Chokepoint Shutdown Loss Estimator
Chokepoint Shutdown Loss Estimator
Wait vs Divert
Break-even day
Sensitivity bands
Calculates the cash impact of waiting through a chokepoint disruption versus diverting. It outputs the total cost for each path, the break-even delay day where diversion becomes cheaper, and Low, Mid, High sensitivity so teams can see when the decision flips as fuel, war-risk, and port costs move.
Chokepoint Shutdown Loss Estimator
Delay versus diversion cost view with break-even day, sensitivity bands, and a break-even curve.
Summary
Ready
Narrow mode
Wait total cost
$0
Hire or time value plus drift fuel plus daily running plus wait-side lumps
Divert incremental cost
$0
Extra sea days hire or time value plus sea fuel plus daily running plus war-risk delta plus diversion lumps minus toll savings
Break-even wait day
0.0 days
Delay beyond this point usually favors diversion on cash
Extra diversion days
0.0 days
Derived from diversion distance and speed
Decision readout will appear here.
Inputs
Charter type aware
Selects which per-day time value is used for the time component.
Presets only pre-fill speed and fuel burn fields.
Used as the daily time value for time charter.
War-risk delta ▾
Rate-based computes the delta and feeds it into the model.
Positive adds cost; negative reduces cost.
Sensitivity bands (Low and High multipliers) ▾
Charts
Comparison and break-even curve
Cost comparison at expected delay
Wait
Divert
Break-even curve (delay days)
Wait total
Divert cost
Break-even
The break-even point is where the wait curve crosses the diversion cost line.
Low, Mid, High sensitivity table
Scrolls horizontally| Scenario | Wait total | Divert incremental | Wait per day | Break-even day | Cheaper option at expected delay |
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Cost driver breakdown
Components| Line item | Wait side (USD) | Divert side (USD) | Notes |
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