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War Risk Surcharge Heatmap

October 8, 2025

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War risk pricing is moving in bursts this year. After fresh attacks and electronic interference warnings, additional premiums on key lanes have surged, softened, and surged again, turning a seven-day cover into a six-figure swing on larger ships. This report pulls the corridors together, shows the current pressure points, and gives fast tools to sanity-check voyage exposure.

War Risk Surcharge Heatmap 2025

Live corridors ranked by premium jumps after new advisories

Lower
Higher

Market signals (recent)

  • Red Sea often trades around the upper end of AP ranges during incident clusters; seven-day covers can reprice within days.
  • Strait of Hormuz lifted toward mid-range AP in June, eased later, remains headline-sensitive.
  • Israeli ports show sharp week-over-week step-ups when alerts increase.
  • GNSS/AIS interference advisories continue to feature in routing briefs.

Heads up

AP is negotiated per risk, ship and day. Ranges here are directional for planning; confirm voyage terms with your broker and underwriters before routing.
Corridor pressure board
Corridor / Zone Typical recent AP* Drivers of repricing Operational notes
*AP = Additional Premium for hull war per seven-day period. Ranges vary by hull value, flag, cargo, management, wording and voyage date.
Quick tools and timeline

AP cost snapshot

Seven-day AP
$400,000
Per-day equivalent
$57,143
Formula: Hull × (AP% ÷ 100). Per-day = Seven-day ÷ 7.

Cape vs Suez quick check

Cape cost add-on
$800,000
Decision (lower is better)
Suez cheaper by $150,000
Rule of thumb: Cape add-on = Extra days × TCE + fuel delta. Compare with AP on Suez.

2025 flashpoints (selected)

  1. June: Hormuz tensions lift AP toward mid-range; softening later with de-escalation headlines.
  2. July: Red Sea casualties and sinkings; AP revisits upper band.
  3. Early October: GNSS/AIS interference reported from Port Sudan to the Gulf; market remains headline-driven.
Sequence shows why quotes can whipsaw within a seven-day AP window.

Pre-bind checklist

  • Hull value confirmation and current COI on file.
  • Voyage declaration aligned with the latest Listed Areas and port notices.
  • Route alternatives modeled (AP + fuel + days) with decision notes.
  • Security posture and convoy options documented if applicable.
  • GNSS/AIS anomaly log briefed on the bridge and recorded.

This dashboard is built for quick route planning conversations. Treat the visuals and ranges as directional guidance; war risk is a live market and quotes can change within hours around new advisories. Route and bind decisions should follow your broker’s latest line-by-line terms.

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By the ShipUniverse Editorial Team — About Us | Contact


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