Drewry WCI Slides for a Fifth Week: Spot Weakness Meets Heavy Blank Sailing Plans
The latest Drewry World Container Index reading extends a clear container signal: pricing is softening into the Lunar New Year period instead of firming. The composite index is down again, and the pressure is concentrated on the headhaul lanes that matter most for fleet deployment decisions, with Shanghai to Los Angeles and Shanghai to New York both lower, and Asia to Europe also easing. At the same time, carriers are leaning harder on blank sailings over the next two weeks on both Transpacific and Asia–Europe strings, which highlights a market that is trying to manage volume risk with capacity discipline rather than price power.
| Signal piece | Moving | Fast impact path | Operator-facing tell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Composite index | World Container Index (WCI) decreased 1% to $1,933 per 40ft container, marking the fifth consecutive weekly decline. | Weakening benchmark rates reduce near-term pricing power and push more emphasis onto capacity discipline and blank sailings. | More resistance to general rate increases and more lane-specific pricing dispersion. |
| Transpac headhaul | Shanghai to Los Angeles and Shanghai to New York each fell 1% to $2,214 and $2,800 per 40ft container, respectively. | Lower headhaul spot levels can translate into softer voyage revenue assumptions and sharper competition for loaded positions. | Quicker re-quotes, tighter validity windows, and more aggressive loading prioritisation. |
| Asia to Europe | Shanghai to Rotterdam fell 2% to $2,127 and Shanghai to Genoa dropped 3% to $2,965 per 40ft container. | When Europe headhaul softens, networks lean harder on capacity cuts and may reduce the upside of longer-term contract resets. | More blank sailings, slower recovery in premium products, and more pressure on equipment repositioning economics. |
| Blank sailing intensity | Carriers announced 57 blank sailings over the next two weeks on Transpacific East and West Coast lanes, and 24 blank sailings over the next two weeks on Asia–Europe/Med. | Capacity discipline becomes the lever to stabilise rates; the market is trying to manage volume risk rather than price from strength. | Higher schedule volatility, more rolled cargo, and tighter berth planning for terminals and feeder connections. |
| Seasonality break | Rates are falling sharply despite the usual expectation of pre-CNY firming; commentary notes rates peaked earlier than usual and could decrease further if the seasonal pattern continues. | When the seasonal uplift fails, forward confidence drops and operators may plan for weaker utilisation and more tactical network moves. | More service string tweaks and faster deployment shifts between West Coast, East Coast, and Europe loops. |
Comprehensive Overview
Bottom-Line Effect
The signal is not a single weekly downtick, it is the combination of a fifth straight decline and unusually heavy blank sailing plans. That pairing suggests carriers are defending the market with capacity management while demand is not delivering the typical seasonal support. For shipowners, the practical question becomes whether discipline holds long enough to stabilise rates, or whether competition forces additional spot erosion.
Directional read: price pressure versus capacity discipline
Bars are directional based on the published setup: spot rates easing while blank sailing counts are elevated for the coming two weeks.
Owner tells that usually mark a rate stabilisation attempt
- Blank sailing counts remain elevated for multiple weeks, not just a single fortnight.
- Rate declines slow and become lane-specific rather than broad-based.
- Premium products regain some spread versus low-end spot instead of collapsing together.
How this can show up operationally
- Higher rollovers and re-booking activity on headhaul strings.
- More bunching risk at terminals and tougher connection planning for feeders and rail.
- Equipment repositioning becomes more sensitive as headhaul pricing softens.
Blank sailing share
Blank sailings as a share of scheduled departures in the chosen window.
Discipline cue
High discipline
Capacity cuts are large enough to materially affect weekly utilisation and pricing tone.
Operational cue
Volatility risk
Higher blanking often increases rollover and schedule variability.
Defaults reflect the published two-week blank sailing counts. Scheduled departures should be set to the operator or lane assumption being evaluated.
Source note
Rates and lane figures reflect the published weekly assessment dated Thursday, 12 Feb 2026: WCI $1,933 (down 1%), Shanghai to Los Angeles $2,214, Shanghai to New York $2,800, Shanghai to Rotterdam $2,127, Shanghai to Genoa $2,965, and announced blank sailings of 57 (Transpac) and 24 (Asia–Europe/Med) over the next two weeks.
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