HomeBunkeringBunker Price Sensitivity Guide: Fuel Cost To TCE

Bunker Price Sensitivity Guide: Fuel Cost To TCE

September 29, 2025

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When fuel jumps, voyage cash flow moves faster than schedules do. This guide tees up the exact levers that matter before you touch a calculator. what to watch in bunker curves, how each $10/mt rolls into $/day, and which quick tweaks protect TCE without hurting service. Skim the panels below, then run the calculator to see your own $/day swing.

Bunker Price Sensitivity (What Each $10/mt Means For Your $/Day)

TCE focus VLSFO | MGO | HSFO Owners | Charterers | Buyers

Importance

  • Fuel is the largest variable driver of voyage P&L on most routes.
  • Small bunker moves compound with consumption and sea days.
  • Speed and routing decisions shift fuel burn more than most fees.
  • Procurement tactics change when curves flip between contango and backwardation.
Goal: convert a $/mt bunker change into a clear $/day and total voyage delta so you can act with confidence.

What changes per $10/mt

Daily impact
$10/mt × mt/day
Use your actual consumption
Voyage impact
$10/mt × mt/day × sea days
Ballast + laden combined
Rule of thumb: a ship burning 35 mt/day sees about $350/day change for each $10/mt bunker move. Over 20 sea days that is $7,000.

Speed choice

Small speed trims shift fuel burn nonlinearly. One knot down can offset $20–$40/mt rises on many hulls at typical loads.

Use the calculator to see $/day at your planned knot range.

Fuel grade mix

VLSFO vs MGO spread widens and narrows with cracks. Scrubber ships watch HSFO spreads for extra cushion.

Set your grade and spread view before running scenarios.

Routing and timing

Canal tolls vs Cape, weather routing, and lift timing all shift sea days and burn. Price windows can justify short delays.

Record realistic sea days and off-hire risks.

Bottom line

Translate bunker moves into TCE quickly. If sensitivity shows a large negative swing, act on speed, trim, or routing. If spreads favor your fuel strategy, lock gains with procurement and consider hedging coverage for the next window.

Tip: sanity-check your inputs with the presets on the right, then run the calculator below.

Scenario presets & benchmarks

Quick tiles you can use to gauge scale. Adjust to your vessel below.
Handysize bulk · 22 mt/day
Δ$10/mt ⇒ $220/day
Δ$50/mt · 20d ⇒ $22,000
Panamax bulk · 30 mt/day
Δ$10/mt ⇒ $300/day
Δ$50/mt · 20d ⇒ $30,000
VLCC crude · 60 mt/day
Δ$10/mt ⇒ $600/day
Δ$50/mt · 20d ⇒ $60,000
Benchmarks are indicative and vary by hull condition, weather, load, and maintenance state.

Bunker Price Sensitivity Calculator

Turn a bunker price change into clear $/day and voyage totals. Adjust consumption and sea/port days to match your voyage plan.

Core Assumptions

Tip: For a simple estimate, set ballast/laden to your typical burn and days, or zero-out segments you don’t need.

Optional Retrofit Payback

Use this to test a fuel-saving upgrade against your current bunker price (not the change).

Daily Impact

$ per day from bunker move
$0
Formula: ΔPrice × weighted mt/day

Voyage Impact

Total $ change over all days
$0
Formula: ΔPrice × total mt consumed

Average $/Day Across Voyage

Voyage total ÷ total days
$0
Useful proxy for TCE swing

Segment Breakdown

Segment Days mt/day Total mt $ Impact
Totals 0 — 0 $0

Retrofit Savings (Optional)

$0/day savings
Based on current bunker price, weighted consumption, and savings %.

Retrofit Payback

—
Shows days and months to recover CAPEX, ignoring financing and tax effects.
Assumes linear response of cost to price changes (ΔPrice × consumption). Actuals vary with weather, routing, hull condition, and engine load.

Use this calculator to sanity-check voyage decisions during volatile weeks. If the average $/day swing is material, consider speed trims, routing changes, or staged liftings. When spreads move in your favor, lock gains through procurement or partial hedges. For retrofits, test payback at your real consumption and grade mix before committing capital.

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By the ShipUniverse Editorial Team — About Us | Contact


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