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Global contracting for new dry bulk carriers has dropped sharply in 2025, with just about 25 million dwt of bulker newbuildings ordered between January and November, a 54% year-on-year fall and the lowest level since 2020. The dry bulk orderbook is now roughly 4% smaller than a year ago and stands at around 11% of the existing fleet, with the number of individual ships ordered down more than 60% and at the lowest level since the mid-2010s. Analysts point to a cloudy demand outlook, long delivery lead times into 2028–2029, and still-high yard prices as key reasons owners are sitting on their hands.
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Bulker newbuilding slowdown in plain language
Bulker newbuilding orders in 2025 are more than 50 percent lower year on year and at a five year low. The orderbook is small compared with the existing fleet, which means fewer new ships arriving later this decade if current trends hold.
Forward supply is tight: A thinner orderbook and modest deliveries point to low fleet growth from the late 2020s onward, unless owners suddenly start ordering again.
Modern ships gain pricing power: Eco bulkers look better protected, with stronger support for both charter rates and resale values as they compete with an aging global fleet.
Older tonnage faces a choice: Owners can try to trade on, but rising fuel cost, CII pressure and more selective charterers increase the push toward upgrades or recycling.
Charterers may pay more for cover: If demand holds, limited fresh capacity means that locking in period cover on good ships can become more expensive in tight years.
The slowdown in bulker ordering does not change spot earnings overnight, but it reshapes the next cycle. Owners, financiers and charterers should plan on a world where modern eco ships are scarce and valuable, newbuild slots are harder to secure, and decisions on recycling and charter cover have a bigger impact on long term P and L.
Bulker Newbuilding Orders At Five Year Low: Industry Impact
Item
Summary
Business Mechanics
Bottom-Line Effect
Contracting level
Bulker newbuilding contracting has fallen about 54% year on year to roughly 25 million dwt in January–November 2025, the lowest since 2020, with ship counts down about 61% and at their weakest since 2016.
Owners are deferring orders after a strong 2024 cycle, facing softer earnings earlier in 2025, uncertainty on future fuel rules, and long waits for delivery slots. Some months in early 2025 saw virtually no new bulk carrier orders placed.
📈 Forward bulker supply growth is being throttled; 📉 owners that delay too long risk missing preferred delivery windows if demand rebounds.
Orderbook vs fleet
The dry bulk orderbook has slipped about 4% over the past year and now equals roughly 11% of the active bulker fleet, a historically low ratio across most segments.
With a modest delivery pipeline and limited new contracts, any sustained demand growth or fleet inefficiency (for example canal disruption, congestion or longer trades) will translate more quickly into tighter vessel availability.
📈 Supports the next dry bulk rate cycle and underpins asset values, especially for modern eco ships; reduces oversupply risk later in the decade.
Price signals (newbuild vs secondhand)
Newbuilding prices have eased only slightly (around 3% since the start of 2025), while five year old bulkers have gained about 4% and now sell for roughly 93% of the price of an equivalent newbuild.
High yard prices and long lead times into 2028–2029 push many owners toward younger secondhand ships instead of expensive late delivery newbuilds, especially when charter cover is limited.
📈 Floors values for modern secondhand bulkers; 📉 reduces appetite for fresh newbuilds until the price and delivery gap becomes more attractive.
Deliveries and scrapping
Dry bulk deliveries have already slowed, with around 18 million dwt delivered in the year to date and scrapping running in the low single digit millions of dwt, leaving net fleet growth modest by historical standards.
A thin newbuilding pipeline combined with only limited demolition means fleet growth will increasingly hinge on whether older vessels are recycled on time or kept trading into their late teens and twenties.
📈 If scrapping accelerates, supply tightens sharply; 📉 if owners keep older ships, operating and compliance costs rise and CII pressure builds.
Fleet age and quality
Industry data show average fleet age creeping higher, with more than one third of global cargo capacity across sectors now above 15 years, and bulkers are no exception.
A slow orderbook today means a larger share of older ships competing for cargoes in the later 2020s, at the same time as fuel efficiency and emissions rules tighten and charters become more selective.
📈 Premium widens for eco and compliant tonnage; 📉 vintage ships face steeper discounts or earlier recycling if they cannot clear CII and charter benchmarks.
Yard slots and segment competition
Shipyards remain busy with container, gas and specialised tonnage, while bulkers, tankers and gas carriers together run below trend on new orders. Available slots at leading East Asian yards are often three years out or more.
Even if bulk owners decide to order later, they will compete with other segments for constrained capacity and may face higher prices and delivery dates pushed further into the 2030s.
📈 Early movers can still lock in some 2028–2029 berths; 📉 late movers risk paying more per dwt and losing flexibility on timing.
Financing and risk appetite
Banks and lessors are cautious about backing speculative bulker orders that deliver far beyond current charter horizons, especially with carbon cost and fuel choices still uncertain.
That caution reinforces owner reluctance to commit large equity tickets to ships that only start earning late in the decade, particularly when secondhand acquisitions can be financed against visible cash flow.
📈 Encourages balance sheet discipline and selective ordering; 📉 can leave the market short of modern tonnage if demand and regulations move faster than expected.
Strategic outlook
The combination of a thin orderbook, aging fleet and strong competition for yard slots points to a structurally tighter future bulker supply side if trade volumes hold anywhere close to current levels.
Owners, charterers and financiers need to stress test plans against scenarios where fleet growth stays low, asset prices remain supported, and modern eco tonnage earns a growing premium under CII and regional carbon regimes.
📈 Better forward visibility and potential for stronger rate cycles; 📉 higher entry cost for latecomers and more expensive cover for charterers if they delay locking in tonnage.
Notes: Figures are based on BIMCO, Clarksons and other market sources current in late November and early December 2025. Exact dwt and ship counts may be revised as late reported contracts are included.
What a thin bulker orderbook really signals
Owners have pulled back from newbuilds, leaving a smaller pipeline of ships that will deliver later this decade. If trade volumes stay roughly intact, fewer new hulls means more support for future rates and for the value of modern ships already on the water. The risk sits in timing and in how fast older tonnage is recycled.
Supply picture in one glance
Forward fleet growth (2027 and beyond)
Low
Support for eco bulker values
Strong
Risk that charterers pay more for cover
Elevated
Chance that late orders miss the cycle
Meaningful
Levels are directional and meant to highlight how the current order slump changes the balance between owners and charterers.
Group
Positive angle
Pressure point
Owners with modern eco ships
Fewer competing newbuilds make it easier for efficient ships to keep earning at or near the top of the market in the next cycle.
Decision risk on whether to monetise value through sales now or hold for potential stronger rates later.
Owners with older bulkers
A thin orderbook buys time if demand holds, allowing older ships to trade longer before a flood of new eco tonnage arrives.
Rising CII pressure and higher operating costs can still push these ships toward earlier recycling if charterers grow more selective.
Charterers and cargo interests
A smaller delivery pipeline can support more stable service from existing fleets if owners reinvest in maintenance and upgrades.
Less new capacity in the system means that securing period cover in tight years may cost more, especially for eco tonnage.
Two simple scenarios to stress test
Scenario A: demand holds
Limited new deliveries meet steady trade volumes.
Modern eco bulkers gain strong bargaining power.
Period cover and options become more expensive for charterers.
Scenario B: demand softens
Even with low ordering, older ships feel the squeeze first.
Owners focus on balance sheet strength and selective recycling.
Charterers can use softer periods to upgrade to better ships at smaller premia.
In both cases, the lack of a large newbuilding wave keeps the long term oversupply risk lower than in past cycles.
The sharp slowdown in bulker ordering leaves the sector facing a smaller delivery pipeline and an aging fleet through the second half of the decade. With the orderbook at a multi-year low and yard capacity still dominated by other segments, future fleet growth now hinges more on scrapping decisions and trade volumes than on a fresh wave of newbuildings. How quickly owners return to the yards will help determine whether today’s tight forward supply picture turns into firmer rate cycles or remains a missed opportunity.
