Supply Chain Knock-on Tool

Stockout window Probability weighted Expedite proxy Mitigation levers

Translates shipping delay into downstream supply risk. Enter cargo type, downstream inventory coverage, alternate sourcing lead time, delay days, and discharge substitution options. Outputs a probability-weighted stockout window and an expedited logistics cost proxy designed for shippers and cargo interests.

Supply Chain Knock-on Tool

Translate delay into inventory risk, stockout probability window, and an expedited logistics cost proxy.

Inputs

Compact layout

Cargo type Cargo type sets default expedite multipliers and risk sensitivity.

Downstream inventory days on hand

Alternate sourcing lead time (days) Time to source and land substitutes, not just purchase order lead time.

Expected delay (days)

Discharge substitution option Affects probability of avoiding stockout and the expedite cost proxy.

Expected weekly demand value proxy (USD) Used only to size expedited logistics cost proxy and service impact.

Probability model and expedite settings ▾

Chance delay extends beyond expected (percent) Used to build a simple probability-weighted stockout window.

Extra days if delay extends (days)

Expedite share of volume (percent) Share of supply that can realistically be expedited.

Expedite cost uplift (multiplier) Multiplier on the demand value proxy for the expedited portion.

Results

Ready

Inventory Stockout risk Expedite proxy Probability

Probability-weighted stockout window

No stockout expected

Window shown as earliest to latest likely stockout day

Stockout probability

Probability-weighted based on delay tail and substitution option

Expedited logistics cost proxy

Approximate incremental cost to mitigate service risk

Coverage gap if stockout occurs

0.0 days

Gap between inventory and effective resupply timeline

Readout will appear here.

Charts

Inventory and delay

Inventory buffer versus delay scenarios

Inventory days Expected delay Tail delay

If delay exceeds inventory days, the stockout window opens unless substitute or expedite reduces the gap.

Stockout probability curve (by delay)

Probability Expected delay

Scenario breakdown

Expected and tail

Scenario	Delay days	Stockout day	Coverage gap	Probability weight	Expedite proxy	Notes