Where Detours Inflate Bunker Bills Right Now
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Detours are no longer the exception. On several big trades the long way has become the plan, and every extra mile turns into real money. Longer passages mean more VLSFO burned, more charter days, tighter loops, and tougher ETA promises. In this report we pinpoint the routes where detours remain common, show what they add in days and dollars, and give you quick tools to price the impact and compare alternatives so you can adjust speed, fuel, and contracts with confidence.
#1 Asia ⇄ North Europe / Mediterranean Status: Still widespread via Cape
Most carriers continue to route around Africa to avoid the Red Sea. That bakes extra sailing days into every rotation, ties up more ships per loop, and raises fuel and charter exposure. Even where a few test transits are returning, the network still largely assumes Cape timings.
Mechanism & Purpose
- Replace Suez legs with Cape routings on Far East–EU and Far East–Med strings to keep crews and assets out of risk zones.
- Stabilise rotations by planning for longer passages rather than gambling on sporadic safe-passage windows.
- Absorb extra sailing time with additional vessels per loop to preserve weekly frequency.
Current Status
- Detours remain common across major alliances; analysts caution against a rapid wholesale return to Suez.
- War-risk premiums stay elevated and carriers differ in risk tolerance, so any comeback will be gradual.
- Operational plans and customer advisories still assume Cape timings on most Asia–EU corridors.
Quick bunker delta (detour vs Suez)
Tip: if your service adds vessels per loop to keep weekly sailings, add the charter and crew cost of that extra hull to the detour bill for a truer picture.
#2 Asia → U.S. East Coast Status: All-water detours still common
Before the Red Sea crisis, many Asia-to-USEC services sailed all-water via Suez. Today most schedules use one of two workarounds. Option one keeps the all-water service but goes around the Cape of Good Hope, adding time and fuel. Option two lands on the U.S. West Coast and moves boxes by rail to the East Coast, cutting sea days but adding inland cost, handoffs and dwell risk. Operators switch between these based on reliability, rates and equipment.
Mechanism & Purpose
- Replace Suez legs with Cape routings on all-water Asia to USEC services to avoid Bab-el-Mandeb exposure.
- Alternatively push Asia cargo to USWC gateways and use rail to reach the East Coast, trading sea time for inland cost and coordination.
- Preserve weekly frequency by inserting extra vessels per loop or blanking to realign rotations.
Current Status
- Cape detours remain prevalent on Suez-routed USEC strings; a broad Suez return has not materialised.
- Schedule advisories still cite roughly 10 to 14 days longer transits on affected lanes; some cargo is shifted to USWC plus rail to keep lead times competitive.
- Carriers continue capacity discipline and ad hoc network changes; reliability remains below pre-crisis norms.
Quick bunker delta (Cape all-water vs Suez all-water)
Planning tip: compare Cape all-water versus USWC plus rail by translating your sea-day plan into daily burn, then add rail and drayage to the landed cost. Watch chassis and rail dwell at LA/LB versus East and Gulf gateways.
#3 Gulf / India → Europe (diesel/jet) Status: frequent Cape detours on clean product routes
A large share of diesel and jet fuel liftings from the Middle East and India to Europe continue to route around the Cape of Good Hope instead of using Suez. The longer track adds sea days, fuel burn and boil-off/handling risks, and ties ships up for longer, tightening effective supply on the clean tanker market. Some voyages still use Suez case by case, but many planners default to the Cape to keep schedules predictable.
Mechanism & Purpose
- Replace Suez legs with Cape routings from Jamnagar and Gulf load ports to Med/NWE discharge to avoid risk exposure.
- Run conservative speed plans to save fuel on the longer passage while protecting receiver windows.
- Use bigger parcels (LR1/LR2) where possible to dilute cost per tonne and reduce total voyages needed.
Current Status
- Detours remain common across clean products flows into Europe; Suez usage varies by owner risk tolerance and fixture terms.
- Schedules and freight indications generally assume longer Cape timings, with ad hoc switches only when risk and insurance align.
- More time on water lifts bunker demand and keeps a larger share of the LR/MR fleet tied up per delivered tonne.
Quick bunker delta (Cape vs Suez, LR tanker example)
Planning tip: if you can upsize to LR2 or consolidate parcels, re-run the calculator with a higher daily burn but fewer voyages per month to see the net effect on delivered cost per tonne.
#4 Qatar / Middle East → Europe (LNG) Status: Red Sea avoidance remains the norm
LNG carriers from the Gulf to Europe have largely stayed clear of the Red Sea. The common workaround is the Cape of Good Hope, which adds days at sea and increases fuel used for propulsion as well as cargo boil-off management. Where reliquefaction is available, the extra time also means more energy spent on reliquefying or more controlled use of boil-off as fuel.
Mechanism & Purpose
- Replace Suez with Cape routing to remove Red Sea exposure while maintaining predictable ETAs into Med/NWE terminals.
- Balance shaft power and speed against cargo handling: more days at sea raise total propulsion energy and boil-off management needs.
- Use reliquefaction where fitted to preserve cargo mass; otherwise plan controlled boil-off as fuel and adjust speed accordingly.
Current Status
- Industry schedules and advisories continue to assume Cape timings on most Gulf/ME to Europe LNG liftings.
- Occasional case-by-case Suez transits exist, but a broad return is not standard practice.
- Longer passages lift effective ton-mile demand and keep more LNGCs tied up per delivered cargo.
Quick energy/cost delta (Cape vs Suez, LNGC example)
Planning tip: pair this with your boil-off management plan. If reliquefaction is used, add compressor power and fuel for the plant; if you burn BOG, this calculator shows the extra consumption value on the longer passage.
#5 Russia → Asia (crude) Status: regular Cape detours from Atlantic loadpoints
Crude moving from Baltic and Black Sea loadpoints to India and other Asian buyers often avoids the Red Sea and heads around the Cape of Good Hope. The longer leg raises fuel burn and keeps tonnage tied up for more days per voyage. ESPO barrels from the Pacific side remain a separate, shorter route to Asia, but for Atlantic-side exports the Cape has become a common fallback.
Mechanism & Purpose
- Substitute Suez with the Cape on Baltic/Black Sea to India/Asia liftings to avoid Bab-el-Mandeb exposure.
- Use STS hubs where needed to consolidate parcels onto larger tonnage, spreading costs across more barrels.
- Plan speeds against laycan and receiver windows; longer passages encourage steady steaming to control total burn.
Current Status
- Detours remain common from Atlantic-side Russian loadpoints to Asia; ESPO via Kozmino to China/Asia runs separately and is not part of this detour pattern.
- Freight and schedule guidance often assume Cape timings on these flows, with case-by-case Suez usage depending on risk and cover.
- Extra days at sea lift fuel demand and keep a larger slice of the tanker fleet occupied per delivered cargo.
Quick bunker delta (Cape vs Suez, crude tanker example)
Planning tip: if you consolidate to VLCC after STS, raise the daily burn but divide by more barrels per voyage to see delivered cost per barrel; the longer route can still win if freight spreads and laycans line up.
Detours are a moving target. The fastest wins come from pricing the route you will actually sail, aligning speed and fuel with that plan, and updating customer ETAs and clauses accordingly. Use the calculators above to convert extra days into fuel and cash, then pick your play below.
Lock in the longer path
- Re-base fuel and charter budgets on Cape timings for the next cycle.
- Stabilize schedules with steady steaming targets and bigger buffers.
- Pass through surcharges transparently with clear ETA ranges.
Shift back selectively
- Trial one loop with Suez and compare landed cost per box/tonne.
- Re-check insurance, clauses and convoy timing before committing.
- Keep a Cape-ready schedule as a fallback for quick pivots.
Longer routes are still shaping voyage math on key lanes. When detours become the default, every leg absorbs extra sea days, higher bunker burn and more charter exposure. That effect compounds across rotations and quietly tightens capacity even when rates look calm.
Treat detour choice as a live input, not a headline. Update speed plans, VLSFO assumptions and charter terms against the longer path you are actually sailing, then compare against alternatives like split routings or gateway shifts. Small corrections per leg add up to real savings over a quarter.
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