A new Bellona Foundation analysis says 100 sanctioned vessels used Russia’s Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2025, a sharp jump from 13 the year before. Reporting based on that analysis adds that nearly one third of ships using the route this year were tied to the sanctioned “shadow fleet,” with oil and LNG tankers making up most of the activity. The same reporting flags recurring risk markers in Arctic waters: weak or missing ice class on some ships, AIS gaps, frequent flag changes, and reduced transparency after NSR administrators stopped publishing some route activity and incident summaries.
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Arctic NSR sees a sharp rise in sanctioned “shadow fleet” voyages
A Bellona Foundation analysis, echoed by multiple maritime outlets, says about 100 internationally sanctioned vessels used Russia’s Northern Sea Route in 2025, up from 13 in 2024. The reporting describes the sanctioned share as close to one third of the cargo ships using the route, with energy trades heavily represented.
Quick facts that anchor the story
Count cited: 100 sanctioned vessels in 2025 versus 13 in 2024. Mix cited: 38 oil and oil product tankers, 13 LNG carriers, plus 39 cargo ships, 5 research vessels, and 5 service vessels.
Why it matters to shipping economics
When sanctioned traffic becomes a large slice of a corridor, screening, insurance placement, and counterparty risk all get harder. Even firms not operating sanctioned tonnage can see higher friction and reputational sensitivity around Arctic-linked calls and services.
Risk signals the market is watching
The coverage points to weak or missing ice class on some vessels, AIS gaps and frequent flag changes, and reports that some sanctioned tankers moved without formal NSR permits. Bellona also says public visibility has declined after NSR administrators stopped publishing some route activity data and incident summaries.
Bottom line
The NSR is becoming a bigger sanctions exposure zone. The consequence is not just regulatory. Arctic operating risk, thin rescue capacity, and lower transparency can translate into higher insurance and disruption costs that ripple into legitimate shipping activity near the same corridor.
Northern Sea Route becomes a heavier “shadow fleet” corridor in 2025
Item
Summary
Business mechanics
Bottom-line effect
Headline count
Bellona’s Environmental Transparency Center counted 100 sanctioned vessels operating along the Northern Sea Route in 2025, up from 13 in 2024.
A jump of this size suggests NSR “usage risk” is no longer edge-case. It becomes a repeatable pattern that compliance teams must screen for when chartering, insuring, or handling port services.
Higher diligence costs and higher downside if a counterparty is later linked to sanctioned trade. More friction can also increase voyage time variability and claims risk.
Share of traffic
Reporting on the Bellona findings describes nearly one third of NSR traffic in 2025 as tied to sanctioned “shadow” or “dark” fleet activity.
When a material share of the route is sanctioned linked, spillover effects rise for everyone: tighter inspections, higher scrutiny on documents, and a higher probability of disruption from incidents.
Reputational and compliance exposure increases for service providers and counterparties operating near the corridor, even if their own vessels are not sanctioned.
Vessel mix
Bellona’s breakdown includes 38 sanctioned oil and oil product tankers, 13 LNG tankers, plus 39 cargo ships, 5 research vessels, and 5 service vessels.
Energy cargoes dominate the sanctions sensitive segment, while non-tanker categories can be sanctioned for other reasons such as supporting restricted industrial or military logistics.
Tanker and LNG exposure remains the biggest financial driver: higher insurance sensitivity, higher casualty cost in Arctic conditions, and higher enforcement focus on energy flows.
Ice capability gap
Bellona notes 15 vessels with no or low ice class in the “northern shadow fleet,” including LNG tankers. Separate reporting highlights oil tankers with weak or missing ice classification operating on the route.
Arctic navigation adds hull, machinery, and escort dependencies. Lower ice class can translate into more delays, more damage probability, and greater reliance on rescue or icebreaker support.
Claims severity can be outsized in Arctic waters. Higher risk pushes up premiums, exclusions, and the cost of compliance grade coverage for legitimate operators.
Opacity signals
Bellona describes frequent flag changes and gaps in AIS transmissions among some vessels, reducing visibility during voyages.
Opacity creates enforcement uncertainty and can complicate port calls, bunkering, pilotage, and onward chartering. It also amplifies collision and incident risk where oversight is limited.
More counterparties treat “unclear movements” as a credit and compliance red flag, increasing rejected fixtures and adding cost to trade finance and insurance placement.
Permits and oversight
Reporting on the Bellona dataset says some sanctioned tankers transited the route without formal permission from the NSR administrator.
Operating outside formal routing and permitting channels can weaken search and rescue planning and complicate liability pathways after an incident.
A casualty involving a vessel outside normal oversight increases legal and recovery uncertainty, raising the expected cost of a serious event for insurers and coastal responders.
Data blackout risk
Bellona says NSR administrators stopped publishing public vessel location data and an annual accident and incident summary, reducing transparency for monitoring.
Less public information raises the cost of independent risk assessment for underwriters, cargo interests, and compliance teams, and makes it harder to spot patterns early.
Risk premia tend to rise when information quality falls. That can widen the gap between “compliant insured tonnage” economics and shadow fleet economics.
Rescue and spill response limits
Bellona warns Arctic rescue and spill response capacity is thin along the NSR, with limited facilities spread across a very long coastline.
In practical terms, response times can be long and capabilities constrained. That raises the expected duration and cost of disruption after a grounding, collision, or machinery failure.
Environmental and casualty risk is a bottom-line issue: higher consequence events can drive stricter inspections, tougher sanctions enforcement, and higher insurance pricing for Arctic exposed voyages.
Notes: Figures and vessel mix are drawn from Bellona Environmental Transparency Center reporting on the Northern Sea Route in 2025 and press coverage summarizing those findings. Commercial impacts vary by trade, flag, insurance, and counterparty screening standards, and by how quickly additional sanctions, inspections, or enforcement measures follow.
Complementary readout
Why the Northern Sea Route surge matters beyond “one more sanctions headline”
The Arctic angle changes the cost of a mistake. Longer response times, tougher conditions, and thinner transparency can turn a routine operational issue into a high-consequence event.
Numbers that frame the shift
Sanctioned vessels counted on NSR in 2025
100
Bellona’s count of internationally sanctioned ships operating along Russia’s Arctic coast in 2025.
Comparable count in 2024
13
Prior year baseline referenced in the same reporting, highlighting the step-change in activity.
Energy-heavy mix
51
Sanctioned tankers called out in the reporting: 38 oil and oil products tankers plus 13 LNG carriers.
202413 vessels
Low baseline, mostly oil and LNG tankers cited in the reporting.
2025100 vessels
Bellona describes the share as approaching about one third of cargo ships using the route.
Vessel mix at a glance
Oil and oil products tankers (38)
Ages and ice capability matter more here because the downside from a casualty can be severe in Arctic conditions.
LNG carriers (13)
Bellona also flags low or no ice class among some ships in the broader sanctioned set, including LNG carriers.
Cargo ships (39)
Some are cited for sanctioned logistics links beyond energy, including activity tied to restricted projects or military supply.
Research vessels (5)
A smaller slice, but still relevant for sanction-screening by service providers and counterparties.
Service vessels (5)
Often connected to industrial support activity, creating additional compliance questions around who is being supported.
Arctic risk markers that push costs up
Ice capability gaps
Low or no ice class shows up in the dataset
Bellona reports that a portion of sanctioned tankers operating on the NSR had no or only low ice class certification, raising the probability of delay or distress when ice conditions tighten.
Opacity patterns
AIS gaps and frequent flag changes
Coverage based on Bellona describes vessels that change flags repeatedly and have gaps in AIS transmissions, which increases collision risk and complicates accountability after an incident.
Information environment
Less public visibility on route activity
Bellona says NSR administrators stopped publishing public vessel location data and annual accident and incident summaries, reducing independent monitoring.
Response reality
Thin rescue and spill response capacity
Bellona describes limited rescue infrastructure along the route, which can lengthen response time and raise the cost profile of a casualty in remote waters.
Bottom-line translation: when transparency drops and the consequence of an incident rises, insurance pricing, exclusions, and counterparty friction tend to increase for anyone operating near the same corridor, even outside the sanctioned segment.
The Bellona reporting on Northern Sea Route traffic points to a sharp increase in sanctioned vessel activity in 2025, with energy-linked tonnage forming a large share of the movements. The development matters to shipping stakeholders because Arctic operations amplify downside risk: weaker visibility, tougher navigation conditions, and limited response capacity can turn operational problems into high-cost events. At the same time, the surge also highlights how sanctions-linked trade is adapting by leaning on remote corridors, which can raise compliance and insurance friction across related services and counterparties as scrutiny follows the traffic.
