VLCC and Suezmax Ordering Wave Builds Again as Owners Compete for 2028 to 2029 Slots
Recent market coverage and order counts point to an ordering wave that is broadening beyond single yard headlines. Large crude tankers are leading, with VLCC and Suezmax contracting rising sharply versus last year’s pace and a meaningful share of new orders positioned for 2028 to 2029 delivery. For owners, the signal is not just more ships on order. It is the combination of yard slot scarcity, a push for newer compliant tonnage, and the risk that a clustered delivery window reshapes rate cycles later in the decade.
| Signal piece | Moving | Fast impact path | Operator-facing tell |
|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC contracting pace | Recent reporting highlights a sharp step-up in VLCC contracting in 2026 versus the same early-year period in 2025. | When owners lock slots early, the future supply conversation tightens around the delivery window rather than the spot market. | Charterers start probing 2028 to 2029 availability and optionality, not only prompt tonnage. |
| Suezmax surge alongside VLCCs | Suezmax ordering is also reported materially higher than last year’s pace, reinforcing that this is not a single-class story. | Two big crude classes moving together is a stronger forward supply signal than a one-off ordering cluster. | More “renewal” narratives and more dual-fuel or efficiency spec debates in term discussions. |
| Delivery window focus | Coverage indicates that many of the new crude orders are scheduled for delivery in 2028 and 2029, with a meaningful speculative component. | Clustered deliveries can change rate cycles later, even if near-term fundamentals stay supportive. | Owners and charterers start stress-testing 2028 onward scenarios when deciding period cover and asset plays. |
| Drivers beyond spot rates | Analysis frames the wave as linked to fleet renewal and a shortage of compliant tonnage, not only near-term freight strength. | Replacement-driven ordering can persist even if rates cool, because the decision is tied to age, compliance, and financing windows. | More owners treat newbuild commitments as “optionality” on compliance and future earning power. |
| Yard slot scarcity effect | Slot competition is part of the setup, with owners booking farther out as large-ship berths remain constrained. | Slot scarcity tends to pull ordering forward and can make the next leg of the wave self-reinforcing. | More deals described as “locking in 2028” rather than “ordering into a weak market.” |
Comprehensive Overview
Bottom-Line Effect
The market signal is forward supply being written now, with VLCC and Suezmax orders rising at the same time and a noticeable portion positioned for 2028 to 2029 delivery. That combination matters because it can leave the next 12 to 24 months relatively tight while still building a visible supply bulge later. For owners, this can influence three decisions: how much period cover to lock in, how to price optionality on older units, and how to think about replacement timing before the delivery wave arrives.
Directional read: why this ordering wave changes decisions now
Directional bars reflect the setup described in recent analysis: contracting is rising now, but deliveries are pushed out.
Owner tells to watch next
- Whether speculative ordering stays dominant, or whether more deals shift to long-term employment attached at signing.
- Whether the delivery window spreads out, or stays heavily concentrated in 2028 to 2029.
- Whether recycling stays muted, which would keep the effective supply correction lever weak while new tonnage builds.
Commercial read-through
- More index-linked period discussions as counterparties try to hedge a 2028 onward cycle shift.
- Greater divergence between modern eco tonnage and older units as compliance and fuel economics are priced harder.
- More emphasis on optionality clauses, extension options, and redelivery terms that preserve flexibility across the delivery wave.
Net fleet change (ships)
+20
Deliveries minus removals. Simplified.
Net change as share of fleet
9.1%
Net change divided by fleet size.
Cycle cue
Watch later-window pressure
If removals stay low, clustered deliveries can tighten the balance.
Simplified lens only. Actual balance depends on demand, speed, port time, routing, and trade pattern changes.
Source note
This signal is based on recent industry reporting and analysis published in February 2026 highlighting higher VLCC and Suezmax contracting versus the prior-year pace, plus commentary that a significant share of new crude tanker orders are positioned for 2028 and 2029 delivery and are often speculative. Examples include analysis from Lloyds List (Feb 11, 2026) and Riviera (Feb 17, 2026), with additional market color referenced by gCaptain (mid-February 2026).
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