Container Rate Tone Weakens Again (Drewry WCI Drops to $1,959, Blank Sailings Rise Into LNY)
Drewry’s World Container Index fell 7% to $1,959 per 40ft for 05 Feb 2026, marking a fourth straight weekly decline. Drewry also flagged softer pre Lunar New Year demand and a sharper use of blank sailings, which is the real signal for owners and shippers: carriers are actively managing supply while spot rates slide across key East West lanes.
| Signal piece | Moving | Fast impact path | Operator-facing tell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index print | Drewry WCI fell 7% to $1,959 per 40ft (05 Feb 2026), the fourth consecutive weekly decline. | Sets a softer negotiating anchor and increases pressure to defend rates through capacity discipline. | More short-notice schedule changes and tighter controls on which sailings stay open for marginal volume. |
| Transpacific soft patch | Shanghai to Los Angeles fell 8% to $2,239. Shanghai to New York fell 5% to $2,819. | When spot fades into LNY, carriers tend to lean harder on blanks rather than chase volume at any price. | More rollovers and more variance by service string versus lane headline. |
| Asia to Europe slide | Shanghai to Rotterdam fell 9% to $2,164. Shanghai to Genoa fell 7% to $3,048. | Europe-bound weakness + active capacity management can create sharp week-to-week swings in availability. | Shippers see wider spread in quotes across different loops and cut-off windows. |
| Blank sailing intensity | Drewry flagged higher blank sailing frequency over the next three weeks. Transpacific: 18, 27, 28. Asia to Europe: 9, 16, 9. | This turns into a near-term capacity lever. Less capacity means fewer slots, more bunching risk, and higher chance of rolled cargo. | More “book early” messaging and faster closing of allocations on the stronger sailings. |
| Forward rate tone | Drewry expects further spot rate declines in coming weeks. | Encourages tougher shipper posture and pushes carriers to prove discipline through deployment, not words. | More aggressive tender and contract reset conversations, especially for short-duration deals. |
Comprehensive Overview
Bottom-Line Effect
The index print matters, but the behavior matters more. Spot is sliding into LNY and carriers are using blank sailings as the primary control. That combination usually produces uneven outcomes by string: some sailings are tight, others are cheap.
Lane snapshot (05 Feb 2026 spot prints)
Relative bar lengths are scaled to the highest value in this set for quick visual comparison.
Owner and operator read-through
- Weak spot plus heavy blanks typically increases schedule variance. The “average” is less useful than the string you are actually on.
- Expect more bunching at hubs when sailings are pulled, then reintroduced, creating uneven gate and yard rhythm.
- When the market is sliding, commercial teams often protect premium windows and let weaker windows clear at lower levels.
Shipper and forwarder behavior that follows
- More short-duration buying and more attempts to reset contract baselines quickly.
- More willingness to split freight across strings to avoid rolled cargo, even if it complicates tracking.
- Higher attention to cut-off discipline, documentation timing, and allocation rules.
Total blanks (3 weeks)
73
Sum of your three weekly inputs.
Implied capacity removed
1,022,000 TEU
Total blanks times assumed TEU per sailing.
Operational takeaway
Tighter windows
More bunching risk when capacity returns.
This is a sensitivity lens only. Actual slot loss depends on ship size, string mix, and how carriers redeploy capacity.
We welcome your feedback, suggestions, corrections, and ideas for enhancements. Please click here to get in touch.