Lay up, scrap, or slow steam: The 90 day decision playbook
September 16, 2025
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Container rates are soft, capacity is long, and cash burn rises fast. This 90-day playbook shows when to lay up, when to slow steam, and when to recycle using simple thresholds and weekly checkpoints. Use bands instead of single-point forecasts so the plan stays valid as fuel and spot rates move.
Protect liquidity first, then lock in the highest-value option for the next quarter. Gather these for each vessel: daily operating cost in service, hot and cold lay-up daily cost, reactivation time and cost, expected earnings per day by speed, scrap value per light-displacement ton, and any compliance or charter penalties that change with speed or status. Add two constraints that often decide the outcome early: class and survey windows, and loan covenants or minimum utilization clauses.
Days 1–30 — Stabilize cash and stop bad sailings
Use bands and weekly checkpoints
Pull a clean baseline per vessel, kill negative voyages, set a speed ladder, and test hot lay-up. Keep evidence in the call file.
Presets by size class
Presets populate common fields across the tools below
Runway: enter cash and burn
Scrap check: enter LDT, price, and market value
Days 1–7 — Sail vs cancel: one screen mini P and L
Enter a voyage. Treat canal and war-risk as all in. If margin is negative, stop or reroute.
Verdict: fill inputs and calculate
Result will appear here.
Runway impact: n a
Tip: compare against a detour and log the decision with sources and dates.
Days 1–10 — Speed ladder and breakeven ticks
Fuel varies roughly with speed^3. Test three speeds around your service point.
Verdict: build ladder to choose speed
| Speed kn | Days | Fuel t | Fuel USD | Opex USD | Total cost USD | Profit USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enter inputs and build ladder. | ||||||
Runway impact: n a
Tip: pick the top profit row and set it as default speed for this lane.
Days 1–14 — Hot lay-up crossover test
If operating loss per day exceeds hot lay-up cost per day, breakeven arrives quickly.
Verdict: fill inputs and calculate
Result will appear here.
Runway impact: n a
Tip: if breakeven days are below your expected idle window, hot lay-up is strong.
Days 1–30 — Actions and weekly checkpoints
- Cancel or reroute voyages with negative margin.
- Publish a speed ladder per lane and set default speed.
- Price hot lay-up with slot and reactivation dates.
- Confirm charter wording on AWRP and fuel surcharges.
- Pull two bunker quotes per port and align with plan.
- Create a one page file per vessel with chosen path.
Weekly cadence
Week 1
Baseline every hull. Kill negative voyages. Draft speed ladders.
Week 2
Lock speed bands. Price hot lay-up. Start vendor talks.
Week 3
Audit charter wording. Update bunker plan. Review margins.
Week 4
Decide hot lay-up list. Prepare 31–60 plan.
Days 31–60 - Optimize and lock savings
Consolidate services, cut leakage, firm contracts
Tune schedules, renegotiate vendor terms, and pick contract shapes that hold value if rates slide. Keep a one page file per vessel with choices, numbers, and next review date.
Presets by size class
Presets fill common fields below. You can edit after.
Vendor savings impact - 60 day window
Model cash saved from parts, agency, towage, repair cuts. Use realized not promised rates.
Verdict: fill inputs and calculate
Result will appear here.
Runway impact: n a
Tip: convert percent asks into unit rates per port call and per job so the savings stick.
Service consolidation and blank sailing - four week test
Estimate contribution change from fewer sailings plus a rate lift. Keep on time score high.
Verdict: fill inputs and calculate
Result will appear here.
Runway impact: n a
Tip: apply uplift to booked boxes only. Do not count no-shows.
Charter strategy quick compare
Compare 3, 6, and 12 month TCE against opex. Favor duration that clears opex with margin.
Verdict: fill inputs and calculate
Result will appear here.
Runway impact: n a
Tip: keep redelivery window flexible on soft lanes.
Bunker plan hedge check
See the cost difference between buying spot and hedging a share at a forward price.
Verdict: fill inputs and calculate
Result will appear here.
Runway impact: n a
Tip: use modest hedge shares so upside is not capped if prices fall.
Days 61–90 - Commit and execute
Reactivate, maintain lay up, or recycle Decide the path for each hull. Lock dates, cash needs, and documentation so execution is clean and audit ready.
Hot lay up vs recycle
Compare net scrap proceeds against the value of waiting in hot lay up for a set window.
Verdict: fill inputs and calculate
Result will appear here.
Runway impact: n a
Tip: update scrap bids weekly and include yard slot timing in the decision.
Reactivation planner
Set a target return to service date and see start dates, cash needs, and slack.
Verdict: fill inputs and calculate
Result will appear here.
Runway impact: n a
Tip: align drydock or class work while laid up to avoid a second stop.
Cash runway summary
Estimate months of runway under two modes. Use your global cash and burn if available.
Verdict: fill inputs and calculate
Result will appear here.
Tip: show runway change from your chosen path in your board update.
Decision and documentation checklist
Publish the path, attach evidence, and set the next review. Use status tags to track each hull.
- Pick path per hull and publish dates and costs.
- Attach calculator outputs to the call file and archive sources.
- Update charterparty and insurance wording for new status.
- Confirm reactivation or recycling RFQs are logged with timestamps.
- Set next 30 day review with owner sign off.
Status tags
Proceed Reassess Lay up now Recycle
Tip: mirror these tags in your fleet dashboard so decisions are visible to commercial and technical teams.
This 90 day set gives a simple way to compare sail, slow steam, lay up, or recycle with banded inputs. Each tool returns a clear verdict and runway impact, with CSV exports for the call file. Keep the presets current, refresh inputs weekly, and file the outputs with dates so the record is complete. If lane conditions or costs shift, rerun the calculators and update the status tags.
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