to Scrap a Ship in 2026
December 19, 2025
Scrap value is the part of shipping nobody budgets for in public, but everyone cares about in private. Heading into 2026, “what you get paid” to recycle a ship is being pulled in two directions at once: weaker steel and currency pressure in key recycling countries, and tighter environmental and compliance rules that can limit where you can sell, who can buy, and how long the process takes.
⏱️ 2-minute summary: what it really costs to scrap a ship in 2026▶
Use this as a briefing sheet. Each row shows the main driver, what it does to the invoice, and what owners typically do next.
#
Topic
What actually drives cost or proceeds
Owner playbook in plain terms
1️⃣
Headline scrap price (USD per LDT)
Regional bid spread comes from local steel resale, FX vs USD, yard capacity, and the bidder pool that is actually allowed to buy.
Compare bids as “net to owner” and do not assume the top region stays top if deliveries spike or currency moves.
2️⃣
Sale basis is a hidden lever
“As is” vs “delivered” decides who pays deviation, bunkers, port services, inspections, and readiness steps.
Build two models fast. One where you deliver and one where the buyer takes where is. Pick the higher net result.
3️⃣
Owner side cost lines
Commission, legal and closing, class and flag steps, gas free and hot work readiness, waste handling, and time loss.
Treat these as a checklist, not a surprise. Itemize them so the board sees where the net number goes.
4️⃣
Steel market is the engine
Plate and rebar direction, imported scrap benchmarks, FX moves, and how full the waterfront is.
If local steel is soft plus FX is weak plus yards are busy, expect bids to drift down. Timing matters.
5️⃣
Ship type changes the timing
The scrap decision clusters around special surveys and drydock capex. Earnings strength can delay scrapping even for old ships.
Use survey dates as the decision window. If a big repair is due, compare that spend to a realistic year of forward earnings.
6️⃣
Green vs traditional routes
Compliant recycling usually means fewer eligible yards, more paperwork, stronger waste controls, and sometimes lower headline bids.
Decide early if compliance is mandatory or strategic. Do not wait until the last month to start documents.
7️⃣
Regulatory pressure stack
Carbon performance requirements, regional carbon cost, and end of life documentation can stack on top of survey capex.
When compliance turns an older ship into a project, scrapping can be the lowest risk way to stop margin leakage.
8️⃣
2026 forecast in one line
Steel and FX set the bid. Carbon and compliance set the urgency. Waterfront congestion sets the timing pain.
Owners who prepare documents early can sell when the bid is decent instead of when the deadline forces a weak deal.
Bottom line: in 2026, the scrap decision is rarely about age alone. It is about net proceeds after real costs, plus whether steel, carbon, and compliance make the next year worth funding.
Ship recycling prices are typically quoted in USD per light displacement ton (LDT) and can move week to week based on local steel prices, FX, yard capacity, credit availability, and which buyer pool is allowed to participate (especially for compliant recycling). The ranges below reflect late-2025 market indications that owners are using as a baseline going into 2026.
Average Ship Recycling Price Levels by Region
Ranges reflect commonly quoted “indication” levels for Bulkers (dry), Tankers (wet), and Containers in major hubs.
Region
Bulker (Dry)
Tanker (Wet)
Container
2026 signal and what drives the spread
🇧🇩 Bangladesh (Chattogram)
385–410
420–430
430–440
Often tops the board when appetite is strong, but pricing can cool quickly after multiple large deliveries.
Compliance upgrades are expanding, which can change who can buy and at what margin.
🇵🇰 Pakistan (Gadani)
390–400
400–420
415–430
Can price competitively, but transaction flow is highly sensitive to local steel resale and financing conditions.
HKC-related yard approvals are a key swing factor for 2026 volumes and buyer participation.
🇮🇳 India (Alang)
370–380
385–400
400–410
Often the “steady” option, but bids are pressured when plate prices soften and USD strength hits local currencies.
Owners watch India as a floor for subcontinent pricing when others cool off.
🇹🇷 Turkey (Aliaga)
260–270
270–280
280–290
Lower offers reflect different steel economics and higher compliance cost structure.
A common choice for regional trading patterns and certain compliance-driven recycling routes.
🇨🇳 China (restricted activity)
Limited
Limited
Limited
Not a major open-market destination for international end-of-life tonnage.
Impact on global pricing is indirect through steel demand and regional trade flows.
Notes: These are indicative levels and can vary by vessel condition, fuel residues, delivery terms, and buyer pool.
“Green / compliant” routing can narrow bidders, which may affect net proceeds and timeline even when headline prices look similar.
🧾 Cost Breakdown for Shipowners
Scrap price headlines (USD per LDT) are only the starting point. What shipowners actually care about is the net number after sale basis, compliance, port services, documentation, and any environmental or hazardous waste handling requirements that come with the chosen recycling option, especially as the Hong Kong Convention (HKC) IHM requirement is in force heading into 2026.
ShipUniverse: Owner-side scrapping cost lines to budget (2026)
Think “net proceeds,” not just USD/LDT. These are the line-items that typically move the final number.
Cost line
Typical pricing format
What drives it up or down
Owner playbook note
1) Sale basis choice (big hidden lever)
“As-is / where-is” vs “Delivered”
Who pays the repositioning voyage, port services, and pre-delivery readiness depends on the contract basis.
Delivered sales can also simplify closing steps versus a sale that requires the ship to move under a new “trading” setup.
Build two net models. One assuming the buyer pays delivery (as-is), one assuming you do (delivered),
then compare “net-to-owner” instead of headline USD/LDT.
2) Broker / cash-buyer commission
Often ~1% of sale value (typical market convention)
Higher if multi-party closing, complex basis terms, or hard-to-place tonnage.
Lower when owners sell repeatedly through the same channel.
Treat it like a “transaction tax” on the gross scrap proceeds.
Ask early if the quoted price is “net to owner” or “subject to commission.”
3) HKC IHM documentation and certificates
Mix of survey, admin fees, and certificate charges
HKC requires ships >500 GT to maintain an Inventory of Hazardous Materials (IHM).
Flags and RO processes differ, plus timing matters if you are rushing a closing window.
Budget both the work and the paperwork. Example fee schedules exist in some flag guidance
(certificate issuance fees can be itemized separately from survey work).
4) Gas-free inspection / hot-work readiness (port and service dependent)
Port tariff + service provider charges
Size and compartment count, time on site, and local rules. Example: Singapore publishes
gas-free inspection fees by GT band.
If your recycling plan expects tank entry or hot work preparation before handover,
confirm the exact port tariff and whether repeat inspections can trigger additional charges.
5) Waste handling and environmental compliance premium (not always visible in “price”)
Hazardous waste rules, downstream disposal costs, and whether steel is reused locally
(higher yard compliance can mean lower yard bid prices).
One industry analysis highlights Turkey cost adders versus South Asia.
If you must use an EU-listed style pathway, model the compliance premium explicitly
so the board sees why “green” can mean a lower gross bid.
6) “Green yard” price gap (opportunity cost)
Often shows up as lower USD/LDT offers
Higher labor and disposal costs, plus different steel value capture methods in compliant markets,
can reduce what yards can pay per LDT compared with South Asia.
If you have policy or charterer pressure to “go green,” document the delta as a deliberate choice
(reputation, compliance, access to certain cargo or finance), not a bad commercial outcome.
7) Delivery voyage costs (only if you are paying them)
Fuel + time + port services (calculated)
Distance to recycling region, bunker price, routing constraints, crew costs, and insurance implications.
Use a simple build-up: (sea days × daily burn × bunker price) + port/agency + safety services.
This is where “delivered” deals can surprise owners who only modeled USD/LDT.
8) Closing documents and releases
Legal/admin costs (varies by flag and financing)
Mortgage releases, deletion paperwork, class/status steps, and any lender requirements.
Some sale structures reduce re-registration complexity compared with a transfer for further trading.
Pull your “closing checklist” forward. The cheapest surprises are the ones you avoid by aligning
bank, flag, and broker expectations early.
Practical takeaway: owners who win the scrap math usually do two things well:
(1) they lock the correct sale basis, and (2) they itemize the compliance and service costs that
can quietly erase a strong USD/LDT headline.
🔩 Steel Market Influence
Ship recycling is a steel trade wearing a shipping jacket. Yards price ships off what they can realistically earn selling re-rolled plate, rebar, and scrap into local mills, adjusted for currency moves, import scrap competition, and how busy the waterfront is. When steel demand cools or local prices slide, scrap bids usually follow within weeks. When mills restock and imported scrap tightens, bids can rebound quickly.
Steel signals that move ship scrap bids (baseline into 2026)
These are the steel-side levers owners should watch because they tend to show up in USD/LDT bids fast.
Steel-side indicator
Where it shows up first
How it moves bids (mechanism)
Owner takeaway
Local steel plate and rebar direction
🇧🇩 Bangladesh and 🇵🇰 Pakistan (re-rolling demand sensitive)
When plate/rebar softens, yards earn less on resale, so they trim USD/LDT offers or get more selective on which ships they buy.
In late-2025 reporting, Bangladesh plate and scrap prices were described as weakening, pressuring recycler pricing.
If local plate/rebar is sliding, treat “top-of-market” LDT quotes as fragile unless waterfront supply is extremely tight.
Imported scrap benchmarks (HMS / shredded)
🇹🇷 Turkey and India’s import parity
Turkey is a heavy imported-scrap market. When imported scrap prices lift, mills can pay more for ship scrap and recyclers can raise bids.
A December 2025 report notes imported scrap up roughly USD 5–6/MT in Turkey with ship recycler offers improving.
If CFR Turkey scrap is rising, Turkey can “pull” compliant-tonnage bids upward even if South Asia is flat.
Currency versus USD (FX stress)
🇧🇩 BDT, 🇵🇰 PKR, 🇮🇳 INR, 🇹🇷 TRY
Ship recycling prices are quoted in USD, but steel resale is often local-currency based. When currencies weaken, recyclers’ USD buying power drops,
and bids can fall even if local steel prices are unchanged. GMS highlighted Bangladesh currency strain alongside softer plate pricing.
In FX volatility, owners should lock basis terms tightly (what’s included, payment timing) because quote-to-closing slippage can rise.
Local mill appetite and waterfront congestion
🇧🇩 Chattogram, 🇮🇳 Alang, 🇵🇰 Gadani
When multiple large ships deliver close together, local buyers can turn cautious, and bids soften until inventory clears.
Market commentary in late 2025 describes Bangladesh being busy with deliveries and prices suffering after the burst.
Timing is money: selling into a “full beach” often costs more than the difference between two regions on paper.
Scrap-based steel strategy (EAF pull)
Regional demand for scrap steel (Asia focus)
As mills lean more into scrap inputs to cut emissions, underlying scrap demand can firm up.
A December 2025 market outlook notes ship recycling as a meaningful scrap source and points to ambitions to shift steel production toward scrap-based routes.
When scrap demand is structurally supported, the “floor” under LDT prices can be stronger during down cycles.
China steel output and iron ore direction (macro drag or lift)
Global steel sentiment (spills into Asia pricing)
China is a global tone-setter. Reuters reported China’s steel output falling year-on-year in late 2025 amid weak demand,
while the World Bank projects broader commodity prices to soften further into 2026 and highlights iron ore price declines in its outlook.
If China stays weak, steel rallies can be harder to sustain, and recyclers may resist paying “peak” bids for long.
2026 demand outlook for steel (support level)
Global demand baseline
Worldsteel’s short-range outlook points to global steel demand being roughly flat in 2025 and modestly higher in 2026,
which matters because it affects mills’ willingness to restock scrap and pay up for feedstock.
When demand is expected to improve, recyclers can hold bids steadier between seasonal slowdowns.
Practical rule: if you see (1) local plate/rebar falling, (2) FX weakening, and (3) heavy waterfront deliveries, expect LDT bids to soften.
If (1) imported scrap benchmarks rise, and (2) mills restock, bids can firm even without a big change in shipping markets.
🛳️ Ship Types and Scrap Timing
Scrapping is rarely “just age.” It is usually a collision between (1) the next expensive survey or drydock, (2) a vessel’s earning power versus newer tonnage, and (3) compliance pressure that makes slow steaming, retrofits, or charter restrictions more painful. Going into 2026, the timing conversation is getting sharper because older ships are hanging on longer in some segments, while efficiency rules and big delivery waves are starting to stack up behind them.
Ship types and the “right moment” to scrap
Use this as a timing map: what typically pushes each ship type over the line, and what can delay scrapping even when the ship is old.
Ship type
Common “decision window”
What usually forces timing
2026 angle: what to watch
Containerships
Often clustered around major surveys (owners sometimes push to a 5th or 6th special survey when markets justify it).
Industry reporting has cited an average demolition age around 23 years for containerships (10-year lookback).
Newbuild delivery waves + weaker charter demand quickly expose older, inefficient ships.
A separate driver is “backlog pressure”: BIMCO has flagged a recycling overhang (minimum ~500 ships / ~1.8m TEU) and a rising share of ships 20+ years old.
If rates soften while delivery volume stays high, timing shifts from “keep trading” to “sell before the next survey bill.”
The overhang story makes 2026–2027 a plausible catch-up window if earnings normalize.
Bulk carriers
Survey-driven more than people think, with tougher structural scrutiny as ships age.
Special survey requirements for bulk carriers explicitly step up through the 15-year milestone and beyond.
The classic trigger is “survey capex versus forward earnings.”
Recent market reviews show scrapping has skewed extremely old, with one industry dataset citing an average age of ~30 years for bulkers sold for demolition in 2024, implying owners have been stretching life where freight supports it.
Watch 15-year and 20-year survey clusters, especially for smaller/older designs that struggle to maintain efficiency ratings without speed cuts.
In a softer freight tape, demolition can flip quickly from “almost none” to “steady flow.”
Crude & product tankers
Timing is heavily influenced by charterer vetting, drydock/special survey cost, and trading limitations.
Older tankers can remain valuable if earnings are strong, which can delay scrapping even when ships are inefficient.
Tanker demolition can drop sharply when earnings spike.
When the market weakens, “special survey sticker shock” tends to become the decisive moment.
(Cross-sector demolition reporting also highlights scrapped ships skewing old in recent cycles.)
Compliance management matters more into 2026: ships rated D for three consecutive years or E for one year need a corrective action plan under IMO’s CII framework, which can push marginal ships toward scrap when combined with a survey due date.
LNG carriers
Typically later-life scrapping, and often “rare-event” driven (very old steam tonnage, major repair, or persistent unemployability).
Strong charter markets can keep even older ships trading, delaying demolition.
Sector reporting has described demolition as inactive in a strong year, with only one very old LNG vessel scrapped in that period.
Watch (1) efficiency compliance cost, (2) charterer acceptance of older propulsion, and (3) whether supply growth cools utilization.
If utilization stays tight, scrap stays limited.
LPG carriers
Often later-life, with small/older units scrapped first.
Scrapping tends to concentrate in small, very old ships when freight is strong.
One sector summary noted LPG scrapping dominated by small, old tonnage with a high average age in that cycle.
Track small-pressurized and older semi-ref segments first for demolition candidates if rates dip or compliance costs rise.
General cargo / MPP
Often scrapped earlier than many “headline” sectors when maintenance becomes repetitive and earnings are thin.
Reliability issues, cargo gear fatigue, and rising insurance and repair bills can matter more than a single survey date.
Watch local trade softness plus compliance upgrades.
These ships can be “quiet scrappers” because they do not always have the optionality of premium trades.
Ro-Ro / PCC
Timing often tied to charter structure and retrofit practicality (ventilation, fire safety upgrades, ramp and deck fatigue).
A weak contract roll plus a major capex requirement tends to be the tipping point.
Fire risk sensitivity can also affect insurability and charter terms.
Watch insurance and retrofit requirements alongside efficiency rules.
If retrofit costs stack, owners may exit rather than reinvest.
Simple timing rule: if a ship is approaching a major survey AND its efficiency rating plan requires meaningful speed cuts or retrofit spend,
scrapping becomes a “business math” decision rather than a technical one. IMO’s CII framework also formalizes pressure on persistently low-rated ships.
♻️ Green vs Traditional Recycling
Green recycling is not just a marketing label. It is a different commercial route with different paperwork, fewer eligible yards, stricter controls on hazardous materials, and usually a different bidder pool. Going into 2026, the practical question for owners is simple: do you want the widest price competition, or do you need a compliant pathway that stands up to EU rules, the Hong Kong Convention requirements, and charterer or lender scrutiny.
♻️ Green vs Traditional Ship Recycling: (2026)
“Green” here means an auditable, regulated recycling pathway (EU-listed and or Hong Kong Convention aligned),
not a slogan.
Decision dimension
Traditional recycling (typical route)
Green / compliant recycling (typical route)
What it does to owner economics
Who is allowed to recycle the ship
Broad pool of cash buyers and yards in major recycling countries, with compliance level varying by yard and location.
Narrower pool. EU flagged ships must use facilities on the EU “European List” (list includes facilities in the EU, plus places like Turkey and the U.S.).
The Hong Kong Convention also relies on authorized facilities.
Fewer bidders can mean less headline price competition, but higher certainty that the sale survives audit and reputational review.
Core legal and compliance framework
Driven mainly by local yard practice and buyer contract, with uneven enforcement depending on destination.
EU Ship Recycling Regulation (EU SRR) for EU flagged ships, plus Hong Kong Convention requirements for safe and environmentally sound recycling.
In Europe, EU SRR and related rules remain in effect alongside HKC.
Higher compliance cost and admin effort up front, but lower probability of a last minute compliance blocker.
Documents that make or break the deal
Basic sale and delivery documents, plus whatever the buyer requests.
Documentation depth can vary widely.
Inventory of Hazardous Materials (IHM) is central, and from HKC entry into force, ships destined for recycling need a Ready for Recycling certificate process,
plus an approved ship recycling plan prepared by an authorized facility.
Adds survey, sampling, and timeline risk if you start late.
If you start early, it reduces closing friction and helps defend the deal to charterers, banks, and insurers.
Hazardous materials and waste handling
Often cheaper on paper because downstream waste management may be less structured and less costly, depending on the destination and yard.
Stronger controls on hazardous materials removal and downstream disposal.
This is the real cost center behind “green” and one reason compliant bids may be lower.
You may accept a lower USD/LDT to buy lower environmental and liability tail risk.
In return, you get a cleaner audit trail.
Typical price pattern (headline USD per LDT)
South Asia often leads on headline price when demand is strong and waterfront capacity is available.
Compliant pathways often show lower headline pricing, with Turkey frequently cited as below subcontinent levels in late 2025 market commentary.
Owners should model “net to owner” rather than headline price:
a lower LDT may be acceptable if it avoids reputational loss, charterer restrictions, or compliance penalties.
Timeline and execution risk
Can be fast if the buyer has credit and the yard is open, but can also become opaque if requirements shift mid deal.
More steps but more structured.
Starting IHM and recycling plan work early usually reduces last minute surprises.
Green deals tend to punish “rush jobs.”
Traditional deals tend to punish owners with weak contract protection and late discoveries.
When you effectively must choose green
Optional in many cases, unless commercial counterparties demand it.
Mandatory for EU flagged ships under EU SRR.
Also becomes the practical default when charterers, financiers, or internal ESG policy requires a defendable end of life pathway.
Treat green routing as a strategic constraint like sanctions compliance.
It narrows options, but it also protects market access and reputation.
Quick compliance checklist owners use: (1) confirm whether EU SRR applies, (2) confirm the yard route is eligible,
(3) start IHM early, (4) align the ship recycling plan with an authorized facility, and (5) build a net proceeds model that includes survey and documentation effort.
🏛️ Regulatory Pressures Driving Scrapping
Into 2026, more end of life decisions are being made because the regulatory cost of keeping an older ship “acceptable” is rising. The big pattern is stacking: a vessel that is already facing a special survey or drydock is now also facing tighter carbon intensity targets, regional carbon costs, and stricter recycling documentation rules. For many owners, the question shifts from “can it trade” to “can it trade profitably without becoming a compliance project.”
Regulatory pressures that push ships toward recycling in 2026
This is the “scrap trigger stack” owners are modeling: carbon performance + regional carbon cost + required paperwork for end-of-life.
Rule or regime
2026 step-up
Who it hits
What it forces in practice
How it drives scrapping
IMO CII and SEEMP Part III (operational carbon intensity)
The required CII gets tighter: the reduction factor for 2026 is 11% vs the 2019 reference line.
SEEMP Part III revisions must be updated by 31 Dec 2025 under new guidelines.
Many ship types ≥ 5,000 GT under MARPOL Annex VI CII framework.
Ships get annual A–E ratings. A ship rated D for 3 consecutive years or E for 1 year must submit a corrective action plan to reach C or above.
Operational levers include speed, routing, hull/propeller condition, and sometimes retrofit or fuel changes.
If an older ship needs a major speed cut or retrofit spend to stay out of D/E territory, the earnings hit can make “keep trading” unattractive,
especially when a special survey is also due.
EU ETS for maritime (carbon allowances)
2026 is the bigger cash step: companies must cover 70% of emissions reported for 2025 (first surrender deadlines begin in Sept 2025 for 2024 emissions).
The “100% year” applies to 2026 emissions (surrendered in 2027).
Ships calling EU ports (scope depends on voyage type, with EU guidance and industry summaries describing the 100% intra-EU and 50% extra-EU split).
A direct, tradable cost line tied to fuel burn and voyage pattern. Higher carbon cost exposure makes inefficient ships and long EU-linked voyages
more expensive to run, even if freight markets are flat.
Older ships that already burn more fuel per ton-mile can become “margin negative” on EU-heavy trades once allowance costs are layered on,
making recycling the cleaner financial exit versus running at reduced speed with weaker revenue.
Applies from 1 Jan 2025 with a 2% GHG-intensity reduction requirement starting in 2025 and continuing through 2029 as the first step.
2026 is an “execution year” where pooling and compliance strategies start getting tested in real operations.
Ships above 5,000 GT calling at EU ports, regardless of flag.
Requires monitoring and compliance against a fuel GHG-intensity limit with penalties for non-compliance.
This can nudge owners toward low-carbon fuel blends, operational adjustments, or pooling arrangements.
If an older ship cannot economically access compliant fuels, or needs costly modifications to participate in the “cleaner fuel” pathway,
owners may choose recycling instead of funding a short remaining life.
Hong Kong Convention (HKC) for ship recycling
In force since 26 June 2025. From then, ships destined for recycling need the “Ready for Recycling” certification flow,
with IHM Parts and a ship-specific recycling plan prepared by an authorized facility.
Ships going to end-of-life recycling and the facilities that receive them.
Stronger documentation and process requirements at end of life (IHM and ship recycling plan) to prove safe and environmentally sound recycling.
Raises the “closing standard.” Owners that delay paperwork can lose timing optionality, while owners that prepare early can execute scrapping faster
when markets or surveys make the call obvious.
EU Ship Recycling Regulation (EU SRR) and the European List
Not new in 2026, but enforcement focus is rising, including preventing EU-flagged ships from circumventing obligations.
EU rules also require an Inventory of Hazardous Materials for EU ships and for non-EU ships calling EU ports.
EU-flagged ships (recycling must use EU-listed facilities) and third-country ships calling at EU ports (IHM requirement).
Narrows recycling options for EU-flagged ships, and adds IHM documentation expectations for port calls.
Compliance often means a smaller eligible yard pool compared with open-market sales.
Can change owner behavior in two ways: (1) some ships are recycled earlier because compliant routing reduces flexibility,
and (2) owners plan recycling sooner so the end-of-life pathway does not become a last-minute blocker.
The common 2026 “scrap trigger stack” looks like this: a special survey is due, CII requirements tighten (and the ship is trending toward D/E),
EU-linked voyages carry growing carbon costs, and the recycling route needs stronger documentation.
When those stack together, scrapping can become the lowest-risk way to stop losses.
🔮 Forecast: what changes scrapping economics in 2026▶
Use this forecast as a planning sheet. It frames 2026 as a year where steel price signals, FX, carbon costs, and recycling compliance
can move the scrap decision as much as freight rates.
Base case: choppy pricing, steady logic
If steel demand improves only modestly and yards stay selective, scrap bids often orbit recent market baselines rather than trend hard.
Watch: steel demand toneWatch: FX stabilityWatch: beach congestion
Support case: bids firm when constraints stack
If local plate strengthens, FX steadies, and available yard capacity tightens, buyers compete harder and owners can time exits around surveys.
HKC documentation expectations and yard approvals.
Prepared owners close faster and preserve timing optionality during survey windows.
Unprepared owners lose optionality, or accept weaker terms to meet deadlines.
2026 timing cues owners actually use
Survey cliff: If a special survey plus steel renewals are coming, compare that capex to one full year of realistic earnings under your trading pattern.
Bid credibility: In weak steel or weak FX weeks, treat headline quotes as “soft” until payment and delivery terms are locked.
Exit window: If you are leaning toward recycling, start IHM and paperwork early so the ship can exit when the market gives you a decent bid.
Net proceeds view: Model net to owner, not only USD per LDT. Include cleaning, class and flag steps, deviation, and time loss.
2026 quick calendar
EU ETS step-up: 2026 is the year companies surrender allowances for 70% of 2025 reported emissions.
EU ETS scope expands: Methane and nitrous oxide enter scope from 2026 for maritime.
HKC first full year: 2026 is the first full calendar year after HKC entry into force in mid 2025.
Bottom line: 2026 is less about one single “scrap price number” and more about stacking pressures. Steel and FX set the bid, while carbon cost and compliance set the urgency.
