Bunker Playbook: Lock In or Ride the Spot in 2026
📊 Subscribe to the Ship Universe Weekly Newsletter
The bunker plan you choose in 2026 will move more money than any single retrofit. Rules tighten, alternative fuels spread, and spreads keep shifting by port. Start with the few signals that actually move your cost, then decide when to fix and when to ride the spot.
📊 Market Signals to Watch in 2026
Click here for 30 second summary
Look beyond today’s headline price. Check the price gap between ports you can actually lift at, the forward curve for the next few months, and the carbon cost if you touch EU ports. Add a quick view of fuel quality alerts and whether LNG or methanol is available on your route.
- EU ETS: surrender covers 70% of 2025-reported emissions in 2026, then 100% from 2027.
- FuelEU Maritime: GHG-intensity limits in effect since 2025; plan fuel mix on EU trades accordingly.
- Alternative fuels: LNG coverage is broad and growing; methanol bunkering expanding at major hubs.
- Fuel quality: off-spec risk persists; keep tight sampling and compatibility checks.
▼ Hub prices & port spreads
VLSFO/MGO at next lift ports, a reliable backup hub on the same rotation, and the all-in cost of switching (barge fees, time).
If the spread still wins after logistics, shift the lift or split volumes.
▼ Forward curves & volatility
Brent term shape, TTF/JKM if LNG is relevant, and EUA front plus 2026–2027 strips.
If risk looks skewed or volatility rises, consider partial term cover or a simple collar.
▼ Regulation cost adders (EU ETS + FuelEU)
Planned EU calls for the next 30–60 days, EUA reference price, and your fuel mix vs FuelEU intensity limits.
If EU exposure is material, bring part of the volume forward or add a collar.
▼ Alternative fuel access by port
Port readiness (delivery mode, minimum lift, SIMOPS rules) and any supplier timing or safety constraints.
Plan dual-fuel lifts where logistics and price line up; keep conventional fuel as fallback.
▼ Quality, compatibility & ISO 8217:2024
Local alerts from testing services and any ISO 8217:2024 notes relevant to current grades.
Tighten sampling, avoid untested mixing, and log any claims by port and supplier.
▼ Barge timing & delivery risk
▼ Supplier terms & credit
🧭 Lock-In vs Spot: The Decision Framework
Click here for 30 second summary
Decide coverage in small steps. Set a target range for the next 1 to 3 months, then let simple triggers move you from spot to fixed or hedged. Keep proof of why you acted so the team can audit later.
Start with a quick view of when owners typically fix, when they ride the spot, then follow the step-by-step tree. Use the calculator to see the cost impact on your next lifts.
- Forward or term offers are close to, or below, expected spot on your route.
- Volatility is rising and budget needs stable unit cost.
- High EU exposure and EUA prices are trending up.
- Credit terms on a supplier contract beat ad-hoc spot buying.
- Ops certainty matters more than a small possible saving.
- Hub spreads are wide and you can flex lifts between ports.
- Curve is flat or in contango and storage/tank timing works.
- LNG or methanol access gives optionality on certain legs.
- Supplier terms are weak or delivery risk looks high.
- Quality concerns make you prefer short, test-verified buys.
▼ Simple decision tree
- Price edge: term ≤ expected spot, or within a small premium you are willing to pay for certainty.
- Risk edge: high volatility or tight budget favors fixing part of the volume.
- EU edge: large EU share + rising EUA → add cover or a collar.
- Ops edge: delivery reliability or quality pushes you to term with strong suppliers.
Note: EU ETS applies to 100% of emissions on intra-EU legs and 50% on extra-EU legs. Use the calculator to include a carbon adder in your view.
▼ Inputs you need each week
| Category | What to grab | Use |
|---|---|---|
| Prices & spreads | VLSFO/MGO at planned lift ports + a backup hub | Shift or split lifts when spread survives logistics |
| Forward curve | Brent term shape, JKM/TTF if LNG in play, MF 0.5% futures | Decide on swaps, forwards, or collars |
| EU exposure | % of legs intra-EU vs extra-EU and EUA reference | Add carbon cost per voyage to the comparison |
| Alt fuels | Port readiness, minimum lift size, SIMOPS rules | Switch plan for dual-fuel ships when viable |
| Quality & logistics | Local test alerts, barge timing, supplier terms | Avoid off-spec risk and late deliveries |
▼ Quick impact calculator
- Fuel cost: $0 vs $0
- EU ETS adder (EUR): —
- Total comparison: —
Tip: If you prefer hedging, you can fix price risk with futures/swaps and still choose the best physical supplier later.
▼ Toolbox: physical term, swaps, and collars
Volume and tenor agreed with supplier. Good when logistics, quality control, and credit terms are strong.
Fix the index price (for example MF 0.5% at Singapore/Rotterdam/Houston). Separate price risk from physical execution.
Set a floor and a cap with options. Useful when budget limits matter but you want some upside if prices fall.
Common indices and cleared contracts exist for Marine Fuel 0.5% at major hubs; check CME and ICE product specs before use.
▼ Practical triggers owners use
- Term ≤ expected spot and delivery reliability is high.
- Volatility rises and budget requires stable costs.
- EU exposure is large and EUA trend is firm.
- Supplier offers better credit, sampling, and timing clauses.
- Wide hub spreads plus flexible port plan.
- Curve favors waiting and tanks allow timing.
- Alternative fuels open a cheaper lane option.
- Quality signals suggest shorter, test-verified buys.
⚙️ Hedging & Contracting Toolbox
Click here for 30 second summary
Use contracts and financial tools to control cost while keeping routing flexible. Keep terms simple, define the index clearly, and choose the lightest tool that does the job.
Pick the tools that fit your fuel mix, routes, and risk limits. Open each dropdown for use cases, setup tips, and common watchouts.
▼ Term bunker supply: fixed price or index-linked
- Stable lift pattern at a few hubs
- Credit lines in place with trusted suppliers
- Goal to smooth month-to-month OPEX
- Use clear specs and sampling language. Start from BIMCO Bunker Terms 2018, then add port-specific addenda. For LNG, include the BIMCO LNG Bunker Annex (2023).
- Define index and differential precisely if not fully fixed
- Include delivery windows, tolerance, and remedies for barge delay
| Structure | What you lock | Key risk |
|---|---|---|
| Fixed price | Total price for specified volumes at named ports and dates | Opportunity cost if market falls; volume shortfall penalties |
| Index-linked | Benchmark plus a negotiated differential | Basis risk vs actual delivered grade and timing |
▼ Swaps & futures: lock the paper price, keep physical flexible
- Marine Fuel 0.5% Singapore listed on ICE and CME for VLSFO exposure
- Low Sulphur Gasoil (LSGO) ARA on ICE as a common MGO proxy in Europe
- EUA futures on ICE Endex for the EU ETS carbon leg on EU-calling voyages
- JKM or TTF gas futures on ICE and CME if you bunker LNG
- Hedge by voyage, month, or rolling 3 month strips
- Target base consumption and leave a slice unhedged for ops variance
- Match index and geography closely to reduce basis risk
- Index mismatch vs delivered grade
- Calendar mismatch if delivery drifts into the next month
- Counterparty and margin requirements on exchange or OTC
▼ Options: caps, floors, and simple collars
| Tool | Use case | Cash flow shape |
|---|---|---|
| Cap | Protect a budget ceiling and still benefit if prices fall | Pay a premium. Receive if index settles above strike |
| Floor | Protect revenue when you pass fuel through at fixed rates | Pay a premium. Receive if index settles below strike |
| Collar | Reduce or remove premium by giving up some upside | Buy a cap and sell a floor to offset premium |
Listed options exist on the main marine fuel and gasoil benchmarks and on EUA, which simplifies execution and margining.
▼ Carbon exposure: plan for EU ETS surrender
Compliance ladder for voyages covered by EU ETS:
- By 30 Sep 2026 surrender allowances for 70% of verified 2025 emissions
- By 30 Sep 2027 surrender 100% of verified 2026 emissions
- Forecast EU calling voyages and grams CO₂ per voyage
- Stage allowance purchases or EUA hedges monthly or quarterly
- Keep a cushion for revisions after MRV verification
- Price swings around compliance headlines
- Registry timing and delivery rules for allowances
▼ LNG dual-fuel: hedging with JKM or TTF
- LNG bunker prices can include logistics premiums that differ from pipeline gas benchmarks
- Delivery month drift can leave residual exposure after settlement
▼ Documentation, credit, and governance
- Use BIMCO Bunker Terms 2018 as a base. Tailor sampling, compatibility, and delivery windows by port. For LNG, include the BIMCO LNG Bunker Annex (2023).
- Define index names, assessments, publication times, and fall back rules
- Set limits by instrument, tenor, and percent of forecast consumption
- Use simple reports: hedge ratio, P&L vs unhedged, next three months coverage
- Document approvals and exception handling
| Situation | Lean toward | Reason | What to ask the broker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable monthly lifts at one hub | Term supply | Operational simplicity and known price path | Quote fixed and index linked for next 3 months with delivery windows and delay remedies |
| Uncertain routing across hubs | Swaps or futures | Lock paper price while shopping physical | Quote Marine Fuel 0.5% Singapore 3 month strip sized to base consumption |
| Budget ceiling sensitivity | Caps or collars | Limit worst case while keeping some upside | Quote a cap at budget plus 25 to 50 per mt and a zero premium collar around budget |
| EU calling legs are material | EUA futures ladder | Stage carbon cost and avoid lump sum buys | Quote monthly EUA lots for next 6 months with delivery instructions |
| Dual fuel LNG flexibility | JKM or TTF hedge | Compare hedged LNG vs VLSFO and switch if favorable | Quote JKM or TTF monthly strips aligned to lift schedule |
- Basis risk is the gap between your hedge index and your delivered grade or timing
- Collar means you buy a cap and sell a floor to offset some or all of the option premium
🚢 Port-by-Port & Ops Tactics
Click here for 30 second summary
Choose ports by total delivered cost and reliability, not just the headline price. Size lifts so you can reach cheaper hubs, protect quality with clean samples, and keep a backup supplier ready.
Pick ports and plan lifts using a simple scorecard. Open a dropdown to see what to check weekly and the next step.
▼ Port pick matrix: price, reliability, and risk
| Metric | What to check | Rule of thumb |
|---|---|---|
| Delivered cost | VLSFO/MGO quote, barge fee, pilotage/port time, delay risk | Shift or split if savings survive all-in logistics |
| Reliability | Typical barge wait, berth access limits, strike/holiday patterns | Prefer stable windows on tight schedules |
| Quality record | Recent alerts from testing services, supplier track record | Escalate sampling when ports show recent off-specs |
| Paperwork | Sampling point availability, BDN completeness, local rules | Choose ports with clean sampling and documentation |
| Fuel options | LNG/methanol access, minimum lift size, SIMOPS rules | Use dual-fuel when access + minimum lift + price align; keep a conventional fallback |
If the backup hub wins on total cost and logistics, move the full lift or split volumes to reduce risk.
▼ Lift sizing & tank management
- Keep blend history by tank; avoid mixing unfamiliar VLSFO streams without a quick spot test
- Rotate tanks to prevent long storage times that raise stability risks
- Use a small safety buffer in tank when barge reliability is uneven
If a cheaper hub lies two calls ahead, take a partial lift now to reach it rather than a full lift at a high-cost port.
▼ Delivery windows & barge coordination
- Notice required at each port and typical delay bands
- Whether delivery at berth is allowed or anchorage only
- Any draft or weather limits that block delivery
Keep a pre-cleared backup supplier and a small buffer in tank to ride out short delays.
▼ Sampling, paperwork & custody
- Draw the representative MARPOL-delivered sample at the ship’s bunker manifold, continuously during delivery, with steady flow
- Prepare and seal a retained sample of ≥ 600 ml; label and record seal ID on the BDN
- Keep the retained sample under ship’s control for ≥ 12 months in a cool, safe location
- Use the retained sample for MARPOL Annex VI checks and, if required, flashpoint verification under SOLAS
- Ensure the BDN is complete and signed with the sampling point noted
Run a rapid test before sailing when time allows, and escalate to full analysis if the port has recent alerts.
These steps align with MARPOL Annex VI and recent IMO guidance on delivery sampling and retained samples.
▼ Quality triggers: when to escalate
| Trigger | Action | Goal |
|---|---|---|
| Fresh alerts from testing services | Take extra retained samples and request supplier history | Protect claims |
| Unusual density or viscosity vs last lift | Do a compatibility spot test before mixing | Avoid instability |
| Extended storage in tank | Turnover or polish; avoid blending with a new stream | Maintain stability |
▼ Alternative fuels: local readiness & SIMOPS
- Port readiness: delivery mode, minimum lift size, simultaneous operations rules
- Supplier list and any custody-transfer or metering requirements
- Crew training or permits needed for local operations
When access and price align, schedule dual-fuel lifts and keep a conventional fallback if windows are tight.
In Singapore, methanol bunkering is supported by TR 129 (2025) and proven by SIMOPS completed at Tuas Port in 2024.
LNG bunkering is available at ~200 ports globally; confirm local delivery mode and minimum lift before planning a switch.
▼ Contingency: last-minute changes
- Pre-approve backup suppliers for each critical port
- Keep a small buffer in tank sized to local delay bands
- Share a one-page port summary with ops, bridge, and chartering
“If ETA slips beyond the delivery window by more than 6 hours, switch to backup supplier or shift lift to the next port.”
📘 2026 Outlook & Playbook Updates
Click here for 30 second summary
Compliance tightens and alternative fuels reach more hubs. Keep a living playbook so lock-in timing follows the market and your routes, not last quarter’s plan.
Pick ports and plan lifts using a simple scorecard. Open a dropdown to see what to check weekly and the next step.
▼ Port pick matrix: price, reliability, and risk
| Metric | What to check | Rule of thumb |
|---|---|---|
| Delivered cost | VLSFO/MGO quote, barge fee, pilotage/port time, delay risk | Shift or split if savings survive all-in logistics |
| Reliability | Typical barge wait, berth access limits, strike/holiday patterns | Prefer stable windows on tight schedules |
| Quality record | Recent alerts from testing services, supplier track record | Escalate sampling when ports show recent off-specs |
| Paperwork | Sampling point availability, BDN completeness, local rules | Choose ports with clean sampling and documentation |
| Fuel options | LNG/methanol access, minimum lift size, SIMOPS rules | Use dual-fuel when access + minimum lift + price align; keep a conventional fallback |
If the backup hub wins on total cost and logistics, move the full lift or split volumes to reduce risk.
▼ Lift sizing & tank management
- Keep blend history by tank; avoid mixing unfamiliar VLSFO streams without a quick spot test
- Rotate tanks to prevent long storage times that raise stability risks
- Use a small safety buffer in tank when barge reliability is uneven
If a cheaper hub lies two calls ahead, take a partial lift now to reach it rather than a full lift at a high-cost port.
▼ Delivery windows & barge coordination
- Notice required at each port and typical delay bands
- Whether delivery at berth is allowed or anchorage only
- Any draft or weather limits that block delivery
Keep a pre-cleared backup supplier and a small buffer in tank to ride out short delays.
▼ Sampling, paperwork & custody
- Draw the representative MARPOL-delivered sample at the ship’s bunker manifold, continuously during delivery, with steady flow
- Prepare and seal a retained sample of ≥ 600 ml; label and record seal ID on the BDN
- Keep the retained sample under ship’s control for ≥ 12 months in a cool, safe location
- Use the retained sample for MARPOL Annex VI checks and, if required, flashpoint verification under SOLAS
- Ensure the BDN is complete and signed with the sampling point noted
Run a rapid test before sailing when time allows, and escalate to full analysis if the port has recent alerts.
These steps align with MARPOL Annex VI and recent IMO guidance on delivery sampling and retained samples.
▼ Quality triggers: when to escalate
| Trigger | Action | Goal |
|---|---|---|
| Fresh alerts from testing services | Take extra retained samples and request supplier history | Protect claims |
| Unusual density or viscosity vs last lift | Do a compatibility spot test before mixing | Avoid instability |
| Extended storage in tank | Turnover or polish; avoid blending with a new stream | Maintain stability |
▼ Alternative fuels: local readiness & SIMOPS
- Port readiness: delivery mode, minimum lift size, simultaneous operations rules
- Supplier list and any custody-transfer or metering requirements
- Crew training or permits needed for local operations
When access and price align, schedule dual-fuel lifts and keep a conventional fallback if windows are tight.
In Singapore, methanol bunkering is supported by TR 129 (2025) and proven by SIMOPS completed at Tuas Port in 2024.
LNG bunkering is available at ~200 ports globally; confirm local delivery mode and minimum lift before planning a switch.
▼ Contingency: last-minute changes
- Pre-approve backup suppliers for each critical port
- Keep a small buffer in tank sized to local delay bands
- Share a one-page port summary with ops, bridge, and chartering
“If ETA slips beyond the delivery window by more than 6 hours, switch to backup supplier or shift lift to the next port.”
We welcome your feedback, suggestions, corrections, and ideas for enhancements. Please click here to get in touch.
