Drewry WCI Drops Again (Blank Sailings Rise as Late-January Softness Spreads)
Drewry’s World Container Index for 22 Jan 2026 fell 10% to $2,212 per 40ft, the second straight weekly decline. Drewry cited broad weakness across Transpacific and Asia to Europe, with Shanghai to Los Angeles down 12% to $2,546 and Shanghai to New York down 11% to $3,191. Drewry also noted carriers increased blank sailings to counter softening demand and expects further rate declines in the coming weeks.
| Signal piece | Moving | Fast impact path | Owner-facing tell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark down again | Drewry WCI fell 10% to $2,212 per 40ft (second straight weekly decline). | When the headline benchmark slides two weeks in a row, spot negotiating posture shifts quickly and carriers lean harder on supply discipline. | More resistance to short cover at prior numbers, and faster re-quotes on prompt fixtures. |
| Transpacific leads the drop | Shanghai to Los Angeles fell 12% to $2,546 and Shanghai to New York fell 11% to $3,191 (per Drewry). | Lower headhaul pricing tends to reduce urgency for extra-loader tonnage and makes schedule rationalisation more attractive. | Charter demand becomes more selective, with more focus on exact delivery windows and durations. |
| Asia to Europe also eases | Drewry cited continued declines on key Asia to Europe lanes, including Shanghai to Rotterdam and Shanghai to Genoa. | Broad-based easing reduces the chance that one lane bails out the whole network, so carriers defend yield with cancellations rather than price. | More blank-sailing risk priced into forward planning and equipment positioning. |
| Blank sailings increased | Drewry noted carriers increased blank sailings this week to counter softening demand. | Blank sailings behave like capacity removal. That can stabilise rates, but it also creates reliability gaps and bunching, which show up as operational friction. | More rolled cargo, more schedule padding, and a higher premium on predictable tonnage availability. |
| Near-term bias points lower | Drewry expects further rate declines in the coming weeks. | Expectations can move behaviour: shippers delay bookings and carriers protect yield, creating a feedback loop until a new floor forms. | Owners see choppier charter sentiment, with stronger preference for optionality and shorter commitments. |
Comprehensive Overview
Bottom-Line Effect
A two-week benchmark slide matters because it changes incentives on both sides of the market. Shippers tend to wait for a better number, and carriers tend to protect yield with blank sailings. For shipowners and tonnage providers, the practical result is a shift toward more selective chartering and more volatile prompt conversations.
Rate and Capacity Mechanics
The key is that this is not a single-lane wobble. Drewry described declines across Transpacific and Asia to Europe. When multiple big corridors soften at once, networks can no longer offset weakness by shifting capacity to the one lane that is still paying. That tends to increase cancellations and tighten booking windows, even while the headline price is falling.
- Benchmark drops reduce shipper urgency to lock bookings.
- Carriers respond with cancellations to stabilise utilisation.
- Fewer sailings can create operational bunching and rolled cargo.
Blank Sailing Reality on the Ground
Blank sailings are not just a pricing tool. They also change equipment turns and schedule credibility. Even when the market is soft, a higher cancellation cadence can create local tightness, port bunching, and uneven container availability. That is where the signal becomes operational instead of theoretical.
- Exporters see fewer cutoffs that actually stick.
- Terminals see peaks and valleys instead of smoother flows.
- Forwarders add buffers and route cargo to whichever service is holding schedule.
Why Shipowners Should Care
Even though the WCI is a freight index, it drives carrier behaviour that spills into chartering and fleet deployment. When carriers defend yield with fewer sailings, charter demand can become more episodic and more tied to specific windows. That is often when owners feel the market turn as a change in inquiry quality, not as a headline number.
- More short-duration and window-specific requests for tonnage.
- More re-trading risk if freight keeps sliding.
- Greater premium on fuel efficiency and reliability terms.
Next Watchpoints
The near-term question is whether carriers can hold a floor with cancellations or whether the market keeps stepping down. Watch discipline signals rather than headlines alone.
- Blank sailing intensity over the next two weekly cycles.
- Whether Transpacific stabilises or continues to lead the decline.
- Whether Asia to Europe keeps sliding, which would keep pressure broad-based.
- Any network rewires that change effective capacity faster than expected.
Per-box delta
-$244
New minus prior, per 40ft.
Weekly cost shift
-$24,400
Containers per week × per-box delta.
Total over period
-$97,600
Modeled over 4 weeks