HomeBunkering12 Current Fuel Insights That Boost TCE

12 Current Fuel Insights That Boost TCE

September 23, 2025

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Bunkers decide margin when the market runs hot, and today they are the fastest lever you control. This report turns fuel into action: read the Hi5 at the four key hubs, match the right ships to the right lifts, and set speeds that keep earnings per day moving in your favor. Use the tiles to spot spread opportunities, avoid costly detours, and tighten ROB and QA so every ton you buy works harder. Start here, make one clear bunker call, and carry the TCE gains through the week.

🖨️ Quick Print PDF Summary

1️⃣ Hi5 spread by hub
Bottom-line impact
Signal Importance
  • Hi5 defines the daily cost edge of scrubber ships versus non scrubber fleets.
  • Hub-to-hub Hi5 differences decide where to lift on AG to Asia and Atlantic to Asia voyages.
  • Sustained wide Hi5 supports higher service speeds on scrubber ships without eroding net dollars per day.
Triggers and actions
  • Hi5 widens at Singapore or Fujairah → prioritize scrubber vessels on long legs and plan lifts at the most favorable hub.
  • Hi5 narrows across hubs → shift emphasis to fuel efficient hulls, slower speed ladders, and optimized trim.
  • Hub Hi5 diverges by a clear margin → reroute to lift where the spread pays for the detour time.
Quick read guide
Log VLSFO and HSFO at Singapore, Fujairah, Rotterdam, and Houston. Compute Hi5 for each hub and rank them from widest to narrowest. Match scrubber ships to voyages that can lift at wide Hi5 hubs and keep non scrubber ships aligned with the cheapest VLSFO on route.
Common pitfalls
  • Comparing prices without freight, time cost, and barge availability.
  • Using single port indications instead of a hub basket that fits your lane.
  • Assuming Hi5 is static through the voyage and not revisiting mid trip lifts.
Operator checklist
  • Record VLSFO, HSFO, and Hi5 for the four hubs at market open.
  • Align scrubber deployment and service speeds to the widest Hi5 hubs.
  • Verify supply lead times and grades before altering route to lift.
  • Cross check with routing share and AG list before final pricing.
2️⃣ Four-hub lift ladder
Bottom-line impact
Signal Importance
  • Creates a daily pecking order for where to bunker on your routes.
  • Ties lift timing to the next consumption window rather than habit.
  • Combines price, availability, and detour time into one decision.
Triggers and actions
  • One hub is clearly cheaper on delivered basis → plan a full lift there if schedule allows.
  • Two hubs within a narrow band → split lifts to manage timing risk and barge slots.
  • Fujairah tight or weather at Singapore → move lift to the next rung even if price is slightly higher.
  • Large Hi5 at one hub and scrubber vessel available → prioritize that hub for longer legs.
Quick read guide
For each voyage, estimate days to next bunkering point and expected burn. Calculate delivered cost per ton at the four hubs including quality grade, barge fee, and any detour time value. Rank hubs from best to worst and choose lift now or later based on the ladder and your laycan timing.
Common pitfalls
  • Comparing posted prices without barge, waiting, and quality adjustments.
  • Chasing the cheapest hub and missing schedule risk near laycans.
  • Ignoring reserve policy and weather that change safe lift size.
Operator checklist
  • Log VLSFO, HSFO, Hi5, barge fees, and earliest delivery at all four hubs.
  • Compute delivered cost per ton and detour time value for your next lift window.
  • Pick full lift or split lift based on the ladder and your schedule buffers.
  • Cross check with routing choice and AG list before confirming ETA and quantities.
3️⃣ Singapore HSFO share
Bottom-line impact
Signal Importance
  • Singapore is a price setter for Asia flows and influences nearby hubs.
  • Higher HSFO share often aligns with wider Hi5 and better scrubber economics.
  • Mix shifts can steer lift choices on AG to Asia and Atlantic to Asia voyages.
Triggers and actions
  • HSFO share rises week over week → deploy scrubber ships on longer legs and plan larger HSFO lifts.
  • HSFO share falls while VLSFO tightens → slow service speeds on non scrubber ships and shift lifts to cheapest VLSFO hubs.
  • Sharp change in share alongside quality alerts → tighten QA and consider split lifts to manage risk.
Quick read guide
Track the monthly and weekly HSFO share and pair it with Hi5 at Singapore and Fujairah. If share and Hi5 both trend higher, prefer HSFO lifts for scrubber ships and consider slightly higher service speeds where schedule allows.
Common pitfalls
  • Reading a single month in isolation when seasonal patterns matter.
  • Ignoring delivery lead times and barge constraints that can erase price advantages.
  • Assuming the Singapore mix will mirror other hubs without checking local supply conditions.
Operator checklist
  • Log the latest HSFO and VLSFO sales shares for Singapore.
  • Cross check Hi5 at Singapore and Fujairah before fixing lift plans.
  • Confirm grades, QA windows, and barge slots before committing to larger HSFO volumes.
  • Align scrubber deployment and speed strategy with the mix trend.
4️⃣ Med SOx ECA rules
Bottom-line impact
Signal Importance
  • Shifts part of your voyage burn to 0.10 percent sulfur fuel unless scrubbers are used.
  • Changes optimal lift ports for AG to Med, USG to Med, and cross Med voyages.
  • Impacts ROB strategy, segregation, and price exposure on VLSFO and MGO.
Triggers and actions
  • Upcoming entry into the Med ECA → switchover plan and logbook completed before the boundary.
  • Scrubber in use → confirm local discharge restrictions and monitoring records.
  • Tight supply at key Med hubs → advance lift at ARA or Atlantic hubs and carry compliant fuel in.
  • Price spike in MGO or very low sulfur fuel → slow steaming through the ECA where schedule allows.
Quick read guide
Map your ECA entry and exit waypoints. Estimate hours inside the zone and expected consumption at planned speed. Choose lift ports that minimize delivered cost of compliant fuel and confirm barge availability and testing windows. Record switchover timing and keep samples and BDNs ready for inspection.
Common pitfalls
  • Insufficient segregation that forces mixing and off spec risk.
  • Late switchover that triggers non compliance exposure at the boundary.
  • Assuming open loop scrubbers are accepted everywhere without checking local rules.
Operator checklist
  • Confirm 0.10 percent sulfur compliance plan and switchover timing in the log.
  • Verify lift ports, grades, and testing windows for compliant fuel before entry.
  • Ensure scrubber documentation, monitoring data, and overboard discharge policy are in order.
  • Align speed and reserve policy to hours inside the ECA and expected weather.
5️⃣ Bunker QA and testing
Bottom-line impact
Signal Importance
  • Prevents off spec fuel from causing slowdowns, cleaning, and claims.
  • Reduces commingling risk when switching grades or hubs.
  • Supports evidence for recovery if disputes arise after delivery.
Triggers and actions
  • New hub or new supplier → tighten sampling, retain sealed MARPOL samples, and request rapid lab turn.
  • Viscosity or density out of pattern → segregate and await results before use.
  • High cat fines or TSP risk → blend cautiously, increase purifier settings, and adjust changeover timing.
  • Any quality alert from industry bodies → switch to proven suppliers and shorten testing windows.
Quick read guide
Before delivery confirm sampling method, seals, and BDN details. Retain drip samples, send a representative sample to an accredited lab, and hold the fuel in segregation until key results are back. For VLSFO blends test stability and compatibility before commingling with existing bunkers. Keep purifier settings and filters aligned with lab findings.
Common pitfalls
  • Accepting ship’s manifold sampling without verified continuous drip procedures.
  • Using stability only and ignoring compatibility when mixing VLSFO parcels.
  • Burning before lab results on tight schedules and losing evidence if issues appear.
Operator checklist
  • Agree sampling plan and seal numbers with supplier and barge before start.
  • Send samples to an accredited lab and request fast track for critical parameters.
  • Segregate new parcels and run spot compatibility tests before commingling.
  • Set purifier throughput, temperature, and water content control to match lab results.
  • File BDN, lab reports, and photos of seals for claim readiness.
6️⃣ East West VLSFO spread
Bottom-line impact
Signal Importance
  • Shows where VLSFO is structurally cheaper or tighter across basins.
  • Influences whether to lift before canal transits or defer to the next basin.
  • Pairs with Hi5 to decide scrubber versus non scrubber deployment on long hauls.
Triggers and actions
  • Asia VLSFO discounts to Atlantic widen → plan larger lifts east and carry forward to reduce Atlantic exposure.
  • Atlantic VLSFO turns cheaper than Asia → defer lifts to ARA or US Gulf where schedule allows.
  • Sharp weekly change → recheck speed and ROB plan since consumption timing shifts with route and weather.
Quick read guide
Track VLSFO benchmarks at Singapore, Fujairah, Rotterdam, and Houston. Compute East minus West and rank hubs by delivered cost. If the spread is wide, lift more where it is cheaper and slow slightly through the expensive basin. If the spread narrows, split lifts to manage timing risk and barge availability.
Common pitfalls
  • Ignoring barge queues and earliest delivery which can erase price advantages.
  • Comparing benchmarks without adding quality adjustments and detour time value.
  • Over lifting cheap fuel and creating draft limits or trim penalties on shallow ports.
Operator checklist
  • Log daily VLSFO at the four hubs and calculate East minus West.
  • Update delivered cost with barge fees, quality, and detour time.
  • Set lift size and speed plan based on the spread and your next consumption window.
  • Cross check with routing choice, Hi5, and AG list before fixing quantities.
7️⃣ Availability lead times
Bottom-line impact
Signal Importance
  • Lead time spreads between hubs often outweigh headline price differences.
  • Barge congestion and holidays can push lifts past laycans and erode TCE.
  • Different grades and quantities have different queues which affects split lift decisions.
Triggers and actions
  • Earliest delivery extends beyond ETA window → shift lift to the next ladder rung or split parcels.
  • HSFO lead time longer than VLSFO → protect scrubber advantage by booking earlier or lifting partial now.
  • Weather or draft limits at anchorage → move to alongside delivery or alternate berth if feasible.
  • Back to back port calls → secure barge slot and pilotage window together to avoid idle time.
Quick read guide
Each morning record earliest delivery, typical waiting, and supplier notes for VLSFO and HSFO at Singapore, Fujairah, Rotterdam, and Houston. Compare the time cost of waiting with the price advantage. If waiting days exceed the time value of the discount, climb the ladder to the next hub or split the lift across hubs to keep schedule control.
Common pitfalls
  • Assuming weekend or holiday service without checking supplier work rules.
  • Chasing a lower posted price when barge queues and swell make delivery uncertain.
  • Booking a large single lift that creates draft or trim penalties at the next port.
Operator checklist
  • Confirm earliest delivery, product grade, and barge alongside limits at each hub.
  • Hold a backup supplier or STS plan when lead times are stretched.
  • Align pilotage, berth window, and barge ETA to avoid dead time at anchor.
  • Recompute delivered cost including waiting hours valued at your current TCE.
8️⃣ Hi5 volatility playbook
Bottom-line impact
Signal Importance
  • Wider Hi5 increases daily advantage for scrubber ships on long legs.
  • Narrower Hi5 reduces that edge and rewards fuel efficient hulls and slower speed plans.
  • Spread direction by hub decides where to lift now and where to defer.
Triggers and actions
  • Hi5 widens meaningfully at your next hub → deploy scrubber ships, add lift size there, and allow a small speed increase on long hauls.
  • Hi5 collapses toward flat → shift to VLSFO centric plans, trim speed, and reduce HSFO lift size.
  • Spread diverges by hub → route to the hub with the best spread if detour time value is positive.
  • Day to day whipsaw → split lifts and shorten price exposure windows.
Quick read guide
Track Hi5 for four hubs each morning and keep a 7 day average. If today is above the average by a clear margin, treat it as a wide spread day and lean into scrubber deployment and larger HSFO lifts. If today is below the average, prioritize VLSFO hubs, conserve speed, and keep lift sizes modest until the spread stabilizes.
Common pitfalls
  • Chasing an intraday move without checking barge availability and earliest delivery.
  • Over lifting HSFO on shallow drafts that create trim or speed penalties.
  • Ignoring quality and compatibility when switching blends mid voyage.
Operator checklist
  • Log VLSFO, HSFO, and Hi5 for Singapore, Fujairah, Rotterdam, and Houston plus the 7 day average.
  • Set scrubber deployment, lift size, and service speed based on spread regime.
  • Recheck detour time value before routing to a spread winner hub.
  • Confirm QA, compatibility tests, and barge slots before larger HSFO lifts.
9️⃣ USG vs ARA economics
Bottom-line impact
Signal Importance
  • USG often competes with ARA on VLSFO while HSFO dynamics can diverge.
  • Barge, truck, and terminal charges differ materially and swing the real delivered price.
  • Route timing (Panama, Suez, or Cape) determines whether carrying forward or deferring pays.
Triggers and actions
  • USG discount to ARA widens → lift larger in USG and carry forward if draft and trim allow.
  • ARA turns cheaper net of fees → defer lift to ARA, keep ROB tight leaving USG.
  • Panama or weather delays outbound USG → revalue time cost and consider ARA or mid-Atlantic top-up.
  • Hi5 wider in ARA than USG → prioritize HSFO lifts in ARA for scrubber ships on long hauls.
Quick read guide
Build a two-line comparison each morning: delivered VLSFO and HSFO at USG vs ARA, adding barge, terminal, and typical waiting. Convert any extra waiting into a time value using your current TCE. If the net advantage exceeds the time value and detour cost, lift there; otherwise defer to the other hub or split lifts.
Common pitfalls
  • Comparing posted prices without including local charges and minimums.
  • Over-carrying cheap fuel and paying draft or speed penalties on shallow berths.
  • Missing U.S. holiday or survey windows that tighten barge availability.
Operator checklist
  • Log VLSFO and HSFO benchmarks plus barge and terminal fees for USG and ARA.
  • Estimate waiting and convert to a time value at your current earnings per day.
  • Check draft constraints and trim penalties before planning large carry-forward lifts.
  • Cross check with routing choice, Hi5, and case timing before confirming quantities.
1️⃣0️⃣ Fujairah vs Singapore gap
Bottom-line impact
Signal Importance
  • These two hubs set the bunker tone for AG to Asia routes.
  • Gap direction affects speed choice and lift timing on both ballast and laden legs.
  • Different HSFO availability and quality patterns can change the scrubber advantage even if headline prices look similar.
Triggers and actions
  • Fujairah turns cheaper on delivered terms → lift larger before sailing and consider a modest speed increase if scrubber economics are strong.
  • Singapore discounts open up → defer part of the lift to Singapore and keep ROB tight out of the Gulf.
  • Hi5 wider in one hub → shift HSFO lifts there for scrubber ships and keep VLSFO lifts at the cheaper hub for non scrubber ships.
  • Lead times stretch at either hub → split lifts or pull forward to avoid barge and queue risk near laycans.
Quick read guide
Each morning log VLSFO, HSFO, Hi5, barge fees, earliest delivery, and typical waiting for Fujairah and Singapore. Convert the gap into a delivered cost per ton for your next consumption window. If the gap exceeds the time value of any detour or delay, lift at the cheaper hub. If not, split lifts or defer to the next workable hub.
Common pitfalls
  • Comparing posted prices without barge, anchorage, and quality adjustments.
  • Over lifting cheap fuel and creating draft or trim penalties at the next port.
  • Ignoring HSFO grade availability or compatibility when switching suppliers mid voyage.
Operator checklist
  • Record VLSFO and HSFO benchmarks, Hi5, barge fees, and earliest delivery at both hubs.
  • Compute delivered cost and detour time value for the next lift window.
  • Align lift size with draft limits, QA plan, and expected weather on route.
  • Cross check with routing choice, AG list, and schedule buffers before confirming quantities.
1️⃣1️⃣ Alternative fuels check
Bottom-line impact
Signal Importance
  • LNG price versus VLSFO sets the fuel switching break even for dual fuel ships.
  • Biofuel blends can enhance charterability on some lanes if supply and certification are firm.
  • Availability by hub and lead time determine whether alternative fuels are operationally workable.
Triggers and actions
  • LNG discount to VLSFO widens on your route → switch primary burn on dual fuel tonnage and plan LNG lift windows early.
  • Biofuel blend offered at your next hub with certification → consider a partial blend lift for commercial premium if engine maker limits are met.
  • Supply tight or certification unclear → defer and stick to conventional grades to protect schedule and engine health.
Quick read guide
Confirm which ships are dual fuel or blend approved. Check LNG and biofuel pricing and availability at your next two hubs. Verify engine and OEM limits for blend ratios and any tank cleaning needs. If the price and supply line up with schedule, lift a sensible tranche and monitor performance and consumption closely.
Common pitfalls
  • Assuming dual fuel readiness across the fleet without checking vessel documentation.
  • Using high biofuel blends without verifying engine maker limits and compatibility.
  • Underestimating lead times for bunkering infrastructure and barge slots at alternative fuel hubs.
Operator checklist
  • Identify dual fuel ships and approved biofuel blend ratios per vessel.
  • Confirm supply, certification, and lead times for LNG or biofuel at planned hubs.
  • Align lift quantity with tank segregation, ROB policy, and draft limits.
  • Record engine performance and consumption after switching to validate economics.
1️⃣2️⃣ Route linked bunker plan
Bottom-line impact
Signal Importance
  • Route choice sets voyage days, hub sequence, and grade needs.
  • ECA entry, canal transits, and time in zone change fuel specs and lift size.
  • Aligning lifts to route avoids detours, queues, and draft penalties that erode TCE.
Triggers and actions
  • Suez chosen → plan compliant fuel near ECA waypoints and confirm Singapore lift if prices favor Asia.
  • Cape chosen → size lifts for longer leg, prefer the cheaper AG or ARA hub, and check weather buffers.
  • Panama in plan → verify canal timings and consider USG or Caribbean top up to avoid late queues.
  • War risk exposure on route → add security cost line and keep lift flexibility if advisories change.
  • Seasonal swell or monsoon risk → move from anchorage to alongside delivery and adjust lift windows.
Quick read guide
Build two cases before fixing. Case Suez and Case Cape or Panama. For each, list hub sequence, VLSFO and HSFO prices, Hi5, lead times, ECAs, and any fees. Choose the route with the higher net per day and lock bunker orders that match that corridor. Keep a small optional tranche for late changes.
Common pitfalls
  • Ordering bunkers before routing is final and paying to unwind.
  • Over carrying cheap fuel and taking draft or trim penalties at next ports.
  • Missing ECA switchover points and mixing grades due to weak segregation.
  • Ignoring lead time spreads across hubs near laycans.
Operator checklist
  • Confirm route, ECAs, and canal transits in writing before placing bunker orders.
  • Match lift ports to the four hub ladder and current Hi5.
  • Book barge slots that align with pilotage and berth windows.
  • Set reserve policy by route length, weather, and inspection risk.
  • Keep an optional top up at the next hub to handle schedule shifts.

Use these 12 tiles as a daily bunker rhythm. Check the Hi5 at the four hubs, confirm lead times, and line up routing before you place orders. Match scrubber ships to the strongest spreads, keep QA tight, and size lifts to your next consumption window. One clear call on where to lift and how fast to sail will flow straight into stronger TCE and fewer surprises on the voyage.

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