Marine Fuel Demand Stalls Near 5 Million Barrels Per Day

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that global marine fuel consumption, after a brief pandemic-era boost, is set to plateau around 5 million barrels per day through 2030. Drivers include tightening environmental regulation, weak global trade growth, and a shift toward cleaner shipping. While Red Sea route extensions offered temporary upside, rising freight, insurance costs, and investment hurdles are tempering long-term bunker demand. This shift marks a pivotal inflection point for the shipping industry’s energy strategy.

Marine Fuel Demand Outlook 2025–2030
Factor	Details	Impact	Timing
Demand Plateau	Demand set to stagnate ~5 mbpd through 2030	Limits bunker volume growth and merchant fleet fuel buyers	2024‑2030
Environmental Rules	IMO's carbon pricing scheme from 2028; tighter sulphur limits	Increases cost of conventional bunker fuels	From 2025‑2028
Economic Slump	Sluggish trade and higher supply chain costs	Reduces freight demand and bunkering activity	Ongoing
Route Disruptions	Red Sea diversion added ~140 kbpd in 2024	Temporary uplift; offset by broader headwinds	2024 only
Freight & Insurance Costs	Higher premiums squeeze margins	Suppresses chartering/bunkering demand	Now‑2030
Note: Insights drawn from IEA report and Singapore bunkering data.

Industry Impact Overview:

As marine fuel demand plateaus around 5 million barrels per day, the ripple effects are spreading across shipping economics, infrastructure investments, and alternative energy development. While global rerouting (e.g., Red Sea diversions) gave a temporary lift, the broader trend shows stagnation driven by regulatory, economic, and operational headwinds.

🔍 Key Impacts

• Capex Reevaluation: Bunkering hubs and refineries are reassessing fuel infrastructure expansions in light of long-term demand flattening.
• Green Fuel Momentum: Investors shift focus to LNG, ammonia, and biofuel bunkering terminals, especially near EU and East Asian ports.
• Freight Cost Volatility: Lower fuel demand hasn’t translated to lower costs due to rising geopolitical risks and insurance burdens.
• Efficiency Pressure: Carriers are under greater pressure to improve fuel efficiency and emissions tracking per voyage.
• Route Strategy Shifts: Longer routes (e.g., via Cape of Good Hope) bring temporary demand gains, but not enough to offset the macro slowdown.

Key Stakeholder Response to Bunker Demand Plateau
Stakeholder	Response	Motivation	Timeline
Refiners (e.g., ExxonMobil, Shell)	Scaling back marine fuel output forecasts	Avoid overproduction and market saturation	2025–2027
Ports (e.g., Singapore, Rotterdam)	Accelerating LNG & ammonia bunkering infrastructure	Stay competitive in decarbonizing fuel market	Now–2030
Shipping Lines (e.g., Maersk, ONE)	Investing in dual-fuel ships and route optimization	Reduce long-term fuel cost exposure	2024–2029
Governments/IMO	Rolling out carbon levies and fuel intensity targets	Push for emissions compliance	2025–2030
Fuel Traders	Increasing volatility hedging and forward contracts	Protect margins in stagnant growth environment	Ongoing
Note: Based on July 2025 IEA insights, port data, and recent shipping fuel strategy disclosures.

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